Abstract

From 1970 to 2018, either the Quebec Liberal Party or the Parti Quebecois won the elections in Quebec. The Coalition Avenir Quebec ended this long period of bipartisan alternation by winning a majority of seats in the 2018 election. Using datasets that cover five elections (2007, 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2018) over a period of 11 years, we provide a unique longitudinal perspective of citizens’ vote choice calculus. More specifically, we analyse long-term factors that are known to be crucial to make sense of electoral outcomes. Do factors such as generations, sex, attitudes towards Quebec sovereignty and party identification have the same weight in voters’ calculus over time? Our results show a relative stability, but also several interesting variations, especially regarding the effect of support for Quebec independence. This perspective deepens our understanding of recent political developments in Quebec politics.

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