An assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the electric grid in the UK

Abstract

To achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the world economy needs to be significantly decarbonized. Among all sectors, the decarbonization of heat is likely to incorporate a significant electronification using electric heat pumps, placing additional strain on electric grid infrastructure in countries like the UK. In this paper, we present an assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the grid in the UK in 2050 when the net zero is reached. A high-resolution heat demand forecasting model is developed to estimate hourly heat demand at the national level and it is validated using published historical data. The validated model is then used to predict the hourly heat demand of the UK in 2050. The impact of heat electrification is then analysed based on several different scenarios. The results show that heat decarbonization through electrification will have a significant impact on the grid. In the case of extreme global warming, both hourly peak demand and annual total heat demand will drop by about 45% in 2050, compared with published data in 2010. In the case of 100% electrification with no global warming, the total annual electricity demand for heating is 109.4 TWh. The hourly peak demand of electricity will increase from 96.6 GW to 146.7 GW, which requires an increase of electricity generation capacity by around 50%. It is however economically infeasible and unviable to build such a huge new generation capacity that would only be used in winter when the peak heat demand peaks but will be switched off during summer. Hence, mitigation measures such as heat storage will play a vital role in balancing power generation and consumption, as well as reducing the required new generation capacity.