An integrated simulation-optimization modelling approach for sustainability assessment of electricity generation system

Abstract

Devising a concrete plan for power supply should conduct the best technology-capacity-time strategy while satisfying fuel, infrastructure, and trading constraints. Addressing sustainability concerning stakeholders' opinions aligned with upstream policies escalates the problem, demanding new reliable frameworks. This paper aims to develop an integrated simulation–optimization decision support system for electricity generation planning. A differential evolution algorithm simulates the future power supply configurations. A linear programming model characterizes the optimal pathways towards those futures. Multi-criteria decision-making methods are also included for determining the preference weights of sustainability indicators and ranking the scenarios. The proposed framework offers a sustainable plan for Iran by 2050. The sustainability criteria are tracked and compared with a business as usual (BAU) scheme. The results show that the broader deployment of wind turbine primarily, solar thermal subsequently, is the major source of difference in the sustainable expansion compared to BAU. Those technologies along with photovoltaics, contribute to 48% of the generation at the end of the planning horizon. However, the findings indicate that even the extensive utilization of renewable energy sources cannot guarantee sustainability improvement all through the planning period. Thus, supply-side plans should be appropriately supported by demand-side strategies.