Abstract
Abstract. A meso-scale ensemble system Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF) based on the limited area model ALADIN has been developed in the framework of Regional Cooperation for Limited Area modelling in Central Europe (RC LACE) consortium, focusing on short range probabilistic forecasts and profiting from advanced multi-scale ALARO physics. Its main purpose is to provide probabilistic forecast on daily basis for the national weather services of RC LACE partners. It also serves as a reliable source of probabilistic information applied to downstream hydrology and energy industry.
Highlights
There are a number of limited area model – ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPS) in Europe
We describe the system developed in frame of Regional Cooperation for Limited Area modelling in Central Europe (RC LACE, Wang et al, 2018)
In the ALADIN-LAEF system we use different strategies to simulate the uncertainty of the initial conditions and of the numerical model, while the perturbations at the boundaries are prescribed by the downscaled information from driving global EPS
Summary
There are a number of limited area model – ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPS) in Europe. Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF) became operational in 2011, at that time having horizontal resolution of 18 km and 37 vertical levels (Wang et al, 2011). In 2013 the first substantial upgrade was made, incorporating the increase of horizontal and vertical resolutions to 11 km and 45 vertical levels, geographically bigger computational domain (Fig. 1) and a new ensemble of surface data assimilations involving perturbed screen-level observations (Belluš et al, 2016). As well as the use of higher resolution, several other upgrades are implemented, such as new model version, new physics parametrization schemes based on ALADIN System canonical model configuration ALARO (Termonia et al, 2018), additional stochastic perturbation of physics tendencies for the surface prognostic fields, etc. ECMWF ENS ∼ 10 mil cy40t1 4.8 km 60 750 × 1250 linear 180 s 72 h (00:00/12:00 UTC) 16 + 1 ESDA [surface], blending (Phase I)/ENS BlendVar (Phase II) [upper-air] ALARO-1 multi-physics + surface SPPT ECMWF ENS ∼ 120 mil
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