An improved typhoon risk model coupled with mitigation capacity and its relationship to disaster losses

Environmental risk assessment and comprehensive index model of disaster loss for COVID-19 transmission

The changing global climate and rapid urbanization make extreme rainstorm events frequent, and the flood disaster caused by rainstorm has become a prominent problem of urban public safety in China, which severely restricts the healthy and sustainable development of social economy. The weight calculation method of traditional risk assessment model is single and ignores the difference of multi-dimensional information space involved in risk analysis. This study constructs a flood risk assessment model by incorporating natural, social, and economic factors into an indicator system structured around four dimensions: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. A combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the entropy weight method is employed to optimize both subjective and objective weights. Taking the central urban area of Wuhan with a high flood risk as an example, based on the risk assessment values, spatial autocorrelation analysis, cluster analysis, outlier analysis, and hotspot analysis are applied to explore the spatial clustering characteristics of risks. The results show that the overall assessment level of flood hazard in central urban area of Wuhan is medium, the overall assessment level of exposure and vulnerability is low, and the overall disaster prevention and mitigation capability is medium. The overall flood risk levels in Wuchang and Jianghan are the highest, while some areas in Qingshan and Hanyang have the lowest levels. The spatial characteristics of each dimension evaluation index show obvious autocorrelation and spatial differentiation. These findings aim to provide valuable suggestions and references for reducing urban disaster risks and achieving sustainable urban development.

Comprehensive risk assessment of typhoon disasters in China's coastal areas based on multi-source geographic big data

Typhoon risk and climate-change impact assessment for cultural heritage asset roofs

Risk assessment for the sustainability of coastal communities: A preliminary study

Drought loss assessment model for southwest China based on a hyperbolic tangent function

Cyclones are one of the devastating natural hazards in the earth that have extensive consequences on both life and livelihood. Assessment of cyclone risk is important not only for the survival of people but also for designing adaptation strategies in major cyclone-prone areas. Risk can be defined as the integrated function of vulnerability, hazard, and mitigation capacity. Risk assessment is a very protracted task needing analysis of multiple factors which are also changes with changing geographical location. Thus, we applied the multi-criteria decision-making technique to assess the block-level risk to cyclone in the Sundarban region, India. The weight-based analysis reveals that nearness to coastline and distance from cyclone tract have the greatest vulnerability exposure; windspeed has the highest hazard score; and nearness to cyclone shelter and cyclone awareness, on the other hand, has utmost mitigation capacity to cyclone risk analysis. The risk analysis shows that out of the total blocks (19) in the Sundarban, nearly half of the blocks are with very high to moderate cyclone risk with the least mitigation capacity to cope with such natural hazards. The blocks like Gosaba and Kultali to be found in the southern portions and nearby to the coast exposed more risk to cyclone while those situated farther to the coast in the central and northern parts exposed low risk. The findings of the present study may have high implications for developing more mitigation capacity in a very-high- to a moderate-cyclone-risk area. Therefore, the applied approach can help the local authorities in identifying vulnerable and hazard areas and building actionable strategies for mitigation and reworked copy of cyclone hazards in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve.

Hormesis: from marginalization to mainstream: A case for hormesis as the default dose-response model in risk assessment

BackgroundOccupational hazards such as solvents and noise in the electronics industry are serious. Although various occupational health risk assessment models have been applied in the electronics industry, they have only been used to assess the risks of individual job positions. Few existing studies have focused on the total risk level of critical risk factors in enterprises.MethodsTen electronics enterprises were selected for this study. Information, air samples and physical factor measurements were collected from the selected enterprises through on-site investigation, and then the data were collated and samples were tested according to the requirements of Chinese standards. The Occupational Health Risk Classification and Assessment Model (referred to as the Classification Model), the Occupational Health Risk Grading and Assessment Model (referred to as the Grading Model), and the Occupational Disease Hazard Evaluation Model were used to assess the risks of the enterprises. The correlations and differences between the three models were analyzed, and the results of the models were validated by the average risk level of all of the hazard factors.ResultsHazards with concentrations exceeding the Chinese occupational exposure limits (OELs) were methylene chloride, 1,2-dichloroethane, and noise. The exposure time of workers ranged from 1 to 11 h per day and the frequency of exposure ranged from 5 to 6 times per week. The risk ratios (RRs) of the Classification Model, the Grading Model and the Occupational Disease Hazard Evaluation Model were 0.70 ± 0.10, 0.34 ± 0.13, and 0.65 ± 0.21, respectively. The RRs for the three risk assessment models were statistically different (P < 0.001), and there were no correlations between them (P > 0.05). The average risk level of all of the hazard factors was 0.38 ± 0.18, which did not differ from the RRs of the Grading Model (P > 0.05).ConclusionsThe hazards of organic solvents and noise in the electronics industry are not negligible. The Grading Model offers a good reflection of the actual risk level of the electronics industry and has strong practicability.

Recent health risk assessments to propose a Reference Dose (RfD) for acetone (Forsyth, 2001; U.S. EPA, 2001) have been based on the results of an oral subchronic study conducted in rats and mice (Dietz et al., 1991; NTP, 1991). These assessments have utilized the traditional concept of establishing the RfD by determining the lowest experimentally determined No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Level (NOAEL) and applying various Uncertainty Factors (UFs) (U.S. EPA, 1988). This article describes a risk assessment for acetone based on the systemic toxicity observed in subchronic and developmental toxicity studies to estimate an RfD and an inhalation reference concentration (RfC) for acetone. Specifically, this approach examined the subchronic study by Dietz et al. (1991), as well as an inhalation developmental toxicity study on acetone (Mast et al., 1988) and several toxicology studies of isopropanol (IPA). This was accomplished by applying a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model developed previously for IPA and its metabolite acetone (Clewell et al., 2001). The incorporation of the PBPK model into the derivation of an RfD and RfC for acetone allowed for a tissue-based approach rather than an external exposure-based approach, making it possible to derive an oral RfD from an inhalation study. In addition, the use of the PBPK model to analyze data from chronic and reproductive/developmental studies conducted with IPA enabled an assessment of the potential for acetone to produce any of the effects observed in the IPA studies. This analysis provided sufficient information to reduce the need for UFs in the adjustment of the NOAEL from the oral subchronic study for the determination of an RfD. Using the PBPK model in the acetone risk assessment supports a composite UF of 60 for the subchronic study, compared to composite factors of 300 to 3000 in the other recent risk assessments. This difference resulted in an RfD of 16 mg/kg/d, compared to the values of 0.3 to 3 that have previously been estimated (Forsyth, 2001; U.S. EPA, 2001). Considering the results from the inhalation developmental study (Mast et al., 1988) resulted in an RfD of 8.7 mg/kg/d. Using this study also fills a data gap for acetone that exists if only the oral database for acetone is considered for RfD derivation. An RfC of 29ppm was also estimated for acetone using the Mast et al. (1988) study results in combination with the PBPK model. The potential impact of endogenous acetone on a risk assessment for acetone is also discussed.

The Impact of Climate and Socioeconomic Change on Typhoon Losses in China

Purpose In recent years, flooding disasters have occurred frequently in major cities, in order to improve urban safety and reduce flooding disaster losses. With four urban areas in Zhengzhou City as the research object, it aims to provide a reference basis for the risk management and control of heavy rainfall and flooding disaster in Zhengzhou City. Methods From the four aspects of urban flooding disaster causative factor risk, sensitivity of the breeding environment, vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, 12 evaluation indicators were selected to construct the Zhengzhou city flood disaster risk assessment system. Based on the hierarchical analysis method (AHP) and entropy weight method (EWM) to get the weights of the combination of indicators, and using fuzzy mathematical analysis method to analyse the risk of urban flooding disaster. Results The assessment results were analysed to conclude that Jinshui District has the highest urban flood risk disaster as high risk, followed by Erqi District, Guancheng District and Zhongyuan District as medium risk, and Huiji District has the lowest risk as low risk. Conclusion Develop a set of flood risk assessment model, and accordingly draw a flood risk coefficient map of Zhengzhou City, and then derive the engineering and non-engineering measures to deal with the flood disaster in Zhengzhou City.

Financial integrity is fundamental to the stability and sustainability of global financial systems, requiring robust internal audit mechanisms, comprehensive risk assessment models, and effective governance frameworks. This paper explores the role of an advanced internal audit risk assessment and governance model in enhancing financial integrity, addressing key challenges in financial oversight, and mitigating risks associated with fraud, regulatory non-compliance, and unethical financial practices. It begins by examining the theoretical foundations of internal auditing and governance, highlighting key models and frameworks that shape financial oversight practices. The paper then delves into the evolution of risk assessment methodologies, emphasizing the integration of artificial intelligence, predictive analytics, and data-driven auditing techniques to enhance risk detection and mitigation. A critical aspect of this study is the development of a sophisticated internal audit risk assessment model that leverages technological advancements to strengthen financial oversight. The paper outlines essential components of an effective risk assessment framework, emphasizing the role of data analytics, automated compliance monitoring, and industry benchmarks in improving financial transparency. Additionally, it presents case studies and industry best practices that demonstrate the effectiveness of enhanced risk assessment models in preventing financial irregularities. The governance framework proposed in this paper underscores the importance of corporate transparency, ethical leadership, regulatory compliance, and strong internal controls in ensuring financial integrity. It evaluates the impact of regulatory policies, including the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Basel Accords, and anti-money laundering frameworks, on corporate governance structures. Furthermore, the study highlights the role of cybersecurity risk management and blockchain-based audit mechanisms in strengthening financial accountability. Future research opportunities in audit risk assessment and governance are also discussed, with a focus on AI-driven audit systems, blockchain transparency solutions, behavioral governance models, and global regulatory harmonization. The paper concludes by providing strategic policy recommendations for financial institutions, regulatory bodies, and corporate entities, advocating for the integration of advanced analytics, enhanced whistle-blower protections, stronger cybersecurity governance, and cross-border regulatory cooperation. By implementing these measures, organizations can fortify financial integrity, mitigate systemic risks, and build a more transparent and resilient financial ecosystem.

Tropical cyclone is a common natural disaster, which causes detriment along its routine. In this paper, using the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) to conduct the risk assessment of tropical cyclones in the 15 coastal cities in China and analysis. Selecting 15 cities along the coast of China as the research object, the tropical cyclone disaster risk, the vulnerability of hazard-affected body, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity in preliminary evaluation. The evaluation index and 19 poor value are selected to standardize data processing, and then the weighted comprehensive evaluation method was used to obtain each evaluation index. On this basis, the comprehensive risk assessment system of tropical cyclone disaster was established, and the risk distribution of tropical cyclone in coastal areas of China was obtained. The results showed that: (1) Yangjiang, Haikou, Xiamen and other cities were seriously affected by tropical cyclones, and they were also high risk areas, so the early warning of tropical cyclones should be improved in this area; (2) The high value areas of vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies are mainly distributed in Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou and other cities; (3) Shantou, Yangjiang, Wenzhou and other cities are relatively weak in disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, these areas should strengthen investment in infrastructure and medical and health care. In general, the tropical cyclone risk index in the south coast of China is generally higher than that in the north coast.

Globally, the frequency, intensity, and damage rate of floods have increased extensively in the last few decades. The present study proposes a spatial-based multi-criteria approach integrating mitigation capacity to map the degree of flood risk. Flood risk is calculated considering 14 relevant factors under three risk components. Thematic layers were ranked through fuzzy membership functions, and risk components were prepared using fuzzy overlay operation. To make a comparison, first, we calculated risk with mitigation capacity and later without it. Results exhibit, without mitigation capacity around 67% of the study area is exposed to high flood risk, while after integrating mitigation capacity flood risks decreased to 62%. Moreover, validation evaluation suggests risk map integrating mitigation capacity is more accurate (82%) than the risk map without it (79%). Therefore, the developed integrated risk mapping approach is more efficient to assess flood risk, and can be implemented by policymakers in similar environments.