An empirical determination of the heating of the Earth by the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect

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Numerous theoretical calculations1,2 have been made of the effect of an increased carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere on the surface temperature of the Earth. Estimates of the increase in the surface temperature of the Earth caused by a doubling of the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere generally range from ∼0.7 to 2.9 °C. For a 10% increase in carbon dioxide, the corresponding temperature increases range from 0.096 to 0.40 °C. All these results are calculated from theoretical models which range in complexity from one-dimensional planetary radiation budget studies to three-dimensional general circulation models. Here a new approach to this problem is described which allows an empirical determination of the heating of the surface of the Earth by the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect to be calculated. This technique indicates that the heating of the Earth over the period 1880–1970 was 0.40 °C or less.

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The purported consensus that human greenhouse gas emissions have causally dominated the recent climate warming depends decisively upon three lines of evidence: climate model projections, reconstructed paleo-temperatures, and the instrumental surface air temperature record. However, CMIP5 climate model simulations of global cloud fraction reveal theory-bias error. Propagation of this cloud forcing error uncovers a r.s.s.e. uncertainty 1σ ≈ ±15 C in centennially projected air temperature. Causal attribution of warming is therefore impossible. Climate models also fail to reproduce targeted climate observables. For their part, consensus paleo-temperature reconstructions deploy an improper ‘correlation = causation’ logic, suborn physical theory, and represent a descent into pseudo-science. Finally, the published global averaged surface air temperature record completely neglects systematic instrumental error. The average annual systematic measurement uncertainty, 1σ = ±0.5 C, completely vitiates centennial climate warming at the 95% confidence interval. The entire consensus position fails critical examination and evidences pervasive analytical negligence.

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Climate science as we know it today did not exist in the 1960s and 1970s. The integrated enterprise embodied in the Nobel Prizewinning work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change existed then as separate threads of research pursued by isolated groups of scientists. Atmospheric chemists and modelers grappled with the measurement of changes in carbon dioxide and atmospheric gases, and the changes in climate that might result. Meanwhile, geologists and paleoclimate researchers tried to understand when Earth slipped into and out of ice ages, and why. An enduring popular myth suggests that in the 1970s the climate science community was predicting “global cooling” and an “imminent” ice age, an observation frequently used by those who would undermine what climate scientists say today about the prospect of global warming. A review of the literature suggests that, on the contrary, greenhouse warming even then dominated scientists' thinking as being one of the most important forces shaping Earth's climate...

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Search IconCan diabetes be passed down from one generation to the next?
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