Abstract
Potential changes in air quality associated with increases in SO 2 emissions resulting from industrial growth for Jiangsu Province and the Shanghai Municipality in China are evaluated for the years 1990 (current) and 2010 (future) with a “no further control” scenario. Two long-range transport models are used to estimate airborne concentrations and deposition of SO 2 and sulfate, based on available data on emissions originating from area and major point sources. Modeling results demonstrate how human health and ecological impacts are related to the projected scenario of industrial growth, in terms of the critical level (or concentration) and critical loads. The current approach provides an effective and valuable tool for preliminary assessment of potential impacts of these changes on human health and critical ecosystems in the region for use in integrated energy and environmental risk assessments.
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