An Analysis of ROI of Taiwan’s Stock Market: A Case Study in Light of the Chinese Tradition of Store in Winter

Abstract

There is a Chinese saying that goes “plough in spring, hoe in summer, harvest in autumn, and store in winter”, which reflects the traditional farming practice of Taiwanese in response to the change of seasons and the ancient annual work-rest pattern of Chinese farmers. This lifestyle of Chinese, however, might be different from that of foreigners. In light of this, this study is carried out based on “Are there any regular variations in the Taiwan stock market: a case study of Taiwan stock exchange capitalization weighted stock Index (TAIEX) ”, a study by Yang and Yang (2015), in order to determine whether this Chinese idea has rendered Taiwan’s stock market any underlying characteristic which is different from other countries’ stock markets in terms of investment activities. The results do reveal a regular variation pattern of Taiwan’s stock market. In the study, the seasonal change of traditional Chinese farming work-rest schedule is investigated in conjunction with the seasonal variation of Taiwan’s stock market. The results reveal that the ROI of Taiwan’s stock market tends to be most significant in winter, i.e. there is a Winter Effect. The study also tries to determine whether this effect fits the January Effect in foreign countries. The results suggest the existence of a December Effect in ROI of Taiwan’s stock market.