An Acidity‐Based Model Linking the Dryness Index to Grapevine Acidity Under Climate Change

Climate is a strong modulator of berry composition. Accordingly, the projected change in climate is expected to impact on the composition of berries and of the resultant wines. However, the direction and extent of climate change impact on fruit composition of winegrape cultivars are not fully known. This study utilised a climate gradient along a 700 km transect, covering all wine regions of Western Australia, to explore and empirically describe influences of climate on anthocyanins, pH and titratable acidity (TA) levels in two or three cultivars of Vitis vinifera (Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay and Shiraz). The results showed that, at a common maturity of 22° Brix total soluble solids, berries from the warmer regions had low levels of anthocyanins and TA as well as high pH compared to berries from the cooler regions. Most of these regional variations in berry composition reflected the prevailing climatic conditions of the regions. Thus, depending on cultivar, 82–87 % of TA, 83 % of anthocyanins and about half of the pH variations across the gradient were explained by climate-variable-based empirical models. Some of the variables that were relevant in describing the variations in berry attributes included: diurnal ranges and ripening period temperature (TA), vapour pressure deficit in October and growing degree days (pH), and ripening period temperatures (anthocyanins). Further, the rates of change in these berry attributes in response to climate variables were cultivar dependent. Based on the observed patterns along the climate gradient, it is concluded that: (1) in a warming climate, all other things being equal, berry anthocyanins and TA levels will decline whereas pH levels will rise; and (2) despite variations in non-climatic factors (e.g. soil type and management) along the sampling transect, variations in TA and anthocyanins were satisfactorily described using climate-variable-based empirical models, indicating the overriding impact of climate on berry composition. The models presented here are useful tools for assessing likely changes in berry TA and anthocyanins in response to changing climate for the wine regions and cultivars covered in this study.

To increase the level of management efficiency in the agricultural sector of the economy, it is necessary to ensure the implementation of the sustainable environmental management principles, taking into account the spatial patterns of climate change and bioclimatic potential of the territory. The assessment of natural moisture availability of the natural areas of the Turkestan region of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 1941-2020 (by providing a comparative analysis of indicators for 1941-1960 and 2001-2020) was conducted based on the use of the natural moisture coefficient and hydrothermal index or "dryness index" predicated on energy resources (total of biologically active air temperatures above 10°С, photosynthetically active radiation, evaporating capacity and water consumption of agricultural land). The conducted survey has used the proven domestic, international and proprietary methods according to estimates of natural water availability in the natural areas. The results of a comparative analysis of climatic indices changes in the natural areas of the Turkestan region (by sixteen weather bureau stations) for 1941 to 2020 have shown that there is an increase in average annual air temperatures in all natural areas, and the annual precipitation tends downward which affects the formation of energy resources and natural water supply. The identified features of changes in the natural moisture coefficient and hydrothermal index or "dryness index" in natural area of Turkestan region, make it possible to adjust the spread of its boundaries and consider these changes in the territorial organization of agricultural nature management.

The present paper evaluates the composite risk of anthropogenic and climate change on the future water status in Jordan during the period 2030–2050. The projected water status in the country is evaluated based on the more likely population growth and climate change scenarios. The most likely figure for the population of Jordan, excluding refugees from neighboring countries, in 2040 would be ∼15 million people. Given this likely projection, though conservative, annual water needs for the domestic sector alone are expected to be between 700 and 800 million m3, with the current level of water consumption. A rise in near surface air temperature by 2 °C and a drop in total precipitation by 15%, as projected by most Global Circulation Models, would diminish renewable water resources in the mountainous region by ∼ 25–40%, being more severe as aridity increases.1. IntroductionThere is almost a consensus among earth scientists that the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is lea...

Cost-effective heat mitigation strategies are imperative for maintaining milk production and dairy farm profitability in the U.S. with projected climate change. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of four heat abatement strategies, including Minimal (open barn or shading), Moderate (forced ventilation), High (fans and misting), and Intense (air conditioning). Heat stress and subsequent impacts on milk production per cow were predicted across nine climatic regions in the U.S. for early (2015 to 2034), mid (2045 to 2064) and late (2081 to 2100) 21st century, using downscaled climate projections. Heat abatements were used to adjust predicted milk production losses and illustrate the potential to reduce milk production losses due to heat stress. Economic analysis included a cost-benefit ratio calculation associated with the implementation of each heat abatement. Results showed that milk production losses were expected to accelerate across the U.S. at a mean rate of 174±7 kg/cow/decade, with the fastest rate in the Southeast region. Relative to Minimal heat abatement, Moderate, High, and Intense heat abatements increased annual milk production per cow by 3%, 4%, and 6% during early-21st century, 3%, 6%, and 11% during mid-21st century, and 3%, 8%, and 21% during late-21st century, respectively. The cost effectiveness of different heat abatement strategies generally increased with subsequently stronger heat abatements. In mid- and late-21st century, mean annual net values of High and Intense heat stress abatement implementation approached -$30 to $190 /cow and -$20 to $590 /cow, respectively, with the largest net annual benefit in late-21st century under Intense abatement. Findings from the study demonstrate the value of using downscaled climate projections to shed light on local and regional strategies to abate heat stress on cattle and mitigate potential milk production losses due to climate change.

More than a century of observations has established that climate influences grape berry composition. Accordingly, the projected global climate change is expected to impact on grape berry composition although the magnitude and direction of impact at regional and subregional scales are not fully known. The aim of this study was to assess potential impacts of climate change on levels of berry anthocyanin and titratable acidity (TA) of the major grapevine varieties grown across all of the Western Australian (WA) wine regions. Grape berry anthocyanin and TA responses across all WA wine regions were projected for 2030, 2050 and 2070 by utilising empirical models that link these berry attributes and climate data downscaled (to ∼5 km resolution) from the csiro_mk3_5 and miroc3_2_medres global climate model outputs under IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario. Due to the dependence of berry composition on maturity, climate impacts on anthocyanin and TA levels were assessed at a common maturity of 22 °Brix total soluble solids (TSS), which necessitated the determination of when this maturity will be reached for each variety, region and warming scenario, and future period. The results indicate that both anthocyanin and TA levels will be affected negatively by a warming climate, but the magnitude of the impacts will differ between varieties and wine regions. Compared to 1990 levels, median anthocyanins concentrations are projected to decrease, depending on global climate model, by up to 3–12 % and 9–33 % for the northern wine regions by 2030 and 2070, respectively while 2–18 % reductions are projected in the southern wine regions for the same time periods. Patterns of reductions in the median Shiraz berry anthocyanin concentrations are similar to that of Cabernet Sauvignon; however, the magnitude is lower (up to 9–18 % in southern and northern wine regions respectively by 2070). Similarly, uneven declines in TA levels are projected across the study regions. The largest reductions in median TA are likely to occur in the present day warmer wine regions, up to 40 % for Chardonnay followed by 15 % and 12 % for Shiraz and Cabernet Sauvignon, respectively, by 2070 under the high warming projection (csiro_mk3_5). It is concluded that, under existing management practices, some of the key grape attributes that are integral to premium wine production will be affected negatively by a warming climate, but the magnitudes of the impacts vary across the established wine regions, varieties, the magnitude of warming and future periods considered.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00484-013-0724-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor’s skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.

This study investigates the institutional, social, and ecological dynamics that influence regional water governance and individual vineyard owners' decision making in global wine regions. Global wine grape production has grown steadily over the past 20 years, and climate change has emerged as a driver of transformation in wine regions resulting in a range of impacts. Changes to the climate are anticipated to accelerate in the future and present a number of challenges for wine regions; including risks to human systems, e.g., agriculture, labor, and economics, as well as ecological systems, e.g., surface and groundwater. Water is a critical resource for environmental and economic sustainability in wine regions, and vulnerability to freshwater resources in wine producing regions is expected to increase as wine regions experience climate extremes like heat and drought. We use the Institutional-Social-Ecological Dynamics (ISED) framework to help understand individual vineyard owner decision making about water management within the context of institutional, social, and ecological systems. We ask how the relationships between these systems impact outcomes for individual grape farmers adapting to climate challenges. Our empirical research uses document review and interviews with vineyard owners, planners, and natural resource managers in wine regions in Oregon, USA and Tasmania, Australia as a means to explore climate vulnerabilities and adaptation approaches. Subsequently we focus on an example vignette in each region to better understand individual decision making at the farm scale within the unique institutional, social, and ecological contexts identified in each region. Our cases highlight the finding that entrenched institutional regimes, in the context of ecological variability contribute to a social unevenness in access to water. Landowner conflict over water resources is likely to increase in the context of a hotter, drier climate in regions with wine industry growth. Individual vineyard owners have a range of attitudes and approaches to climate change planning and management; and adaptation around water is dependent on both economic resources and social values. Lessons from the individual farm scale help to inform broader implications of how institutional, social, and ecological drivers influence opportunities or barriers to the implementation of climate change adaptation practices in wine regions.

A robust methodology for conducting large-scale assessments of current and future water availability and use: A case study in Tasmania, Australia

Climate change modifies the base climate of the wine regions and, with it, the structure of their traditional types of wine production, imposing measures to adapt, mitigate, or capitalize on the newly emerging conditions. In order to assess the impact of climate change and establish the appropriate adaptation measures for each wine region, regional and local studies are needed, which allow knowledge of their current climate profile. The aim of this research was to identify the changes that appeared as an effect of climate change in the initial climate profile and the initial structure of the traditional types of wine production of Bordeaux (France), Loire Valley (France), Rhine-Main-Nahe (Germany), La Rioja (Spain) and Cotnari (Romania) wine regions, and also in climate suitability for wine production of the Sussex area from the UK. The study uses multi-year averages for the 1951–1990 and 1991–2010 time periods of reference bioclimatic indices for viticulture, namely the Average Temperature of the Growing Season (AvGST), the Huglin Index (HI), and the Oenoclimatic Aptitude Index (IAOe). The results of this research reveal significant changes in climate suitability for wine production of the studied wine regions: in the Bordeaux wine region, climate change led to the appearance of conditions for the cultivation of the Mediterranean climate varieties Grenache, Syrah, and Carignan; in the cool climate wine regions Rhine-Main-Nahe and Cotnari, traditional producers of white wines, the climate has also become suitable for the cultivation of Pinot noir and Cabernet franc varieties, and implicitly for the production of red wines; in all studied wine regions, the classes of climate suitability for viticulture shifted higher in altitude, as is the case of the La Rioja region, where, in the recent period, the grapevine can be grown up to 922.9 m asl, higher by 206.2 m compared to the 1951–1990 time period; in the low area of each wine region, one or even two new climate suitability classes for wine grape growing appeared. The shifts revealed by this research generate solid conclusions regarding the effect of climatic change on the viticultural potential of geographical areas, namely: in the context of climate change, the altitude of the wine region has a major influence on the evolution of the local viticulture potential; a higher topography allows a better adaptation of the wine region to climate change; low-elevation wine regions are more vulnerable to climate changes, especially the further south they are located; as an effect of climate change, conditions appear in the wine regions for the cultivation of new grapevine varieties and the production of new types of wine.

<p>Most European vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where seasonal water deficit has become increasingly important. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is seldomly thoroughly evaluated. Therefore, we aim to quantify the flowering-veraison water stress levels using Crop Water Stress Indicator (CWSI) over 1986–2015 for important European wine regions and to assess the respective potential Yield Lose Rate (YLR). Additionally, we also investigate whether an advanced flowering-veraison phase may help to alleviate the water stress with improved yield. A process-based grapevine model STICS is employed, which has been extensively calibrated for flowering and veraison stages using observed data at 38 locations with 10 different grapevine varieties. Subsequently, the model is being implemented at the regional level, considering site-specific calibration results and gridded climate and soil datasets. The findings suggest wine regions with stronger flowering-veraison CWSI tend to have higher potential YLR. However, contrasting patterns are found between wine regions in France-Germany-Luxembourg and Italy-Portugal-Spain. The former tends to have slight-to-moderate drought conditions (CWSI<0.5) and a negligible-to-moderate YLR (<30%), whereas the latter possesses severe-to-extreme CWSI (>0.5) and substantial YLR (>40%). Wine regions prone to a high drought risk (CWSI>0.75) are also identified, which are concentrated in southern Mediterranean Europe. An advanced flowering-veraison phase may have benefited from cooler temperatures and a higher fraction of spring precipitation in wine regions of Italy-Portugal-Spain, resulting in alleviated CWSI and moderate reductions of YLR. For those of France-Germany-Luxembourg, this can have reduced flowering-veraison precipitation, but prevalent alleviations of YLR are also found, possibly because of shifted phase towards a cooler growing season with reduced evaporative demands. Overall, such a retrospective analysis might provide new insights towards better management of seasonal water deficit for conventionally vulnerable Mediterranean wine regions, but also relatively cooler and wetter Central European regions. <em>Acknowledgements: This study was funded by the Clim4Vitis project—“Climate change impact mitigation for European viticulture: knowledge transfer for an integrated approach”, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under grant agreement no. 810176; it was also supported by FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020.</em></p>

This research simulates the impact of climate change on the distribution of the most important European wine regions using a comprehensive suite of spatially informative layers, including bioclimatic indices and water deficit, as predictor variables. More specifically, a machine learning approach (Random Forest, RF) was first calibrated for the present period and applied to future climate conditions as simulated by HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) to predict the possible spatial expansion and/or shift in potential grapevine cultivated area in 2020 and 2050 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Projected changes in climate depicted by the GCM and SRES scenarios results in a progressive warming in all bioclimatic indices as well as increasing water deficit over the European domain, altering the climatic profile of each of the grapevine cultivated areas. The two main responses to these warmer and drier conditions are 1) progressive shifts of existing grapevine cultivated area to the north–northwest of their original ranges, and 2) expansion or contraction of the wine regions due to changes in within region suitability for grapevine cultivation. Wine regions with climatic conditions from the Mediterranean basin today (e.g., the Languedoc, Provence, Cotes Rhone Meridionales, etc.) were shown to potentially shift the most over time. Overall the results show the potential for a dramatic change in the landscape for winegrape production in Europe due to changes in climate.

Central European regions are increasingly exposed to the escalating impacts of climate change, experiencing a surge in both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Effective action requires not only emission reduction but also robust adaptation to these risks. This paper presents the Resilient Built Environment Central Europe (RBE-CE) assessment system, a multi-scale assessment framework developed under the Interreg Central Europe SuPeRBE project to evaluate climate adaptation readiness across buildings and neighbourhoods. Grounded in the EN ISO 14091:2021 standard and aligned with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk assessment approach, the RBE-CE assessment system consists of two key components: the Resilient Buildings Tool (RBTool) and the Resilient Neighbourhoods Tool (RNTool). Together, these tools offer climate risk scoring at multiple urban scales, addressing resilience to specific climate hazards and key sectors. By enabling cross-scale assessments, RBE-CE evaluates the impacts of adaptation strategies from individual buildings to the neighbourhood level. The tools’ adaptability to Central European cities and regions allows for cross-regional performance comparisons. The RBE-CE assessment system empowers municipalities, architects, and urban planners to enhance climate resilience in projects, aligning responses to the unique hazards of their locations.

The Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) was derived from the relationship between remotely sensed vegetation indices and land surface temperature (T_S) in this study for assessing the soil moisture status at regional scale in South Korea. The Leaf Area Index (LAI) is newly applied in this method to overcome the increasing uncertainty of using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at high vegetation conditions. Both dryness indices were found to be well correlated with in situ soil moisture and 8-day average precipitation at most of the in situ measurement sites. The dryness indices accuracy was found to be influenced by rainfall events. An average correlation coefficient was improved from -0.253 to -0.329 when LAI was used instead of NDVI in calculating the TVDI. In the spatial analysis between the dryness indices and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) surface soil moisture (SSM) using geographically weighted regression (GWR), the results showed the average negative correlation (R) between the variables, while LAI-induced TVDI was more strongly correlated with SSM on average with the R value improved from -0.59 to -0.62. Both dryness indices and ASCAT SSM mappings generally showed coherent patterns under low vegetation and dry conditions. Based on these results, the LAI-induced TVDI accuracy as an index for soil moisture status was validated and found appropriate for use as an alternative and complementary method for NDVI-induced TVDI.

Assessing the grapevine crop water stress indicator over the flowering-veraison phase and the potential yield lose rate in important European wine regions

Towards an advanced assessment of the hydrological vulnerability of forests to climate change‐induced drought