Abstract
The hydrological extremes viz. droughts and floods, are global recurring natural hazards which are dynamic with respect to space and time impacting many people. The increase in the number of instances of these hydrological events in the past has steered the research in the direction towards evaluation of probability of occurrence of droughts and floods on a catchment scale, for proper planning and decision making in ideal allocation of the scarce water resources and mitigation of flood. Understanding and evaluating hydrological extremes becomes important in terms of sizing of storage reservoirs for combating droughts and floods, while its prediction becomes the key in reduction of its consequences. This study presents a summarized evaluation of probability of occurrence of floods and droughts in Bhavani basin of Kerala, using Herbst method, for a period of 40 years from 2002 to 2042, using streamflow data. As per the analysis, the most severe drought is expected to hit the basin in the year 2022- 2023 while the worst flood is expected in the year 2040 -2041. The novelty of the study is in applying the Herbst method for evaluating the probability of occurrence of floods in a catchment area without adopting rigorous hydrological modelling techniques.
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