Abstract
Southeastern Brazil, the most populous and developed region of the country, faces various environmental problems associated with the growth of its population in urban areas. It is the most industrialized area in the country, comprising the metropolitan areas of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, and other major cities. Air quality is a major concern, because the reported concentrations of certain regulated pollutants, typically ozone and fine particulate, have exceeded national standards. Due to the difficulty in taking measurements over many different areas, air quality modeling is a useful tool to estimate air pollutant concentrations. For southeastern Brazil, air quality modeling has been performed mostly with the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System with Simplified Photochemical Module and the Weather Research and Forecast with Chemistry models. One of the main objectives was to study the evolution of air quality associated with improved vehicle emission factors in urban areas, the impact of climate change on air quality, and the relationship between pollutant concentrations and health. Knowledge of mobile source emission factors has been continuously expanded by in-tunnel measurements and dynamometer protocols, which provide accurate data as inputs to photochemical air quality models. The spatial distribution of the mobile source emissions was constructed based on open access data related to the streets and traffic distribution. The mobile emission module was combined to the chemistry modeling and this implementation can be an example to be applied to other places that do not have a spatial distribution of this kind of source. Forecasts of pollutant concentrations can inform public policies, including those addressing the effects of pollutants on health of the general population, and studies of the impacts of using different fuels and implementation of emissions regulations programs.
Highlights
In southeastern Brazil, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) system has been used in the analysis of regulated pollutants and air quality forecasting, validated against ground-based measurements and ozone soundings, since 2011
Since 2004, the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System with Simplified Photochemical Module (BRAMS-SPM) modeling system has been applied in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) to evaluate the impact that increases in the size and population of urban areas have on the weather-based forecast of air quality
FROM THE BRAMS-SPM MODEL In recent years, the BRAMS-SPM model has been applied in a large number of studies conducted in Brazil, most focusing on the atmosphere over the MASP, over the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, or over the central region of the country (Vendrasco et al, 2009)
Summary
In southeastern Brazil, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) system has been used in the analysis of regulated pollutants and air quality forecasting, validated against ground-based measurements and ozone soundings, since 2011. The meteorological fields have been wellrepresented in the modeling, the pollutant concentration data present biases that are probably related to the estimated emissions inventory. Since 2004, the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System with Simplified Photochemical Module (BRAMS-SPM) modeling system has been applied in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) to evaluate the impact that increases in the size and population of urban areas have on the weather-based forecast of air quality. Studies concerning air quality and its effect on climate and health have been conducted in the MASP since the 1970s, the first such studies focusing on regulated pollutants, concentrations of particles, and speciation. The MASP presents particular characteristics in terms of atmospheric pollutant sources, climate, land use, and land occupation, when compared with other megacities in the world
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