An exact solution of the extinction problem in supercritical multiplying systems

Abstract

Using the point model approximation and one-speed theory with no delayed neutrons, we have constructed a probability balance equation for neutrons by the backward method. This probability gives the distribution of neutrons in a multiplying medium at a given time and also the distribution that a chain will have generated a specified number of neutrons before extinction. We consider the limit of this probability for super and subcritical systems for long times after the initial triggering neutron. This leads to the extinction probability and to the individual probabilities of neutron population. To obtain specific results we have used a variety of models for the neutron multiplicity in the fission process, i.e. Poisson, birth and death, geometric and binomial. Exact solutions for the extinction probability have been obtained and its sensitivity to various parameters examined. Finally, we use the ‘quadratic approximation’ and assess its accuracy; it is found to overestimate the extinction probability and to be useful only for multiplication factors near unity.