Alpha-Fetoprotein in Predicting Survival of Patients with Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Resection

Abstract

Background/Aim: Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) had been used as a prognostic factor in hepatocellular carcinoma but it was unknown what level of AFP could predict the survival of patients with ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) after resection. This retrospective study was to identify the best cutoff value of AFP for this prediction. Methods: Data of patients having hepatectomy for rHCC from 1989 to 2015 were reviewed. The receiver operating characteristic curve and Youden’s index were used to identify the cutoff value of AFP affecting survival. The patients were then divided into two groups by the cutoff for comparison. Results: Totally 114 patients were included. An AFP level of 256 ng/ml was found to affect survival (area under curve 63.1%, 95% confidence interval 0.514–0.748, p = 0.027; sensitivity 0.6, specificity 0.706). The 114 patients were divided into Group A (AFP < 256 ng/ml, n = 56) and Group B (AFP ≥ 256 ng/ml, n = 58). The median AFP level was 13.0 ng/ml (range, 2–253 ng/ml) in Group A and 11206.5 ng/ml (range, 259–481,000 ng/ml) in Group B (p < 0.001). Group A had a larger proportion of patients receiving transarterial embolization at the time of rupture, and the time to hepatectomy was longer in this group. Patients in Group B had more blood loss, more complications, larger tumors, and more cases of macrovascular/microvascular invasion. Overall survival (p = 0.013) and disease-free survival (p = 0.024) were significantly better in Group A. On multivariate analysis, AFP ≥ 256 ng/ml was an independent risk factor for overall survival. Conclusion: AFP ≥ 256 ng/ml had an adverse impact on the survival of patients with rHCC after resection.