Agroterrorism: Issues of Reality

Food security in a just energy transition is a growing debate about designing sustainable food secure networks worldwide. Energy transition, land-use change, and food security are crucial factors for food security and provision. The increased demand for food products and customer preferences regarding food safety provide various issues for the current agriculture food supply chain (AFSC). Along with rising sustainability concerns, strict government regulation, food security, and traceability concerns compel managers, business houses, and practitioners working in AFSC to adopt new tools, techniques, and methodologies to model current food supply chain problems. Thus, in turn, design the food logistics network for food security. Hence, this study investigates the core determinants of food security and supply in Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Lebanon over the period of 2010–2019. In order to estimate the objectives of the study, we employ the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares estimators (DOLS) to draw the study findings. However, the estimated results show a negative association of land use with food security and supply. Likewise, energy transition, gross domestic product, and agricultural value added (AVA) contribute to the food security supply. In contrast, urbanization's negative but insignificant contribution to the food supply in selected economies exists. Besides, another core objective of the study is to investigate the moderate role of the energy transition on the gross domestic product, agriculture sector, and land use and find the significant contribution to the food supply. However, the current study also tries forecasting for the next 10 years and employs the impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition analysis (VDA). Congruently, this study uses the pairwise panel causality test and finds exciting outcomes. The COVID-19 crisis has posed challenges such as energy consumption and food security issues. On behalf of the results, the current study proposes imperative policies to investigate the desired level of food supply. The findings provide valuable insights for experts, policymakers, and officials to take practical measures for energy use and food security challenges.

I. Introduction Few economic events of the past fifty years were more dramatic than the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Economic and political circumstances in Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines produced severe currency depreciation and recession previously unknown to the region. While the causes and consequences of the crisis are thoroughly addressed elsewhere (for example, Woo, Carleton, and Rosario 2000; Pesenti and Tille 2000; Kamin 1999), a largely unexplored issue is the impact on food security. On the one hand, depreciation and recession make it difficult for low-income households to obtain adequate food supplies (Rosegrant and Ringler 1998; Barichello 1998; Booth 1998; Mya Than 2001). Depreciation also increases the relative price of traded goods, including most agricultural commodities, so that the crisis countries should experience increases in rural income, food production, and long-term food security (Barichello 1998; Booth 1998). A third potential issue is unique to food-importing countries. During a financial crisis, capital flight and financial contagion cause the capital account to become negative and require an offsetting surplus in the current account, assuming foreign exchange reserves are negligible. In principle, this adjustment occurs via increased export revenues or decreased import expenditures, though Higgins and Klitgaard (2000) confirm that import expenditures and import volume decreased substantially during the Asian financial crisis. If staple food imports also decrease, available food supplies would fall and harm short-run food security. A similar scenario occurs when price or production shocks increase the cost of food imports compared with available foreign exchange supplies. This article explores the connection between foreign exchange supplies, food security, and the financial crisis of 1997-98 in Indonesia and the Philippines. Of all the Asian crisis countries, Indonesia and the Philippines are examined separately because of their low per capita incomes and vulnerability to short- and long-term food insecurity. Both countries are also highly dependent on cereal consumption and are net cereal importers, with food grains comprising the bulk of cereal imports. Section II of the article reviews prior studies regarding balance of payments shocks and food security. Section III constructs a working definition of food security and examines the specific conditions in Indonesia and the Philippines. The methodology, data, and regression model are described in Section IV, followed by estimation results in Section V. The article concludes with implications for food security and balance of payments policies. II. Background Previous studies of foreign exchange supplies and food security primarily address compensatory financing issues. Compensatory financing allows countries experiencing short-term food shortages to obtain foreign exchange for food imports at favourable terms from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or other institutions. Valdes and Konandreas (1981) show that countries not normally dependent on food imports must occasionally use a significant share of their export revenues for food imports during price or production shocks. Goreux (1981) explains how the IMF's compensatory scheme for stabilizing export revenues from the 1970s could be modified to accommodate cereal imports during consumption shortfalls. (1) Huddleston et al. (1984) examine the IMF's Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility (CCFF) and find potential for offsetting temporary and sudden food import shocks. Others are less supportive of the CCFF (Green 1983; Green and Kirkpatrick 1982; Kumar 1989; Diakosavvas and Green 1998), arguing that it gives too much attention to stabilizing export revenue and insufficient attention to food consumption. An implicit question in the above studies is whether foreign exchange supplies actually constrain food imports. …

With the development of globalisation, countries such as the United Kingdom (UK) heavily rely on shipping for food imports and supplies. With the unpredictable impacts of black swan events, such as the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak and the armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which are traditional food export countries, global freight supply chains could dramatically change, which significantly affects the global food supply chain (FSC) resilience, requiring new solutions to be found. Therefore, it is vital to assess a country’s food importing system by sea to ensure its FSC resilience. However, it is challenging to analyse different food supply resilience levels on a national scale given the high uncertainties in the key relevant elements (e.g. food supplies and transportation) influencing FSC resilience. This paper aims to develop a new method to assess FSC resilience at a country level by pioneering the combination of the two most relevant attributes, its production-to-supply ratio and shipping transport connectivity, used to present food supply security separately in the current literature. Within this context, food production and import distance affecting the connectivity of various food supplies are selected to estimate FSC resilience in this study. The findings, including a new index framework to assess national food resilience, significantly contribute to a country’s food security and the rational development of countermeasures and policies when necessary. To demonstrate the significance of the findings, the resilience of the UK FSC is first evaluated in a real case study, followed by a comparative study with Canada, Australia, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the FSCs of different countries. The findings of the studies can be used to monitor FSC resilience of the countries and provide rational policies for enhancing FSC resilience.

Many African countries depend heavily on food imports. Recent price increases in international food markets and price volatility threaten their food security. This essay analyses how international market developments affect domestic food prices in Africa and discusses some strategies to help strengthen domestic food security in countries that rely heavily on food imports. Key to countervailing food import dependency is diversification of food suppliers, commodities and consumption patterns. Besides diversification, bottom of the pyramid consumers need more and better employment/income-generating activities, resulting in improved purchasing power. This requires active involvement of African countries in domestic food markets, with policies aimed at strengthening food security being central. However, achieving more food and nutrition security through increased food system resilience is not a binary choice between domestic production or food import. National policies towards such goals must include all possible measures and optimize domestic production capacities alongside imports, depending on the national economic, political and ecological context.

Who Eats, Where, What, and How? COVID-19, Food Security, and Canadian Foodscapes

An accurate assessment of food security and its challenges is essential for formulating effective measures and promoting sustainable socioeconomic development. This study develops an evaluation system for China's food security, focusing on four dimensions: food supply, food access, food production stability, and food continuity. The entropy weight extended matter element model is used for quantitative processing, which ensures that the integrity of the information can be guaranteed to a greater extent while reducing the influence of subjective factors, and then, the study evaluates the food security of different functional areas in China, and finally, it diagnoses the main obstacles to food security by using the obstacle degree model. (1) From 2000 to 2020, China's food security level fluctuated, initially declining, and then increasing. The food security level in major production and marketing areas is generally higher, while the primary marketing areas exhibit the lowest security levels. (2) The level of grain yields and the total power of machinery per unit area are the key factors affecting food security; the impact of inputs of agricultural materials (fertilizers and pesticides) on food security has decreased and is constantly stabilizing. In the main marketing area, the per capita food share is significantly lower than in the other functional areas, which has the greatest impact on food security. (3) Analysis of the obstacle factors reveals that the food supply and access security subsystems are crucial for ensuring national, production, and marketing security. From 2000 to 2020, the average obstacle degrees of food supply and food access security at the national level were 46.56% and 21.17%, respectively; for the production and marketing areas, they were 58.47% and 21.45%; and for primary marketing areas, they were 37.69% and 26.59%. In major grain-producing areas, the main obstacles lay within the food supply security and food production stability subsystems, with average obstacle degrees of 53.77% and 15.67%, respectively, from 2000 to 2020. The above results provide a scientific basis for comprehensively improving the level of food security in China, optimizing the structure of food production in each functional area, and formulating regionalized policies for stabilizing and maintaining food production and supply.

Today, food security is a global problem. The Qatar National Food Security Programme describes the dimensions of food security in Qatar in terms of food quality, physical availability, and affordability, alongside the resilience of the country's food supply to short-term trade shocks and long-term global supply risks. The world's richest country per capita, Qatar has a population of just over two million, but the country does not have sufficient arable land and irrigation water which are severely limiting local food production. Thus, over 90% of food consumed in Qatar is imported, making the country vulnerable to supply disruptions and price hikes. When the global food crisis of 2007-2008 occurred, food import dependent countries like Qatar were hit harder and policy makers as well as institutions such as the World Bank prescribed the adoption of greater diversification and management of food imports for enhanced food security. Therefore, it is vital to conduct research to understand how much, what and with whom Qatar trades and what are the determinants of the trade pattern between Qatar and its food import partner countries. This will allow Qatar to develop a better food import strategy in order to complement the proposed increase in domestic food production to attain increased resilience in food security. Using food import and data other variables recorded from 2004 to 2013, we used a gravity model of bilateral trade to estimate the determinants of food import trade between Qatar and its trading partners. In its basic formulation, the gravity model suggests that the value of trade between any two countries is directly related to the sizes of the economies and inversely related to the distance between the two countries. We enhanced the predictive capacity of the gravity model by including other variables that are known to influence trade. Examples include dummy variables to capture regional integration, corruption perception, openness of the economy, and changes in foreign exchange rate regimes. In addition we used the Herfindahl Hirschmann Index to determine the extent of concentration in the import market for food. This allowed us to determine whether or not unusually large amounts of food items were imported from a few countries, a situation that would imply insufficient import market diversification. Preliminary results revealed that the Gross Domestic Product of countries from which Qatar imported food items is positively and significantly related to the value of food import by Qatar, suggesting that Qatar imported more food items from larger economies than from smaller countries. In addition, distance is negatively and significantly related to the value of trade, and hence Qatar imported more food items from nearby countries than from faraway countries. Both results are in conformance with economic theory underlying the gravity model. Among the remaining variables, we observed that Corruption Perception Index is positively related to the value of trade, implying that Qatar is importing more food items from less corrupt countries.

Liberia's 14 year civil war destroyed domestic agricultural production, veterinary and agricultural education, extension services and domestic food security. These losses severely limited domestic food production, and basic hygiene and sanitation: potable water, abattoirs, cold chain and food storage were greatly diminished. The average Liberian life expectancy fell from 45.8 in 1990 to 41.8 years presently. The population birth and death rate are two of the highest globally with a resulting population growth rate, of 2.7% per annum; this growth rate requires an immediate and concerted focus on domestic food production to alleviate nutritional inadequacy and hunger, trade imbalances and loss of foreign exchange credits. Food supply nationally is presumed adequate because of importation, though domestic production is inadequate. Unequal distribution precludes food security for all Liberians. Value chain augmentation, enhancing food availability across all sectors of Liberian society and ensuring distribution of a safe food supply needs critical development. Infant mortality remains one of the highest in the world (approximately 160/1000 births), much of which is attributed to food insecurity, food contamination and lack of uniformly available potable water. Recreation of Liberia's public health and food security requires redevelopment of disease monitoring and laboratory diagnostic capability to re-establish safe food production and handling practices across all sectors. This will allow determination of endemic disease burden for the principal livestock species: poultry, sheep, goats, cattle and swine. Creation of a national disease surveillance/monitoring system allows for targeted disease intervention, ensuring vaccination for correct serotypes and most critically prevalent diseases. Creation of community level training and support will target intervention of local diseases, but also allow for national prioritization of diseases. Targeting which are most prevalent or most likely to cause production limiting effects will require periodic surveillance, targeted vaccination, and chemotherapeutic intervention and evaluation of therapeutic success.

Rural people have the indigenous knowledge of processing and preserving food to ensure household food security during times of food scarcity. Although indigenous knowledge plays an important role in ensuring household food security for many rural households, it is often overlooked as a solution to address food and nutrition insecurity. The main objective of the study was to identify and document indigenous food preservation and processing techniques used by rural women to ensure household food security. Qualitative data were collected from small-scale farming households in seven villages through focus group discussions, individual interviews, and observations. The researchers adhered to ethical considerations (approvals, permissions with the relevant authorities, consent from participants, their privacy, anonymity, and confidentiality) throughout the research process. Data were analysed using thematic content analysis. The results indicate that sun-drying and fermentation were the most commonly used methods for food preservation, while the most prevalent methods used for processing vegetables (merogo) involved cooking, mashing, pelleting and sun-drying. Crops, such as mung beans, bambara groundnuts and sorghum are threshed and winnowed to remove all impurities. The seeds, which are to be used in the next planting season, are treated with aloe ash to prevent pest infestation. Indigenous fruits are gathered from the wild and eaten as snacks. Indigenous dried vegetables (merogo) and fermented marula beer were sold to generate income that is used to buy other basic food items. The paper concludes by highlighting the existing indigenous knowledge that rural households demonstrate in terms of food processing and preservation. Given the existing knowledge and the commonly used methods for preserving and processing food, it is crucial to create awareness regarding ways of retaining nutrients during food preservation and processing to ensure availability and proper utilisation of indigenous foods for household food security purposes. The study recommends that these methods, including ways of retaining nutrients, be documented and made easily accessible for rural households to use now and in the future for ensuring household food and nutrition security. Therefore, there is a need for agricultural and food security policies to embrace, adopt, promote and adapt indigenous knowledge and technologies to address food security. Key words: indigenous knowledge, food preservation, food processing, food security, indigenous food preservation

Food Security and Agricultural Trade Liberalization

Drought events can disrupt food security and increase the risk of violent conflicts. In an interconnected global food system, countries rely on both local food production and imports to meet domestic demand. When assessing the impact of drought risk on national food security, however, imported crops are often overlooked. This study incorporates international crop trade information to understand the role of crop imports in the drought risk profile of countries. We focus on conflict-affected countries due to their reliance on food imports, and particular vulnerability to the impacts of drought events and their corresponding cascading effects. We develop a framework to quantify drought risk associated with domestic production and imports of crops (i.e. composite drought risk) by combining gridded drought risk data with crop production and trade for 23 countries. Our findings show that most conflict-affected countries face drought risk primarily through domestic production, as most consumed calories are produced locally. Nevertheless, including crop imports alters the composite drought risk profiles considerably (>10%) in 13 countries, with changes reaching 40-50% in some cases. Crop imports also carry their own external drought risk, contributing more than 10% of high drought risk in 21 countries and amounting to 80% in some cases. Furthermore, we identify critical trade connections that expose countries to concentrated drought risks from specific trading partners. We demonstrate the need to incorporate both domestic and import-related drought risks in food security assessments, and we suggest potential strategies based on countries’ composite drought risk profiles for drought resilient food security.

Understanding the Stickiness of Commodity Supply Chains Is Key to Improving Their Sustainability

Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965–2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d) has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (<2000 kcal/cap/d) has dropped from 52% to 3%. Largest improvements are seen in the MENA region, Latin America, China and Southeast Asia. Besides, the composition of diets has changed considerably within the study period: the world population living with high supply of animal source food (>15% of dietary energy supply) increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d) has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

The Big Question

The continuous upward trajectory observed in total grain production serves as a fundamental pillar for guaranteeing food security. Nevertheless, relying solely on the measurement of China’s overall food security status through total grain output is inherently biased and neglects to capture the comprehensive nature of food security. This study adopts a food supply and demand balance perspective and constructs an evaluation indicator system for food security based on indicators such as grain yield per unit area, per capita grain possession, grain inventory, and inventory ratio. The weight of each indicator in the food security system is calculated using the entropy value method, and a comprehensive evaluation of China’s food security level from 1980 to 2017 is conducted. The study revealed that China’s food supply and demand exhibited a discernible upward trajectory in development. Notably, the food supply demonstrated greater volatility, whereas the food demand remained relatively stable but experienced incremental growth. Between approximately 1985 and 1993, China’s food supply and demand subsystem briefly experienced a state of mild imbalance, followed by a state of moderate imbalance around 2003. These imbalances were primarily attributed to insufficient effective food supply. In terms of the equilibrium between supply and demand in the context of food security, China’s food supply and demand exhibit a predominantly balanced condition with a slight surplus, wherein the adequacy of food supply significantly influences food security. Furthermore, the provision of policy support serves as a robust assurance for food security, and China’s existing policy framework for food security demonstrates a constructive impact.