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Air pollution and stroke mortality in Arak, Iran: Short-term and long- term exposure effects analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial

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Introduction: Air pollution poses significant public health risks in industrial regions, with stroke mortality emerging as a critical outcome. This study examines the association between air pollutant exposure and stroke mortality in Arak, Iran - an industrial city with consistently poor air quality exceeding WHO thresholds. Materials and methods: We conducted a time-series analysis of 1,010 stroke deaths (2019-2022) using zero-inflated negative binomial regression to model over-dispersed mortality data. Pollutant concentrations (PM2.5, PM10, NO₂, O₃, SO₂) were collected from four monitoring stations representing industrial, traffic, and residential zones. Effects were assessed for short-term (1-3 months) and long-term (6-24 months) exposures, with adjustment for meteorological and demographic confounders. Results: NO₂ demonstrated the strongest short-term association (2-month RR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.30-1.75, p<0.001). PM10 showed a slight increase in risk at the 2-month lag (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 0.98–1.14), although it was not statistically significant. Long-term PM2.5 exposure significantly increased mortality risk (24-month RR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05-1.58). A possible invers association was observed for SO₂ (2-month RR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.36–0.97), while O₃ effects varied over time. Conclusion: Industrial emissions (particularly NO₂ and particulate matter) significantly contribute to stroke mortality in Arak. The identified exposure– response relationships highlight the importance of stricter emission controls on vehicular and industrial sources and targeted health interventions for high-risk populations. Further investigation of pollutant interactions is also essential to better understand their combined effects on stroke mortality.

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  • Mar 8, 2023
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Several studies on long-term air pollution exposure and sleep have reported inconsistent results. Large-scale studies on short-term air pollution exposures and sleep have not been conducted. We investigated the associations of long- and short-term exposure to ambient air pollutants with sleep in a Chinese population based on over 1 million nights of sleep data from consumer wearable devices. Air pollution data including particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3) were collected from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Short-term exposure was defined as a moving average of the exposure level for different lag days from Lag0 to Lag0-6. A 365-day moving average of air pollution was regarded as long-term exposure. Sleep data were recorded using wearable devices from 2017 to 2019. The mixed-effects model was used to evaluate the associations. We observed that sleep parameters were associated with long-term exposure to all air pollutants. Higher levels of air pollutant concentrations were associated with longer total sleep and light sleep duration, shorter deep sleep duration, and decreases in wake after sleep onset (WASO), with stronger associations of exposures to NO2 and CO [a 1-interquartile range (IQR) increased NO2 (10.3 μg/m3) was associated with 8.7 min (95% CI: 8.08 to 9.32) longer sleep duration, a 1-IQR increased CO (0.3 mg/m3) was associated with 5.0 min (95% CI: − 5.13 to − 4.89) shorter deep sleep duration, 7.7 min (95% CI: 7.46 to 7.85) longer light sleep duration, and 0.5% (95% CI: − 0.5 to − 0.4%) lower proportion of WASO duration to total sleep]. The cumulative effect of short-term exposure on Lag0-6 is similar to long-term exposure but relatively less. Subgroup analyses indicated generally greater effects on individuals who were female, younger (< 45 years), slept longer (≥ 7 h), and during cold seasons, but the pattern of effects was mixed. We supplemented two additional types of stratified analyses to reduce repeated measures of outcomes and exposures while accounting for individual variation. The results were consistent with the overall results, proving the robustness of the overall results. In summary, both short- and long-term exposure to air pollution affect sleep, and the effects are comparable. Although people tend to have prolonged total sleep duration with increasing air pollutant concentrations, their sleep quality might remain poor because of the reduction in deep sleep.

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For industrial cities, quantifying the influence of a given emission source on air quality is very important for making a detailed control strategy to the emissions. By taking use of the mobile observations and WRF-STILT model simulations, this study analyzes the air pollution characteristics and air quality influences from an industrial emission source in Xinji, China. During the study period, the hourly average concentrations of smoke, SO2, and NOx emitted from the industrial source are 1.01, 22.04, and 26.22 mg/m3, respectively. The mobile observations show that with the increase of distance from the emission source, the concentration of air pollutants increases first and then decreases. The peak values of PM2.5, SO2, and NOx appear at the distance of around 0–3 km away from the emission source, among which PM2.5 and SO2 increase first and then decrease before stabilizing, while NOx is interfered by emissions from the traffic along the roads. Within the distance of 3 km, the emission source has obvious influence on the air quality with contribution rate 10–48% at night time and 3–23% at day time. The simulation results of WRF-STILT also support the observed gradient change characteristics of air pollutants, suggesting that this industrial emission source is an important pollution source for regions around it. Our results further show that the meteorological conditions play an important role on the transport capacity of industrial emissions. The results of this study provide support for quantifying the scope of influence of fixed emission sources, especially in industrial cities.

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