An Intelligent Kick Detection Model for Large-Hole Ultra-Deep Wells in the Sichuan Basin

Abstract

The Sichuan Basin has abundant deep and ultra-deep natural gas resources, making it a primary target for exploration and the development of China’s oil and gas industry. However, during the drilling of ultra-deep wells in the Sichuan Basin, complex geological conditions frequently lead to gas kicks, posing significant challenges to well control and safety. Compared to traditional kick detection methods, artificial intelligence technology can improve the accuracy and timeliness of kick detection. However, there are limited real-world kick data available from drilling operations, and the datasets are extremely imbalanced, making it difficult to train intelligent models with sufficient accuracy and generalization capabilities. To address this issue, this paper proposes a kick data augmentation method based on a time-series generative adversarial network (TimeGAN). This method generates synthetic kick samples from real datasets and then employs a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to extract multivariate time-series features of surface drilling parameters. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) network is used for data classification tasks, constructing an intelligent kick detection model. Using real drilling data from ultra-deep wells in the SY block of the Sichuan Basin, the effects of k-fold cross-validation, data dimensionality, various imbalanced data handling techniques, and the sample imbalance ratio on the model’s kick detection performance are analyzed. Ablation experiments are also conducted to assess the contribution of each module in identifying kick. The results show that TimeGAN outperforms other imbalanced data handling techniques. The accuracy, recall, precision, and F1-score of the kick identification model are highest when the sample imbalance ratio is at 1 but decrease as the imbalance ratio increases. This indicates that maintaining a balance between positive and negative samples is essential for training a reliable intelligent kick detection model. The trained model is applied during the drilling of seven ultra-deep wells in Sichuan, demonstrating its effectiveness and accuracy in real-world kick detection.