Abstract
With reference to the Italian context, the present research intends to analyze the functional relationships between the unit cost of restructuring and the selling prices in the residential segment. The analysis has been contextualized to the three clusters (Northern Italy, Central Italy, Southern Italy and Islands) in which the Italian territory is commonly divided. The case study concerns 965 residential units sold in the first half of 2019 and located in the 103 provincial capitals. The implemented econometric technique is a data-driven method that employs a genetic algorithm and allows the identification of the most influencing factors among the explanatory variables considered. For each cluster, a model has been selected in order to study the influence of unit cost of restructuring on housing prices.
Highlights
With reference to the Italian territory, the building and infrastructural stock is characterized by a growing obsolescence condition: nearly 60% of 12.2 million of residential properties included in the 15th ISTAT population and housing census [4] were built before 1980 and 42.5% are over 50 years old
The terms included in the Eq(1) are described below: a0 is the bias, i.e. the constant term, n is the number of additive terms of the polynomial expression, ai are the numerical coefficients to be valued, Xj are candidate explanatory variables selected by the algorithm during the elaboration, (i, l) - with l = (1, ..., 2j) - is the exponent of the l-th input within the i-th term in Eq (1), f is a function selected in the preliminary phase of Evolutionary Polynomial Regression (EPR) elaboration
The present research has aimed at analyzing the functional correlations between the total selling prices and the unit cost of restructuring in the three clusters of Northern Italy, Central Italy, Southern Italy and Islands
Summary
In the international and European context, in the last years a relevant variation in the policies aimed at the renovation of the existing property assets and at its functional reuse through different interventions according to the buildings maintenance conditions has occurred [1, 2, 3] In this sense, on the basis of the deterioration level, refurbishment projects with partial or total demolition, restoration and/or conservative rehabilitation initiatives, ordinary or extraordinary maintenance operations are planned and implemented. With reference to the existing property assets, the issue of the costs constitutes a relevant question, in particular related to the modalities for the building transformation interventions costs estimation In this sense, several studies have been developed with the goal to assess the amounts necessary for the project implementation in monetary terms, both by considering realization ex-novo interventions [16, 17, 18] that of reconstruction or redevelopment ones. A detailed analysis of the existing reference literature has been included in Morano et al [19] intended to explore the relationships between the construction and refurbishment costs and the properties prices and in which the convenience of refurbishment investments related to housings in the Italian context has been examined
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