An Examination of a Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument and Its Relation to Religiosity and Recidivism Among Probationers in a Muslim Culture

Abstract

This study was conducted to assess the value of administering a risk/need assessment instrument to low-risk offenders in Pakistan. The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) and a measure of religiosity, the Muslim Religiosity-Personality Inventory (MRPI): Abridged Scale, were administered to probationers in this highly devout Muslim country that has little experience with risk/need assessment. In spite of the low recidivism rate, predictive validities based on correlation and receiver operating characteristic analyses were comparable with those of Western cultures overall, and for samples based on gender, geographic location, and type of crime. Although religiosity was negatively correlated with recidivism, it offered no incremental validity to the LS/CMI to predict recidivism because it was also correlated negatively with the LS/CMI. The findings have theoretical implications for the risk assessment of low-risk offenders and for the contribution of religiosity to offender risk and practical implications for the Pakistani justice system.