Abstract
The main aim of this paper is to develop a markovienne model for the evaluation of seismic hazard in the north-western part of Algeria. A region that accommodates from moderate to strong seismic activity (ML ≥ 2.5). This work is an attempt to conceive a stochastic model of the earthquake occurrences in order to assess the seismic hazard based on the use of a discrete time Markov chain with a finite state model. The presented model is applied on a complete data sample comprising most of the earthquakes that occurred in the Algerian northwestern area located between latitudes (34°N, 37°N) and longitudes (2°W, 3°E) since 1928 up to now (2018). The Markov chain is built over a homogeneous and completed catalogue, then the transition probability matrix of the chain is used to simulate the occurrences of the earthquakes in the coming decades. The results are compared to a classic Poisson model.
Highlights
Algeria is located in the northern part of the African plate facing the Eurasian plate
This paper presents a discrete-time Markov chain to model the seismic activity in northwestern region of Algeria in order to infer the past seismic events to evaluate probabilistic earthquake forecasting results
This section uses all the data and parameters defined in the previous sections to assess the probability of the occurrence of earthquakes in the future decades in each of the zones when using two models: the Poisson model and the Markov model
Summary
Algeria is located in the northern part of the African plate facing the Eurasian plate. Based on paleo-seismological data (Meghraoui, 1988) and on the study of source mechanisms (Meghraoui et al, 1996) the motion rate is evaluated 4-6 mm per year. This convergence geodynamic process produces a large band of about 100150 km, composed of Neogene deposits and deformed quaternary, comes into sight in the northern region of Algeria as the Tellian chain (Philip and Thomas, 1977), (Philip and Meghraoui, 1983), (Thomas, 1985).
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