America's foreign policy after Biden: What can the Indo‐Pacific region expect?

Abstract

AbstractWhat might the foreign policy of a potential Trump presidency or that of a Harris presidency look like, and what could their respective implications for the Indo‐Pacific be? The likelihood that Trump will revive his “America First” doctrine, including his trade war with China, suggests that the region may be in for another bumpy ride from a “Trump 2.0.” A Harris presidency will likely continue Biden's policy in engaging deeply (but selectively) with the Indo‐Pacific, while “de‐risking” America from China and resisting Chinese efforts to delimit the global commons and deny others access to it. Whether led by Trump or Harris, it is likely that the United States will proactively take on China but in slightly different ways. In either instance, Southeast Asia stands to benefit if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries play their cards right, but it will be in terms of their perceived usefulness to America's effort to counter China.