An environmental analysis of public UAP sightings and sky view potential

Abstract

Sightings of unidentified flying objects (UFOs) or unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) have been reported throughout history. Given the potential security and safety risks they pose, as well as scientific curiosity, there is increasing interest in understanding what these sighting reports represent. We approach this problem as an important one of the human experience and that can be examined through a geographical lens: what local factors may increase or decrease the number of sighting reports? Using a Bayesian regression method, we test hypotheses based on variables representing sky view potential (light pollution, tree canopy, and cloud cover) and the potential for objects to be present in the sky (aircraft and military installations). The dependent variable includes over 98,000 publicly reported UAP sightings in the conterminous United States during the 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The model results find credible correlations between variables that suggest people see more “phenomena” when they have more opportunity to. This analysis is one of few investigations of UAP sighting reports at a national scale providing context to help examine individual reports. Given that these objects are labeled unidentifiable in the personal sense, there are many natural and/or human based explanations worth exploring.