Abstract
We developed decision-analytic models to determine the cost effectiveness of incorporating human papillomavirus (HPV) testing into the management of atypical and abnormal Pap smear results in Germany. The models compare three management strategies: (1) repeat Pap smear, (2) triage with HPV DNA testing, or (3) immediate treatment. The primary outcome measure is incremental cost per case of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2+ detected and treated. The models take the perspective of the German health system. For patients with initial PapIIw, III, and IIId results, incremental cost effectiveness ratios for HPV triage versus repeat Pap smears are 2,232 euro, 815 euro, and 487 euro per additional case of CIN2+ detected and treated. In addition, the number of cases of CIN2+ detected and treated in a hypothetical population of 1,000 women increases from 17 to 35, 61 to 130, and 157 to 332 for each population, respectively. For patients with initial PapIII and IIId results, immediate treatment of 1,000 patients detects only four and 11 additional cases of CIN2+ versus HPV triage at incremental cost effectiveness ratios of 39,684 euro and 10,716 euro per case, respectively. For each of the populations evaluated, HPV triage is the most cost-effective management strategy versus either repeat Pap smear or immediate treatment.
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