An Internet of Beings: Synthetic Biology and the Age of Biological Computing

Food and water security: Analysis of integrated modeling platforms

Agriculture production is directly dependent on climate change and weather. Possible changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration are expected to significantly impact crop growth and ultimately we lose our crop productivity and indirectly affect the sustainable food availability issue. The overall impact of climate change on worldwide food production is considered to be low to moderate with successful adaptation and adequate irrigation. Climate change has a serious impact on the availability of various resources on the earth especially water, which sustains life on this planet. The global food security situation and outlook remains delicately imbalanced amid surplus food production and the prevalence of hunger, due to the complex interplay of social, economic, and ecological factors that mediate food security outcomes at various human and institutional scales. Weather aberration poses complex challenges in terms of increased variability and risk for food producers and the energy and water sectors. Changes in the biosphere, biodiversity and natural resources are adversely affecting human health and quality of life. Throughout the 21st century, India is projected to experience warming above global level. India will also begin to experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than summers. Longevity of heat waves across India has extended in recent years with warmer night temperatures and hotter days, and this trend is expected to continue. Strategic research priorities are outlined for a range of sectors that underpin global food security, including: agriculture, ecosystem services from agriculture, climate change, international trade, water management solutions, the water-energy-food security nexus, service delivery to smallholders and women farmers, and better governance models and regional priority setting. There is a need to look beyond agriculture and invest in affordable and suitable farm technologies if the problem of food insecurity is to be addressed in a sustainable manner. Introduction Globally, agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. This vulnerability is relatively higher in India in view of the large population depending on agriculture and poor coping capabilities of small and marginal farmers. Impacts of climate change pose a serious threat to food security. “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (World Food Summit, 1996). This definition gives rise to four dimensions of food security: availability of food, accessibility (economically and physically), utilization (the way it is used and assimilated by the human body) and stability of these three dimensions. According to the United Nations, in 2015, there are still 836 million people in the world living in extreme poverty (less than USD1.25/day) (UN, 2015). And according to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), at least 70 percent of the very poor live in rural areas, most of them depending partly (or completely) on agriculture for their livelihoods. It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farms in the developing world are supporting almost 2 billion people, and in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa these small farms produce about 80 percent of the food consumed. Climate change threatens to reverse the progress made so far in the fight against hunger and malnutrition. As highlighted by the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC), climate change augments and intensifies risks to food security for the most vulnerable countries and populations. Few of the major risks induced by climate change, as identified by IPCC have direct consequences for food security (IPCC, 2007). These are mainly to loss of rural livelihoods and income, loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, livelihoods loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems and food insecurity (breakdown of food systems). Rural farmers, whose livelihood depends on the use of natural resources, are likely to bear the brunt of adverse impacts. Most of the crop simulation model runs and experiments under elevated temperature and carbon dioxide indicate that by 2030, a 3-7% decline in the yield of principal cereal crops like rice and wheat is likely in India by adoption of current production technologies. Global warming impacts growth, reproduction and yields of food and horticulture crops, increases crop water requirement, causes more soil erosion, increases thermal stress on animals leading to decreased milk yields and change the distribution and breeding season of fisheries. Fast changing climatic conditions, shrinking land, water and other natural resources with rapid growing population around the globe has put many challenges before us (Mukherjee, 2014). Food is going to be second most challenging issue for mankind in time to come. India will also begin to experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than summers (Christensen et al., 2007). Climate change is posing a great threat to agriculture and food security in India and it's subcontinent. Water is the most critical agricultural input in India, as 55% of the total cultivated areas do not have irrigation facilities. Currently we are able to secure food supplies under these varying conditions. Under the threat of climate variability, our food grain production system becomes quite comfortable and easily accessible for local people. India's food grain production is estimated to rise 2 per cent in 2020-21 crop years to an all-time high of 303.34 million tonnes on better output of rice, wheat, pulse and coarse cereals amid good monsoon rains last year. In the 2019-20 crop year, the country's food grain output (comprising wheat, rice, pulses and coarse cereals) stood at a record 297.5 million tonnes (MT). Releasing the second advance estimates for 2020-21 crop year, the agriculture ministry said foodgrain production is projected at a record 303.34 MT. As per the data, rice production is pegged at record 120.32 MT as against 118.87 MT in the previous year. Wheat production is estimated to rise to a record 109.24 MT in 2020-21 from 107.86 MT in the previous year, while output of coarse cereals is likely to increase to 49.36 MT from 47.75 MT. Pulses output is seen at 24.42 MT, up from 23.03 MT in 2019-20 crop year. In the non-foodgrain category, the production of oilseeds is estimated at 37.31 MT in 2020-21 as against 33.22 MT in the previous year. Sugarcane production is pegged at 397.66 MT from 370.50 MT in the previous year, while cotton output is expected to be higher at 36.54 million bales (170 kg each) from 36.07. This production figure seem to be sufficient for current population, but we need to improve more and more with vertical farming and advance agronomic and crop improvement tools for future burgeoning population figure under the milieu of climate change issue. Our rural mass and tribal people have very limited resources and they sometime complete depend on forest microhabitat. To order to ensure food and nutritional security for growing population, a new strategy needs to be initiated for growing of crops in changing climatic condition. The country has a large pool of underutilized or underexploited fruit or cereals crops which have enormous potential for contributing to food security, nutrition, health, ecosystem sustainability under the changing climatic conditions, since they require little input, as they have inherent capabilities to withstand biotic and abiotic stress. Apart from the impacts on agronomic conditions of crop productions, climate change also affects the economy, food systems and wellbeing of the consumers (Abbade, 2017). Crop nutritional quality become very challenging, as we noticed that, zinc and iron deficiency is a serious global health problem in humans depending on cereal-diet and is largely prevalent in low-income countries like Sub-Saharan Africa, and South and South-east Asia. We report inefficiency of modern-bred cultivars of rice and wheat to sequester those essential nutrients in grains as the reason for such deficiency and prevalence (Debnath et al., 2021). Keeping in mind the crop yield and nutritional quality become very daunting task to our food security issue and this can overcome with the proper and time bound research in cognizance with the environment. Threat and challenges In recent years, climate change has become a debatable issue worldwide. South Asia will be one of the most adversely affected regions in terms of impacts of climate change on agricultural yield, economic activity and trading policies. Addressing climate change is central for global future food security and poverty alleviation. The approach would need to implement strategies linked with developmental plans to enhance its adaptive capacity in terms of climate resilience and mitigation. Over time, there has been a visible shift in the global climate change initiative towards adaptation. Adaptation can complement mitigation as a cost-effective strategy to reduce climate change risks. The impact of climate change is projected to have different effects across societies and countries. Mitigation and adaptation actions can, if appropriately designed, advance sustainable development and equity both within and across countries and between generations. One approach to balancing the attention on adaptation and mitigation strategies is to compare the costs and benefits of both the strategies. The most imminent change is the increase in the atmospheric temperatures due to increase levels of GHGs (Green House Gases) i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) etc into the atmosphere. The global mean annual temperatures at the end of the 20th

Water security and food security in the Indus basin are highly interlinked and subject to severe stresses. Irrigation water demands presently already exceed what the basin can sustainably provide, but per-capita food availability remains limited. Rapid population growth and climate change are projected to further intensify pressure on the interdependencies between water and food security. The agricultural system of the Indus basin must therefore change and adapt to be able to achieve the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The development of robust policies to guide such changes requires a thorough understanding of the synergies and trade-offs that different strategies for agricultural development may have for water and food security. In this study, we defined three contrasting trajectories for agricultural system change based on a review of scientific literature on regional agricultural developments and a stakeholder consultation workshop. We assessed the consequences of these trajectories for water and food security with a spatially explicit modeling framework for two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change over the period 1980–2080. Our results demonstrate that agricultural system changes can ensure per capita food production in the basin remains sufficient under population growth. However, such changes require additional irrigation water resources and may strongly aggravate water stress. Conversely, a shift to sustainable water management can reduce water stress but has the consequence that basin-level food self-sufficiency may not be feasible in future. This suggests that biophysical limits likely exist that prevent agricultural system changes to ensure both sufficient food production and improve water security in the Indus basin under strong population growth. Our study concludes that agricultural system changes are an important adaptation mechanism toward achieving water and food SDGs, but must be developed alongside other strategies that can mitigate its adverse trade-offs.

This chapter has attempted to focus on the effects of climate change that are likely to affect the food and water security needs of global community. We, as a global community of researchers and policy-makers, must initiate joint efforts to develop innovative technologies, values of good governance of collaboration rather than competition and globally acceptable policies to mitigate the effects of climate change by reducing greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Since agriculture is one of main contributors of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, agricultural community and food industry need to play a positive and supportive role in curbing greenhouse gas emissions like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxide to the atmosphere. Farmers need to adopt carbon sequestration farming practices and cutting-edge tools to reduce greenhouse gases emissions. The development of climate-smart solutions including digital farming, improved plant technologies, innovative irrigation methods like drip irrigation, reduced tillage and good nutrient management practices for crop production will reduce agriculture’s impact on climate change. Digital tools and precision agriculture techniques to make on-site decisions to grow more food on less acreage, offering the potential to reduce the number of acres, are needed to feed a growing population. This chapter presents the results of two case studies, one conducted in India and second in the Midwestern part of the USA. These studies investigated the effect of climate change on crop productivity and water security. The results of both studies indicated that future research needs to focus on optimizing input use efficiency to sustain natural resources for attaining food and water security. Elevated CO2 emissions from agriculture and increasing temperatures should become the focus of future research to mitigate climate change. On-farm management systems (tillage, crop rotations, irrigation practices, and nutrient and pest management) and resource conservation technologies need to be developed for local landscapes in different regions of the world. Incentive-based policies need to be developed for the adoption of future farming and water use systems, and innovative practices must be shared among countries to assure food security.

Published in Agron. J. 107:1524–1525 (2015) doi:10.2134/agronj15.0909 Available freely online through the author-supported open access option. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Agronomy, 5585 Guilford Road, Madison, WI 53711. All rights reserved. No part of this periodical may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. F.F. Vocasek, Servi-Tech Laboratories, Dodge City, KS 67801; G.A. Peterson (retired), Soil and Crop Sciences Dep., 301 University Ave., Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO 80523. Received 5 May 2015. Accepted 5 May 2015. *Corresponding author (Gary.Peterson@ colostate.edu). The American Society of Agronomy (ASA) created the Water Security for Agriculture Task Force at its annual meeting in San Antonio, TX, in 2011. The “Task Force” was proposed by the ASA Science Policy Committee as follows:

A review of food and water security in the context of sustainable development is the purpose of this study. Food and water security are complicated sustainable development challenges that are linked to both health and sustainable economic development through malnutrition. These are contained in the sustainable development SDGs such as 2 and 6 (Zero Hunger) (Sanitation and clean water). This paper is a review of food and water security that has to do with the conceptual issues, stylized facts on food and water security, food and water security nexus, factors militating against food security around the world, related empirical studies and way forward, Having pointed out some of the factors militating against food and water security such global warming/ climate change, disease outbreak and insecurity etc. strong conclusion and recommendation were made such as fight against insecurity and diseases outbreak, good sanitation and hygiene should also be promoted and sustained, good agricultural policy formation and implementation amongst other things will play out to promote food and water security, hence, to achieve sustainable economic development.

Facing Global Environmental Change

Given the role of the agricultural sector in consuming critical resources like water and energy, a balance should be achieved between the harvest and exploitation of these resources and the amount of agricultural produce by their proper management. Security measurement indicators are a criterion for managerial evaluating of farmers regarding water, food, and energy security nexus. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate a tool for managerial evaluating of farmers as the best local facilitators regarding the water, food, and energy security nexus in two phases. The geographical scope of the research is Iran. The first phase was related to reviewing the previous literature and extracting indicators for measuring water, food, and energy security, and the second phase focused on validation. The face and content validity of the questionnaire were conducted quantitatively and qualitatively by surveying subject matter experts and calculating CVR and CVI. The results identified 85 indicators for the managerial evaluation of farmers in three areas of water security (30 indicators), food security (37 indicators), and energy security (18 indicators). The use of soil moisture control, pressurized irrigation (access dimension), groundwater resources (availability dimension), and salinity-resistant cultivars (stability dimension) were significantly valid in measuring water security. Achieving product direct sale marketing (access dimension), using early yielding cultivars (availability dimension), and producing organic products in farms and orchards and attention to the calendar and planting time in the production process (dimension of stability) were the highly valid indicators in food safety assessment. Moreover, the most valid indicators in the field of energy security measurement were energy consumed to produce and transport the product (accessibility dimension), use of geothermal energy resources (availability dimension), and bioenergy production rate (stability dimension). Challenges to achieving water, food, and energy security at the farm level can be minimized using the extracted indicators and correct management principles obtained from reviewing the indicators. Therefore, researchers, planners, decision-makers, and executives in agriculture and horticulture are recommended to use these indicators approved by subject matter experts.

Latin America faces a severe health crisis, where over 150 million people lack reliable access to water due to climate change. We conducted a mixed-methods study to understand perspectives and experiences surrounding water security and its relationship to climate change among predominantly Indigenous mothers in Maras, a rural Andean district in the Urubamba Province of Peru. A verbal survey was administered to 100 pregnant women and/or caregivers of children under 11 years of age. Surveys included questions on demographics, water sources and storage practices, water and food insecurity, and perceptions of climate change. Among survey participants, a subgroup of 22 mothers took part in focus group interviews to understand their personal experiences and concerns regarding water insecurity and climate change. Most survey respondents (92%) experienced water insecurity. Qualitative findings revealed multiple facets of water insecurity including quantity, quality, and predictability of water. Water insecurity had negative impacts on household sanitation, hygiene, and agricultural production, and thus income generation and food security. Household- and community-level strategies to deal with water insecurity include: (i) revitalization of ancient practices to maintain natural water sources, (ii) water recycling, and (iii) reforestation. Findings in this study highlight the extent of water insecurity and the resulting challenges faced by Indigenous community members within Peru. By understanding the multifaceted experiences of these communities facing the crisis of water insecurity, we can explore solutions and advocate for proactive measures to help Indigenous populations address the growing threat of climate change.

This study aims to integrate underutilized crops (UCs) into the food system to address climate change impacts, and food -water insecurity. UCs have immense potential to mitigate food shortages, yet their role remains largely unexplored in mainstream agricultural and food security strategies. A multidisciplinary approach using social psychology, resource-based theory (RBT), and a new ecological paradigm was used to investigate factors influencing UCs adoption and their potential contribution to water and food insecurity in South Africa. The water poverty index (WPI) and household food insecurity access score (HFIAS) were used to determine the water and food insecurity status of rural households. The study found that UCs cultivation was driven by awareness, access to extension advisory services, and climate information. The findings indicate that adopting UCs significantly improves water and food insecurity in South Africa. Consequently, households that integrated UCs into their farming systems experienced higher WPI scores, reflecting improved water availability and conservation, as UCs require less water than conventional crops. Likewise, lower HFIAS values suggest that UCs enhance food insecurity by diversifying diets, stabilizing food access, and reducing seasonal hunger. Statistically, households in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and North-West provinces who adopted UCs saw 25.18 (21%), 31.03 (26%), and 28.77 (24%) rise in WPI and HFIAS compared to those who did not embrace UCs, respectively. These results highlight the potential of UCs as climate-resilient crops that mitigate water scarcity and food insecurity, making them a viable strategy for enhancing rural livelihoods amid climate change. Therefore, prioritizing UCs cultivation could build more resilient agricultural systems, address water scarcity and improve food security.

The Origins of the Syrian Conflict: Climate Change and Human Security

Climate change impacts on water security in global drylands

Agricultural development plays an important role in the economies of the Mediterranean African Countries. Food demand is increasing in the Mediterranean African Countries and consumption patterns are changing. The countries face common challenges in their strategy to improve food security. The most significant challenges are a rapid population growth, urbanisation, dependency on rainfed agriculture with fluctuating yields, water scarcity, increased water demands, and challenges in water quality. Water scarcity has reached a critical point in the region, and the dependency on rainfall makes the Mediterranean African Countries extra vulnerable to climate changes. The Mediterranean African Countries offers plenty of opportunities for agricultural development: Availability of arable land, a temperate Mediterranean climate with year-round production possibilities, and a growing consumer market. A number of different efforts had been made in the past to quantify the Water Stress and Water Vulnerability in the past. Within this study, the 2016 AWDO framework had been used to allow a more consistent comparison of information both with previous and forthcoming international studies. Water Security and Water Vulnerability are considered as interrelated terms, where the one is the inverse of the other. Water Security had however gained over the recent decades a more prominent standing in the international community or donors, scientists, and policy makers. Depicting Water Security leads inevitably to the question, “security for whom”? The 2016 AWDO framework was developed within the Asian Water Development Outlook to offer a consistent approach for the Household Water Security, the Economic Water Security, the Urban Water Security, the Environmental Water Security and the Resilience to Water Related Disasters, referred to as the five key dimensions. By this the framework follows the classical People, Planet, and Profit paradigm as being applied in determining the sustainable development while adding a special focus on the urban situation and water risks. The full AWDO 2016 framework requires a rather large amount of data. Concentrating on the dimension of the Economic Water Security offers instead a good trade off, allowing to reduce the number of input data while at the same time providing a sufficient diversity in the consideration of other sectors. In this view, the Economic Water Security as defined in the 2016 AWDO framework has been used to determine relevant aspects for the Water Security in Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. Water Stress is considered as the ratio of Total Withdrawal over Total Renewable Freshwater Resources. A nested framework had been applied to depict first the Water Stress and other key information on the water resource availability for all river basins in Tunisia and Morocco as well as for the different irrigation areas in Egypt. The related results had been then aggregated at national scale in order to calculate the Economic Water Security Index at national scale under the use of further socio-economic statistics. This aggregation had been necessary as the requested socio-economic background information could not been provided at the scale of river basins (Morocco, Tunisia) or irrigation areas in Egypt. In order to depict possible changes as a result of climate change and an increase in consumption, climate model ensemble runs from the CORDEX data base have been used to elaborate future aspects on the availability of water resources on the scale of catchments and in the case of Egypt on the irrigation areas instead. The results of this analysis are suited to provide a detailed insight on spatial variations of Water Stress. There is a high variability of rainfall in the coastal areas of Morocco, distinct north south variations of water availability in Tunisia, and a comparable uniform situation in Egypt because of distributing the Nile water in irrigation channels up to the Nile river delta. The score of the 2016 AWDO Economic Water Security is not affected by weighting factors and the results of the study allow hence a comparison amongst the countries. Additionally, the results underline possible pathways to use selected indicators of the AWDO framework as so called anchor indicators and to route relevant insights across the scales. Future effort should be spent to investigate further the possible effects from the aggregation process and to which extend the framework is suited to reflect pilots for introducing wastewater adequately. For determining the wastewater reuse potentials in irrigation, different maps have been elaborated for Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. As a result, priority areas are highlighted, where the close vicinity of wastewater production and existing of irrigated areas would favour interventions to implement wastewater reuse schemes. The findings of this study indicate the added value of applying elements from the 2016 AWDO Framework to allow a systematic reflection and comparison of key information to characterise water stress and Water Security.

The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global trade

Increasing population and augmented demand for food have put burden on water resources, crops, and livestock for future sustainability. Pakistan is facing difficulties of water shortage, low crops and livestock productivity, meagre livelihood, and intensive food insecurity. Hence, this study was conducted in Pakistan to explore the nexus of climate change, irrigation water, agriculture, rural livelihoods, and food security. The study is based on primary data of 1080 farmers gathered from 12 districts of the rice-wheat and cotton-wheat cropping systems. A partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to compute the nexus. Findings of path analysis indicated that climate change had a significant negative impact on irrigation water, crops, livestock, rural livelihood, and food security in both cropping systems. There was positive relationship between surface water and crops. In addition, groundwater and crops were also positively and significantly correlated. The impact of crop was positive and significant on rural livelihood and food security. Furthermore, rural livelihood and food security were positively and significantly influenced by livestock. Moreover, there was positive relationship between rural livelihood and food security. The cotton-wheat cropping system was more affected by climatic and natural hazards than rice-wheat cropping system. Interconnectivity among nexus components and their contribution to rural livelihood and food security indicate that government, policymakers, and other concerned stakeholders should effectively improve food security policies under climatic and natural hazards. Moreover, it helps in examining adverse impacts of hazards induced by climate change on nexus components, leading to the designing and adoption of sustainable climate change policies. The study's originality lies in its ability to provide a inclusive and integrated pathway of the interconnections and interdependencies among these variables, identifying key drivers of food insecurity in Pakistan. Moreover, outcome of the study has policy implications for developing sustainable policies and strategies to improve sustainable food security in the country.