An Examination of Basic and Applied International Crisis Research

Abstract

A grasp of crisis forecasting requires a working knowledge of (1) international crisis research–including conceptual and operational definitions of “crisis,” crisis escalation, perceptions and behavior during crises, crisis decision-making, crisis management, and specific case studies of individual crises; and (2) general forecasting—necessitating analyses of epistemological questions concerning forecasting, of forecasting methods both objective and subjective, and application of specific methods to problems in international relations. Crisis forecasting research itself is best broken down into the forecasting of levels of conflict, of war and violence, and of crises per se. After examining each area, the author argues that a great deal of research has been completed and that the prospects are excellent for future crisis, forecasting, and crisis forecasting research of a much more varied and comprehensive nature.