An Integrated Framework for the Assessment of the Impacts of Uncertainty in Construction Projects Using Dynamic Network Simulation

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for analysis of the impacts of uncertainty on the performance of construction projects using a multi-node, multi-link and dynamic network analysis framework. In the proposed framework, the network representations of construction project organizations are created using a meta-network consisting of different types of node entities (e.g., agents, information, resources, and tasks) and different relationships between these entities. Accordingly, the impacts of uncertain events are captured based on perturbations in the node entities and the subsequent changes in the topological structure of project network. The application of the proposed framework is demonstrated using a case study related to a tunneling project. The results of the analysis are twofold. First, the results identify the node entities that are critical for the success of a project. Second, the results capture the impacts of uncertain events on the performance of the project organization based on simulation of different scenarios. The results highlight the capability of the proposed framework in capturing the complex interactions in project organizations and enabling an integrated analysis of organization vulnerability under uncertain scenarios.