All climate change is local: using physiology and biophysics to explore a changing world

Abstract

Understanding the mechanisms by which organisms respond to their physical environment is a powerful tool for forecasting the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Despite the pervasive effects of climate change on a global scale, organisms respond physiologically and behaviorally only to the very local characteristics of their immediate environment. Predicting where, when and with what magnitude the likelihood of changes in community structure are likely to occur requires that we understand how large‐scale processes (“environmental signals”) are downscaled to the level of the organism.Biophysical models (models that track heat inputs and outputs) provide a key tool for analyzing how environmental signals drive organism and ecosystem processes. Importantly, such approaches show that predictions cannot always be made through correlations with large‐scale signals, such as those measured by buoy or satellite. While such measurements are a vital tool for measuring environmental parameters over large spatial and long temporal scales, they are not sufficient for predicting organism responses. By understanding how factors such as body temperature interact with stressors such as nutrient load, fishing pressure and sedimentation, we can triage specific locations by modifying these latter stressors through effective management.