Abstract
Cote d’Ivoire has been at the helm of cocoa production for more than 3 decades. Despite being fraught by occasional challenges, she is still poised to steer the global cocoa production rudder. To keep the mantle of, we investigate and analyse some determinants that influence cocoa shortage in Cote d’Ivoire. Employing an ARDL using time series data for a 33-year period, we identify a long-run relationship between cocoa output and labour, land as well as fertilizer implements. We found a short-run relation among the same variables using an ECM. Additionally, political stability and carbon dioxide emissions had no statistically significant effect, indicating that Ivorian cocoa production is not impacted by these non-economic factors. Intuitively, policy makers can identify the causes of the shortages in the long and short terms and calibrate targeted decisions that will benefit the cocoa sector in particular and Ivorian agricultural activity in general.
Highlights
1 Introduction This article is based on a report published by global chocolate manufacturer Barry Callebaut (BC) which estimates a shortage of cocoa by 2022
Where (1) is a linear function of Y annual cocoa production depending on A denoted as technology used in the process of producing annual production, K is the capital invested in order to produce more goods and L stands for labour used and t refers to time
Examples of such government policy in the cocoa sector could be the law on land use by foreign or native farmers
Summary
This article is based on a report published by global chocolate manufacturer Barry Callebaut (BC) which estimates a shortage of cocoa by 2022. In its capacity as largest chocolate manufacturer in the world, BC1 has been producing chocolate and assorted confectionery products for more than 150 years. Their range of activities span from industrial food manufacturing, chocolatiers, and retail to a diverse clientele from across the globe. The article titled Global Cocoa Deficit Triples as Second Year of Shortages Loom said the demand for cocoa butter which is used to make chocolate was increasing while the harvesting of cocoa beans declined.. The article titled Global Cocoa Deficit Triples as Second Year of Shortages Loom said the demand for cocoa butter which is used to make chocolate was increasing while the harvesting of cocoa beans declined. In the same year, citing another report from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), the article noted that “demand outstripped production by 160,000 metric tons”.5
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