An analytical framework to assess green transition jobs in South Africa

Market fundamentalism (or neoliberalism) has proven to be a crisisprone economic model. Within this model, a number of in-built structural imbalances and their interactions have contributed to a downward spiral in economic performance. The end point of this evolution is a multi-crisis in which geopolitics has become an integral macroeconomic variable. Because geopolitics does not function as an antidote but rather as a remedy with predominantly counterproductive effects, the global economy has persistently lost recovery momentum and slipped into deeper crises, while human society simultaneously undergoes geopolitical regression. In such a context, preserving strategic autonomy becomes a particularly demanding task for any national economy. For Serbia, as a small, open, middle-income, landlocked economy on a convergence path toward the EU, this challenge is especially pronounced. These days, strategic autonomy entails a clear vision for accelerating the green transition through a new industrialization based on climate-neutral technologies, primarily in the energy sector and land-use industries. In this paper, we explore key insights into the efforts required to energize the green transition as a roadmap for reversing, or at the very least decelerating, the adverse dynamics of the current economic conjuncture. Serbia serves as the focal point of this analysis, with particular emphasis on the green energy transition as a critical pillar of this complex endeavor. The authors hope that the proposed platform for the green energy transition will be recognized as both feasible and implementable. The zero step in Serbia’s green energy transition is the build-up of a nature-centric mindset capable of fostering a so-called “ecological civilization” in the near future. To achieve this, two coordination mechanisms must be combined: the invisible hand of the market and the visible hand of the state. The paper also addresses two additional issues. First, it examines the specific characteristics of investments in biomass-based energy technologies. Second, it analyzes the policy mix required to stimulate investment in related technologies for renewable energy and land-use industries, carbon capture and utilization, grid optimization, lithium production, and other sectors integral to the green transition (e.g., the EV value chain). Building on the preceding line of reasoning, the paper is organized into five main sections, in addition to the Introduction and Conclusion. Part 1 examines the root causes and key deficiencies of market fundamentalism. Part 2 discusses the necessity of the green transition as a pathway toward ecological civilization. Part 3 elaborates a “to-be” scenario for Serbia, based on a circular growth model and a heterodox economic policy platform. Part 4 assesses Serbia’s economic preparedness for the green energy transition. Finally, Part 5, the paper’s pivotal section, presents a portfolio of green energy projects, providing detailed explanations of biomass-based energy production, which is proposed as the flagship project within Serbia’s broader green energy transition agenda.

It has been widely recognized that accelerating green residential energy transition from traditional solid fuels (biomass and coal) to clean and high-efficient energy sources is critical for rural sustainable development. However, little attention has been paid to estimate panel data discrete choice models to analyze the dynamic behavior information of individual households in the process of energy transition. Hence, this paper investigates green residential energy transition using a panel dataset from 3308 rural households in eight provinces of China in 2015 and 2018. The results show that although traditional solid biomass still plays a dominating role in rural residential energy choice, fuel switching from solid fuels to modern clean energy alternatives is taking place. Off-farm employment plays an important role in the transition towards more sustainable energy sources, as households with off-farm employed heads and higher off-farm income level are highly likely to choose superior energy alternatives other than traditional biomass. Besides, the educational level of the household head and household location are also important influencing factors of household residential energy choices. Based on these findings, this paper suggests that job creation in non-farm sectors should be given a priority in future policy design to promote rural green energy transition in residential sector. North-south differences should be taken into account, whereas more policy options for optimizing biomass energy use should be explored.

How can the EU and NATO face the future hybrid threats coming from Russia and other adversaries like China in the energy sector during the green transition? Energy security is among the most vulnerable sectors of national security, with significant potential to destabilize societies. Both the green energy and technological transitions will increase vulnerabilities of new infrastructures, supply chain and technologies in the decades to come. The West therefore will need a grand strategy, to increase resilience and capabilities investing in innovation for new technologies (so called “Emerging Disruptive Technologies”/EDTs), defending the supply and value chain of critical materials and resources, and protect the new infrastructures. A closer and more efficient cooperation between the EU and NATO in these sectors becomes fundamental, as dual use technology could help in both the technological and energy transitions and hinder new non-kinetic warfare in these areas.

What drives the green and low-carbon energy transition in China?: An empirical analysis based on a novel framework

Background: The rapid shift toward renewable energy and net-zero climate policies has raised concerns about greenflation—temporary upward pressure on consumer prices arising from the green energy transition itself. While the topic has attracted increasing attention from policymakers and central banks, a systematic synthesis of recent empirical evidence remains limited. Aim: This systematic review evaluates the existence, direction, and persistence of short-run inflationary effects associated with key elements of the green transition, including carbon pricing policies, energy-market adjustments, and large-scale green investment programmes. Methods: Following PRISMA-guided reporting principles, we searched Scopus, Web of Science, EconLit, RePEc/IDEAS, SSRN, Google Scholar, and major central-bank and international-organisation repositories for studies published between 2015 and 2025. Eligible studies provided empirical or model-based estimates of the impact of real-world green-transition policies or shocks on headline or core consumer price inflation within the first five years. After screening 1,322 records, eight recent high-quality empirical studies were included and assessed using a modified Newcastle–Ottawa framework. Findings were synthesised using structured narrative and comparative quantitative approaches. Results: Across different regions, methods, and policy settings, the included studies consistently report positive but temporary inflationary effects associated with the green energy transition in the short run. Carbon pricing mechanisms and energy-related transition shocks emerge as the most prominent contributors, while green investment-driven demand effects are generally smaller. The magnitude of reported effects varies across studies and contexts but is commonly described as modest and transitory, with inflationary pressures fading as energy systems adjust and supply constraints ease. Conclusion: The available empirical evidence suggests that greenflation exists but is limited in scale and duration. Short-run inflationary pressures linked to the green transition are unlikely to pose a major obstacle to price stability if appropriately managed. Well-designed climate policies, particularly those combining carbon pricing with revenue recycling and supply-side measures can further mitigate short-term price impacts while preserving long-term climate objectives.

Universities play a strategic role towards a sustainable future, as they address the complex scientific research on green transition and enable students from diverse backgrounds to acquire different skills, integrate multiple perspectives, and handle the sustainability of the ongoing and future renewable energy sector. In this paper, we describe a collaborative project between multiple HEIs (European and African) and local institutions, which promotes an interdisciplinary approach to address climate change and green energy transitions in the curricula of universities, used in the context of the ERASMUS+ program (DALILA-Development of new Academic curricuLa on sustaInabLe energies and green economy in Africa). The project recognizes and values different kinds of knowledge in renewable energy and green economy to address the energy transition in higher education in African countries as a prerequisite for climate change mitigation and sustainable development.

Greening the economy entails jobs contracting in “high-polluting” economic activities and expanding in environment-friendly activities. Minimizing the corresponding transition costs is crucial to accelerate decarbonisation and reduce displacement costs for affected workers. Using individual-level labour force data for a large sample of European countries, this paper finds that the shares of green and high-polluting jobs remained approximately stable between 2009 and 2019, hinting at a slow or yet-to-come green transition in labour markets. Green and high-polluting jobs are unequally distributed across socioeconomic groups: women are under-represented in both green and high-polluting jobs, while green jobs are associated with higher educational attainment, and high-polluting jobs with lower educational attainment. Equally important from a policy perspective, the results show that high-polluting jobs are concentrated in rural areas. These results are confirmed by analyzing labour market transitions: for instance, while women are more likely to transition from study to job, they are significantly less likely to get a green job. Overall, the results suggest that well designed and targeted policies are needed to support efficient and inclusive labour market transitions in the greening economy: to minimize scarring effects for displaced workers, help individuals’ upskilling and reskilling, and support the matching between workers and jobs in higher demand.

On our way of living and doing business digital technologies have a profound impact. The research and innovation strategy is crucial to a more productive, sustainable and green economy. Digital solutions that put people first will open up new opportunities for businesses, encourage the development of trustworthy technology, foster an open and democratic society, enable a vibrant and sustainable economy, help fight climate change and achieve the green transition. The aim of this paper is to research the literature about digital and green transition, hers financial and social impacts on Croatian economy across of the approved projects (for the period 2019 – 2023) to the Croatian micro, small and medium entrepreneurs. Based on these results, the author(s) will contribute to the new knowledge about the green and digital transition and offer recommendations for a sustainable green and digital transition in Croatian and potential finance benefits on Croatian economy. For the purposes of this work, the author(s) used secondary data, analyzing them using the following methods: descriptive research methods, deductive research methods, analysis methods and compilation methods. Obtained results are visible in the number of approved projects proposal and the total value of the projects. The impacts of project proposals on strengthening the sustainability and competitiveness of project holders and their partners is manifested through the number of newly introduced technological solutions related to green and/or digital goals in the year m+2, the projection of the newly employed persons as a result of the implementation of project activities in the year m+2, projected increase in sales revenue in year m+2, predicted increase in exports revenues in the year m+2. On the basis of research of literature and previously conducted secondary data research, the author(s) provide recommendations for the further sustainability of the digital and green transition in micro, small and medium-sized enterprises in Croatia.

The accelerating impacts of climate change, the need to adapt to changing economic and political realities, and the recent energy crisis have made the green transition something that most Nordic citizens acknowledge. However, especially rural areas and their communities are at risk of being reduced to passive instruments of national green transition measures featuring heavy land-use. These conditions make it very difficult to create a sense of justness in green transitions, leading to growing sense of alienation and resentment and putting the national climate goals in danger. From this starting point, the case studies of the research project “Just Green Transition on Rural Areas: Local Benefits from Value Creation” set out to examine what kind of benefits would generate value from green transition measures in the direct impact zone of new energy projects. The case studies took place in three Nordic countries and six locations: in Northern Ostrobothnia and Northern Central Finland of Finland, involving wind power and land use planning; in Nord-Fron and Nord-Odal in Norway, involving both wind power and strategic sustainability work; and in Skive and Bornholm of Denmark, involving a hybrid mix of renewable energy sources in the context of industrial park development. The results highlight the importance of local involvement and trust in green energy transitions in Nordic rural areas. Neglecting local needs can cause resistance to renewable projects. Early engagement, transparent communication, and ensuring local benefits are vital. While monetary benefits attract attention, relying solely on them can create community divisions. A blend of community engagement, environmental benefits, and local ownership of projects fosters trust and a deeper sense of justice in these transitions.

The global economy is in an age of astonishing change driven by a polycrisis, full of conflicting signals and contradictions. The post-COVID recovery in Serbia in the period 2022-2024 was characterized by slow-tomoderate growth. However, the country's future growth faces significant challenges from deeply rooted external and internal disruptors. One of them certainly is the 30% energy output gap. The structure of energy output is the related challenge. Defining a solution for energy security, in terms of the volume and structure of energy production, as a key limitation to sustainable growth, has been influenced by the green energy transition. Persistent issues, such as a widening energy output gap, a high carbon footprint, the dominance of energy-intensive and hard-toabate industries in economic structure (mining, steel, copper, cement, construction, transportation, ICT, etc.), as well as the low efficiency of end-use sectors, pose serious macroeconomic risks. The policy mix implemented in 2024 successfully curbed inflation, bringing it within the target tolerance band of 3% ± 1.5%, and reduced simultaneously the share of the fiscal deficit and public debt relative to GDP. Consequently, Standard & Poor's has classified Serbia as an economy with an investmentgrade credit rating (BBB-). In parallel, the dangerous nexus of key disruptors continues to fuel inflationary pressures and challenge the country's macroeconomic fundamentals. To make matters worse, (geo) political malaise erupted in Q4 2024. The escalating costs of concerted mediation efforts to counteract these negative consequences have further squeezed the fiscal space available for investment. In this deteriorating context, the current energy output gap could soar to an uncontrollable level, exacerbating the energy security issue. In the meantime, a new external asymmetric shock has emerged, the US sanctions to NIS (Naftna industrija Srbije), a Russian-Serbian joint venture and a leader from the energy sector. The sanctions on NIS could exacerbate an already severe energy output crunch. An additional factor of concern is the structure of Serbia's energy production, which is heavily reliant on lignite, accounting for 68% of electricity generation. There is a growing urgency to address this issue, not only to ensure energy security in Serbia but also to align with global climate change mitigation goals. To achieve and sustain energy security in Serbia, three critical goals provide the solution: energy output expansion, supply diversification, and the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The Green Energy Transition Action Plan serves as the framework for achieving these goals. In the energy sector, the EU tends to be more explicit, elevated, and sophisticated in its requirements regarding compatibility with candidate countries. By meeting a net-zero future, Serbia will increase its chances of joining the EU. We want Serbia to be integrated into the EU as sustainably and inclusively as possible. A responsible roadmap should be not only feasible and effective but also based on local renewable energy sources, fiscal space, and the credit potential of relevant stakeholders, making it affordable for the capital blending needed for green finance. Our view is that biomass will be a key renewable energy source in the medium term. Other elements of the plan include the regulatory framework for the carbon marks, the issuance of thematic securities (green bonds, green credits, etc.), and green fiscal subsidies, along with measures to prevent non-complying behavior. Following the previous line of reasoning, the paper is organized around four fundamental issues. Part 1 is dedicated to explaining the polycrisis as the context that demands a polytransition, colloquially referred to as the green transition. In Part 2, we focus on a strategic audit of Serbia's macroeconomic fundamentals as a zero step in defining feasible solutions. Part 3 discusses two growth scenarios: the "as-is" scenario and the "to-be" scenario. Part 4, the most important section, provides the key explanatory details regarding the deployment of biomass technology as the center of Serbia's green energy transition in the medium term, along with aggregate financial projections. The paper concludes with a Nota Bene.

Purpose: this article is to conceptualize the reasons of European green energy transition sustainability on the basis of its historic dynamics of its political and economic drivers and its possible developments taking into account adjustments of this process caused by current energy market situation.Methods: system analysis in the context of economics and politics, case-study, statistical method, information analysis and synthesis, data visualization method are applied.Results: the process of formation of modern economic and political drivers of green energy transition from the moment of the origin of this process to the present time has been investigated. The scale of the restructuring of European energy in the first quarter of the 21st century is shown based on the analysis of the dynamics of energy production by different types of generation. The substantiation of the sustainability of the process of greening energy in European countries is formulated, consisting in a combination of political and economic factors. The possible options for the development of the European green transition process in the medium term are evaluated, taking into account the adjustments of market conditions that are caused by the current unstable state of the energy markets.Conclusions and Relevance: green energy transition is caused from a political point of view, firstly, by the popularity of the concept among voters, and secondly, by the fact that it is the only option to ensure energy independence for Europe. From an economic point of view, the green transition acts as a tool for the development of industry, support for innovation and a factor in reducing negative externalities associated with the negative consequences of the use of hydrocarbon energy. The combination of these factors ensures the sustainability of the greening of energy, therefore, the most likely option for its medium-term development will be the resumption of the process after finding temporary solutions for energy supply.

The energy transition of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in East Asia has become a crucial aspect of the region’s energy sustainability in recent years. This study examines the influence of the common prosperity index, FDI, GDP size, GINI index and urban population on SMEs’ energy transition in five East Asian countries — China, South Korea, Japan, Mongolia and Taiwan — using data from 1990 to 2021 and the ARDL estimation approach. The results indicate that a 1% increase in the common prosperity index leads to a 0.22–0.36% reduction in SMEs’ energy consumption, highlighting the role of socioeconomic development in improving energy efficiency. FDI significantly contributes to SMEs’ energy transition, with a 1% rise resulting in a 0.46% increase in the short term and 0.67% in the long term. Likewise, GDP growth of 1% enhances energy transition by 0.36% in the short term and 0.46% in the long term. However, a 1% increase in the urban population raises SMEs’ energy consumption by 0.09% in the short term and 0.14% in the long term. Sensitivity analysis reveals that SMEs’ energy transition is most influenced by FDI, whereas income inequality has a negligible effect. Based on these findings, policy recommendations include fostering socioeconomic development, attracting FDI, supporting economic growth, managing urbanization and addressing income inequality to facilitate SMEs’ energy transition.

The purpose of the article is to determine the prerequisites for a theoretical rethinking of the problem of price instability and inflation processes as such in the context of a managed green and circular transition as a consequence of the institutional legitimation of climate neutrality on the path to achieving sustainable development. The circular economy, as an important component of the ambitious concept of sustainable development, involves a change in the approach to natural resources, which entails the abandonment of traditional business models and the search for new investment solutions that cannot be fully achieved by attracting private capital. This places great responsibility on governments, which, on the one hand, set ambitious goals (green transition, energy transition, circular transition, sustainable development), and, on the other hand, are not able to respond in a timely manner to the consequences of climate change and to respond to the impacts created by these two factors (institutional pressure and market failures) negative spillover effects. Control of hydrocarbon emissions should be offset by the use of a wide range of green incentives (green quantitative easing policy, green guarantee policy, green subsidy policy) and by providing access to long-term loans as part of responsible government planning. Fiscal, monetary, exchange rate and industrial policies must ensure the sustainability of the green transition. Only in this case can the stability and efficiency of the financial system be guaranteed, as well as the technical re-equipment of the production sector, focused on new technologies, while maintaining its productivity indicators. It has been established that green inflation can occur: as a reaction to irresponsible management (where economic agents actively created such a reality in which environmental degradation and climate problems lead to food, raw material, energy and other crises, which reduces supply, and therefore provokes an increase in prices ); as a reaction to an attempt to implement large-scale projects aimed at decarbonization within a limited time frame (where economic agents and consumers become "victims" of monetary and fiscal policies of governments); as a reaction to the tightening of business standards, for which the end consumer will have to pay (the price of minerals needed for green technologies - from wind turbines and solar panels to electric cars - will require a "green premium" (or "greenium") as due to relatively higher demand on them with limited supply, as well as due to the fact that the extraction of minerals is usually associated with higher environmental costs, which will be "punished" by taxes).

The Green Transition is the European growth strategy—supported by the European Green Deal (EGD, 2019)—that aims to overcome climate change and environmental degradation, foster climate neutrality by 2050, boost the economy through green technology, create sustainable industry and transport, and cut pollution. EU Member States are requested to implement actions that support the Green Transition, contributing to achieving the goals of the European Green Deal. At the same time, the Just Transition Mechanism (JTM) is the EU’s instrument to guarantee that the shift to a climate-neutral economy proceeds fairly and leaves no one behind. Turning climate and environmental challenges into opportunities implies that the transition must be just and inclusive for all. Even though within the EU policy framework, Green Transition commonly comes together with the justice dimension, the spatial interdependence between these concepts requires more clarification. Therefore, this contribution questions the EU's Just Transition Strategy and addresses its important limitations: Overemphasising the distributive dimension of justice while undermining the procedural one, paying inadequate attention to the spatial dimension of justice, and considering justice as a secondary element of Green Transition. By analysing these constraints, the chapter provides a critical standpoint of the EU's Just Transition Strategy, highlighting significant gaps in its approach to justice. In addition, practical recommendations for policymakers are made to integrate spatial justice into the Green Transition. Some of these recommendations include assessing how environmental policies related to the Green Transition impact different geographies on a local scale; ensuring equitable geographical access to new infrastructures, such as urban green spaces, renewable energy sources, and green jobs across neighbourhood; promoting green job creation in disadvantaged areas; providing fair access to training programmes; empowering the least advantaged groups in decision-making; and, finally, promoting bottom-up decision-making processes that are inclusive, transparent, and focused on addressing structural inequities, rather than solely on immediate economic and environmental impacts.

Explores the politics of green energy policies and considers the prospect of a long-term transition toward an economy that has much lower levels of human impact on the environment. Discusses energy, manufacturing, and the changing global economy; green jobs and the green energy transition; green industrial policy and the 111th Congress; state governments and the greening of import substitution; the greening of regional industrial clusters; localist alternatives to the mainstream tradition; green transition coalitions and geographical unevenness; and after 2010—continued unevenness in the green transition. Hess is Professor of Sociology, Associate Director of the Institute for Energy and Environment, and Director of the Program on Environmental and Sustainability Studies at Vanderbilt University.