An Epidemiological Model to Estimate the Prevalence of Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma in the United States.

Abstract

Prevalence is reflective of disease incidence and survival, and defined as the number of patients living with active disease. In diseases such as diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) with treatments with curative potential, a proportion of patients are cured, leading to a need for accurate, contemporary estimates of DLBCL prevalence to gauge the impact of the rapidly emerging treatment landscape. Data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) from 2000-2018 were utilized to develop an epidemiological model of incidence, survival, and cure, to estimate the current prevalent DLBCL population requiring active management in the United States (US). A variety of estimates were explored regarding cure rate and timing, based on a companion analysis of MarketScan data for treatment patterns and survival in incident DLBCL patients, and conditional survival analysis of SEER data. Across scenarios, with estimated cure ranging from 52.8% and 68.9%, and timing of cure ranging from 1 and 20 years post diagnosis, the estimated prevalence ranged from 63,883 to 142,889. With an assumption of no cure, estimated prevalence was 179,475. Prevalence estimates of DLBCL varied almost 3-fold, depending on specific cure adjustments made. Further understanding of DLBCL prevalence, for newly diagnosed and relapsed and/or refractory disease, is important to characterize the impact of emerging treatment options and related health care burden.