An Epicyclical Model for Western Civilization

Abstract

antiquity, since the step-by-step reconstruction of the two will be similar. The epicyclical theory of antiquity differed from most past cyclical theories in that it did not grandly seek cyclical phenomena to be found in all civilizations and all times-rather it sought, by empirical, inductive reasoning, to solve the question of how a single civilization, the Greco-Roman, arose and then declined. It postulated that we could construct a theoretical conceptual model of cycles within cycles which would account for the known facts of classical history, just as astronomers construct conceptual models of galaxies, chemists construct models of molecules, or physicists models of atoms. All historians agree that there were four successive eras in Greco-Roman history-the Archaic, Athenian, Hellenistic, and Roman eras. These were political eras, relative to each other as formative, developed, florescent, and degenerate stages of an over-all development. At the same time, ancient society developed through two successive social epochs-city-state society covering the Archaic and Athenian eras, and subsequently super-state society covering the Hellenistic and Roman eras. And at the same time there was an over-all economic cycle of expansion, followed by contraction and decay, during which industrial production slowly grew out of agrarian production to predominance over it in key cities during the city-state epoch, whereas the reverse slowly occurred during the super-state epoch, until agriculture finally reincorporated industry in the manorial society of the later Roman empire. Thus, we were able to construct a model of an over-all economic cycle, on which were superimposed two intermediate social cycles, and upon these again 1014