Abstract
This study examines the inflation phenomenon employing monthly data set for the period 2002:01-2020:07 in Turkey. We separate the effects of dependency on imported intermediate goods and inputs in production using two different exchange rates. In this way, the direct effects arising from the USD / TL exchange rate and the indirect effects arising from the real effective exchange rate are revealed separately. In doing so, we also compare the sub-periods in which two separate trends occur in exchange rates. The results reveal that the real effective exchange rate has a more substantial effect. While this effect becomes more evident when the TL depreciates, it is seen that the USD / TL exchange rate is more determinant when the TL is stable. We find that both lagged and expected effects on inflation have a similar magnitude effect. This situation emphasizes the inertia and the importance of expectations in inflation. When the exchange rate increases, the effect of future expectations increases even more. The expected theoretical effect of the domestic output gap on inflation is statistically insignificant. According to the estimated model results, the effect of structural problems on inflation is relatively high and hampers price stability.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
