An Innovative Approach for Modeling Cumulative Effect of Variations in the Land Use/Land Cover Factors on Regional Persistence of the Persian Leopard

Abstract

Cumulative effect of various land use and land cover variables that eventually affect suitability level of set/sets of habitats is a main concern in wildlife habitat conservation efforts. Even though, there have been various methodologies to identify the factors that influence probability of species persistence, survival, or occurrence in a particular habitat, no research has been conducted to assess the cumulative effects of LU/LC variations on the Persian leopard regional persistence (e.g., in several provinces, regions). Innovative formulation of the species and area specific regional indices, sub-indices, and threshold levels was carried out concerning the Persian leopard persistence in various regions of Iran (see chapter 3 for classification of regions). Regional and provincial values were assessed for the density of several variables including protected area, national park, wildlife reserve, forest, range lands, dry farming and irrigated farming, city, main and sub roads, village and human population. Principle Component Analysis and regression curve estimation techniques are the main analysis methods used in this study. Developing two types of empirically fitted models allows for adjusting the density of land use and land cover variables in a way to ensure that leopard persistence is not affected by the cumulative effect of the variables. Accordingly, current status of all provinces of Iran in relation to the cumulative effects of land use and land cover variables comparing to the corresponding threshold values together with relative conservation strategy is demonstrated in this chapter. Also, the findings support that the Persian leopard range in Iran is in the process of a major fragmentation into the northern and southern parts. Furthermore, this approach provides an insight to the managers and decision makers in order to identify wildlife friendly solutions in LU/LC and development planning. Since the leopard is an umbrella species, this model could be used to improve conservation status of the other co-existed species in leopard habitats (e.g., gray wolf, brown bear, wild goat, wild sheep, red deer, roe deer, etc.). Due to the fact that this innovative approach is on the basis of the data assessed about the Persian leopard in a regional context in Iran, the models are considered to be species and region specific. However, the same technical procedures can be modified using the area specific data for the leopard or other species in other countries and regions.