Agriculture's Likely Role in Meeting Canada's Kyoto Commitments*

Kyoto and the carbon footprint of nations

The article deals with the issues related to the implementation of EU emission trading scheme in Lithuania. The main objectives of the article are to analyse the main features and requirements of EU emission trading scheme and to assess the impact of GHG emission trading on economy through the energy price increase caused by carbon restrictions on energy sector. The aim of EU Emission trading scheme is to help member states to fulfil their Kyoto commitments at lowest costs. In Lithuania GHG emissions in 2004 amounted to 20.2 mill. t and were by 2.5 time lower Lithuania’s Kyoto commitments. The total number of allowances allocated for Lithuanian emission trading sector in both emissiontrading periods was not imposed by Kyoto commitments. The main constraint for 2005-2007 is laid in Annex II criteria – not to allocate more allowances than it will be needed. The quantity of allowances member state may issue was governed by 11 common allocation criteria. While the directive does not explicitly prescribe a given number of allowances, each member state must respect the criteria, which mean that in practice their leeway is limited. The general concern of EC is that if too many allowances were issued there would be no scarcity, and no market develops. Analysis of new Lithuanian National Allocation Plan for 2008-2012 indicated that with the growth of Lithuanian economy CO2 emissions per GDP seeking to maintain the average annual GHG emission level up to 2012 should be reduced by 33%. This is important challenge for Lithuanian enterprises taking into accountanticipated closure of unit 2 at Ignalina NPPP. It is foreseen that with the reduced supply of GHG emission allowances in 2008-2012 because of restrictions imposed in new NAPs to GHG emission trading sectors and the fast economic growth in new member states will drive the price of allowance up to 50-60 EUR/t. This will have impact on increased investments in use of renewable energy sources especially of biomass in energy sector and in increase of energy efficiency. Therefore it is very important to ensure the investments of energy and industrial enterprises in modernization of energy sector. Such high prices of allowances will create the situation when previously not competitive in the energy market expensive advanced technologies become efficient having short payback period. However these trends will cause increase in energy prices to consumers. One of the possibilities to reduce the burden of GHG emission trading on economy and to mitigate GHG allowances and energy price increase is application of Flexible Kyoto mechanism which are cheaper options to acquire GHG emission credits and to cover increased GHG emissions in the country. In general forecast for the second trading periods is not favourable for Lithuanian economic development as carbon restriction on Lithuanian economy reduce competitiveness of Lithuania economy (which is low GHG emission economy comparing with old EU member states) in EU market will lead to the energy price increase. The additional taxes on energy and other goods may have negative impact on Lithuanian economy because introduction of new environmental taxes should be implemented through the green budget reform which implies the rise of environmental taxes by reduction of the income, social security and value-added or profit taxes and maintaining budget revenues constant. Positive impact of The EU emission trading for Lithuania is the promotion of use of bio fuels, CHP and other advanced energy production and consumption technologies having external benefits on society in terms of increased knowledge, skills, employment etc.

Spain׳s fulfillment of its Kyoto commitments and its fundamental greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction drivers

Ladies and Gentlemen, I am very pleased to have been invited to open this conference. Increasingly, renewable energy – mainly in the guise of wind farms – is becoming a mainstream issue with both the media and the public. This is to be welcomed. Renewable energy has a key role in a sustainable energy policy that is needed to help tackle climate change. But a truly sustainable energy policy needs to consider and address other concerns, for example the possible impacts on biodiversity of wind farms. I would like to thank the British Ornithologists Union for arranging this conference and Chris Perrins (BOU President) for his welcome. Climate change is a grave and present problem. Caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels for energy, it is an unintended consequence of our drive towards a modern economy. In our need for heat and light, for power to travel and for business, we have unwittingly caused climate change. And it will not go away. We need to deal with it. Now. In our 2003 Energy White Paper (DTI 2003), we signalled a new direction for energy policy. It sets out four objectives for our energy policy: To put ourselves on a path to cut the UK's carbon dioxide emissions – the main contributor to global warming – by some 60% by about 2050 with real progress by 2020; To maintain the reliability of energy supplies; To promote competitive markets in the UK and beyond, helping to raise the rate of sustainable economic growth and to improve our productivity; and To ensure that every home is adequately and affordably heated. In brief, the first of these objectives equates to more renewables and a redoubling of our efforts in improving our energy efficiency. You will all be aware of the Government's Kyoto commitments and our additional efforts to achieve 60% reductions in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. In addition to achieving better energy efficiency, in homes and industry, it is imperative that energy production is cleaner and more efficient. The 2003 White Paper, and legislation and support measures introduced since, are establishing a process to achieve cleaner production incorporating challenging targets for renewable energy levels, and I am sure you will be discussing and debating those here at this conference. I announced last week that the UK was on target to meet its Kyoto commitments. As part of our review of the Government's climate change programme it is estimated that our CO2 emissions will be about 13% below 1990 levels in 2010 and that emissions of all greenhouse gases will be around 20% below. However, we cannot afford to be complacent. The figures also showed there has been a 2.2% increase in carbon dioxide emissions between 2002 and 2003. This is disappointing. It underlines the scale of the challenge we have set ourselves of delivering a 20% cut in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010. Increased sourcing of energy from renewable sources will be an integral and essential part of achieving those figures. That is why we have set a target of achieving 10% of the supply of renewables by 2010 and a goal of doubling this by 2020. It also addresses the UK's obligations under the European Renewables Directive to adopt national targets for renewables that are consistent with reaching the overall EU target of 12% of energy (22.1% of electricity) from renewables by 2010. The Government's renewables obligation on all electricity suppliers in Great Britain to supply a specific proportion of electricity from eligible renewables is a key strand to expand the sector and to achieving these targets. The level of the obligation is 4.9% for 2004/05, and is set to increase to 10.4% by 2010/11. Changes to the renewables obligation, (introduced on 1 April 2005) include increasing the level of the obligation in stages to 15.4% in 2015/16. Indications are that the obligation is working well and encouraging investment − 2004 was a record year for wind farm construction with 240 MW of new capacity constructed, and industry estimates suggest that 600 MW will be built this year [BWEA figures; http://www.bwea.com]. In 2003, 2.7% of electricity was supplied from all renewables so we are starting from a low base. From the construction figures it can be seen that capacity is now being built at a rapidly increasing rate but we still have a long way to go. Wind power is widely recognized as the most cost effective renewable technology with scope for significant expansion. We therefore expect wind to make the main contribution towards our renewables targets and this will only be achieved by both onshore and offshore generation. The Government is not, however, blinkered in its approach to developing renewables. To achieve all our millenium goals and achieve sustainable development we must also address the protection of biodiversity. We must ensure that in meeting our renewable energy targets the quality and diversity of wildlife and natural features are protected. To that end, DEFRA (Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs) has undertaken a number of initiatives to ensure that wind farms, and other sources of renewable energy, are not harmful to our biodiversity. We are in the final stages of a 1-year ‘horizon scanning’ project reviewing the potential impacts of future energy policy on UK biodiversity. The project is being undertaken by a consortium led by ADAS, and supported by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Acorus, National Energy Foundation and the University of Plymouth Marine Studies. The project was established in order to review and assess the potential direct and indirect impacts on UK biodiversity (terrestrial and marine) of future energy polices. It will summarize current knowledge, identify gaps and make prioritized recommendations for further research and suggested policy and practical responses. A stakeholder workshop has been held and the final draft project report is currently under peer review. I hope it will be finalized for publication around the end of April or early May. The project has focused on the following energy sources: onshore wind; offshore wind; marine current and tidal energy sources; biomass crops (including agricultural residues, forestry residues and energy crops); small scale hydro (< 5 MW); and novel technologies (solar water heating, ground source heat pumps, photovoltaic and hydrogen fuel cells). The review confirms that wind energy is likely to provide the largest proportion of the renewable energy target by 2020, but there remain some fundamental gaps in knowledge of the impacts on biodiversity and the effectiveness of some mitigation proposals. The land take required for sufficient production of biomass fuels in the UK means that it is unlikely to make up more than 5–20% of the 2020 target, unless large quantities of fuel are imported, the impacts of which will need to be researched and understood. A better solution would be the increased production and use of existing biomass sources in the UK, though best practice guidelines will be needed to ensure minimal impact on UK biodiversity. Of the other technologies, photovoltaics seem to be the renewable energy technology that provides least impact upon biodiversity, provided that manufacturing and mining are subject to stringent environmental requirements. However their rate of development even in a best-case assessment, suggest that this technology is unlikely to provide a significant contribution to the renewables target by 2020. Hence it is unlikely to significantly reduce the input required by the leading renewable energy technologies of onshore and offshore wind and biomass. Solar water heating and ground source heat pumps (GSHP) may provide a means to reduce electricity demand both through the provision of heat and, for GSHP, cooling, but further effort is needed to encourage significant uptake of these technology types. In view of the generally small area of UK land or seabed that is estimated to be required by the scale of each technology considered in the scenarios, it is anticipated that the scenarios formulated for the review for energy generation in 2020 will be met with minimal impacts on biodiversity. To achieve this, however, it will be necessary for renewable energy developments to avoid, wherever possible, sites of high biodiversity interest. Where this is not possible mitigation can often be put in place to address the potential impacts. Legislative and policy measures are available to mitigate and remove many of the biodiversity impacts identified. All schemes require an environmental impact assessment, and where Natura 2000 site are likely to be affected, additional assessments are needed. However, the effectiveness of these mechanisms in achieving biodiversity protection depends on people and industry understanding them and on their effective implementation. In relation to the development of wind farms offshore I am pleased to say that consents have been granted for 12 of the round 1 proposals. Whilst biodiversity objections were raised initially in relation to many of the proposals, these have largely been overcome through cooperation and dialogue between developers, stakeholders and the government's statutory nature conservation agency, English Nature. As a result, the first offshore wind farm at North Hoyle, North Wales, was completed in November 2003 and the second at Scroby Sands, Norfolk, UK, was commissioned in December 2004. Further developments will be constructed in 2005. UK Developers are now pressing ahead with their planning for round 2 offshore wind farms and both the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and DEFRA are supporting work to survey the Irish Sea, The Wash and Greater Thames areas to ensure that any areas of importance to bird populations are identified. In parallel with that work we are developing guidance (DEFRA, 2005) for the industry to help it better understand the potential impacts on biodiversity, and in particular species and habitats protected under the European Wild Birds and Habitats Directives. Whilst currently still under development, that guidance sets out both the potential impacts and steps that can and should be taken to address those. It recognizes that the potential impacts of offshore wind farms on birds can be divided into five categories: (1) habitat loss; (2) loss of food resources; (3) displacement; (4) barrier effects; and (5) collision mortality. Habitat loss refers to the direct loss of seabed resulting from the placement of the turbine foundations and any scour protection, along with any associated losses or changes to benthos due to scour or smothering. Loss of food resources (i.e. fish stocks or invertebrates) can result from damage, disturbance, or scouring of the sites during the development's construction or maintenance phases. Displacement is used here to describe the potential for birds to avoid turbines, or the entire area of a wind farm, due to their reluctance to feed adjacent to large structures because of a perception of threat. This is likely to vary greatly depending on species, and perhaps also on issues such as the size and spacing of turbines and noise caused by the rotors, and lighting. Displacement is likely to be increased by maintenance activities requiring the use of boats and helicopters. Barrier effects result from birds changing their flight lines in response to the perceived barrier presented by a row of turbines. This relates to regular local movements, for example between feeding and roosting areas, as well as to migratory flight paths. The barrier effect could result in birds undertaking longer flights to avoid wind farms, thus resulting in increased energy expenditure and reduced time for other essential activities. If birds are prevented from reaching feeding grounds because of the barrier caused by the turbines, sterilization of the feeding grounds could result. Collision mortality as a result of birds striking turbine towers, nacelles or rotors may be a significant issue where large numbers of birds make regular flights through the wind farm area, especially during conditions of poor visibility or when birds panic in response to disturbance. All of these potential impacts are likely to be more significant and have a greater effect on populations where several wind farms are proposed in the same area. It will be therefore important to undertake assessments of the potential cumulative effects of all proposed wind farms where they are likely to affect the same species or populations of birds. We hope that the guidance will assist developers to take steps to avoid any potential harmful effects at the earliest opportunity, minimizing costs to them and helping to ensure that projects proceed in a sustainable fashion to meet our renewable targets. In addition to being sent, on 23 March 2005, to industry organizations and conservation groups such as the RSPB, a copy of the draft guidance will be placed on the DEFRA website and I would welcome comments on it. Despite the attention focused on offshore wind developments, onshore projects continue to come forward. While there is greater knowledge of wind farm impacts in an onshore environment, the onus is still on developers to come forward with carefully thought out projects that have been considered against a wide range of interests, including any impacts on birds. There is no escaping from the reality of climate change and the effects that it will have not just on mankind, but also our biodiversity. It is already clear that sea-level rise will result in coastal squeeze, landward erosion and displacement of coastal habitats and many migratory bird populations. If we do not address climate change many of these species will suffer and possibly be lost. We must therefore, reduce emissions and usage. But we must also ensure that our solutions – such as onshore and offshore wind farms – also have minimal impacts on our biodiversity. I believe that we have in place a system that will ensure that this is indeed the case. We have set out objectives to do so that recognize this need and we are committed to their implementation. I wish you a successful conference and I look forward to hearing your conclusions.

Governments in Canada subsidize a number of socially beneficial services, including health care, education, and energy services. Subsidies to the energy sector that are for oil and gas production, however, are not all socially benefi cial. In part, they contribute to negative environmental impacts and hinder the development of environmentally friendly alternative energy options. Indeed, Canada’s implementation of the Kyoto Protocol is seriously threatened by continued government support for oil and gas production, a sector with large and rapidly growing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This chapter examines the extent and type of government support provided to the oil and gas sector in Canada between 1996 and 2002 within the context of GHG emission trends and Kyoto commitments. We begin with a discussion of what constitutes a subsidy, at what point subsidies are ‘perverse’, and the need for an evaluation of subsidies in Canada, especially in the energy sector.

The effectiveness of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

The voluntary agreement between the European Commission and the automotive industry to cut new car CO2 emissions by 25% between 1995 and 2009 is probably the most important EU initiative to curb carbon emissions as it addresses the road transport sector, whose growth may cancel out all other attempts to meet the EU’s Kyoto commitment. The paper evaluates progress in automobile fuel economy and CO2 emissions observed since 1995, examines the issue within the international context and attempts to assess whether further improvements are possible after 2010 in Europe. Based on data available up to mid-2005 it seems that, in the absence of strong technical progress and remarkable changes in consumer behavior until 2009, the industry’s commitment can only be met with some years’ delay. Moreover, it is most likely that technical progress will not persist in the future unless a policy mix of regulations and economic instruments is implemented.

Professor Lord Hunt, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to open this important scientific meeting on the impacts of climate change on urban areas. As you know, the overwhelming majority of scientific opinion supports the view that human activities are changing the Earth's climate. There really

Biomass co-firing with lignite represents an attractive solution for operating lignite-fired thermalpower plants (TPP) with the dual advantage of using local renewable resources and simultaneously reducingemissions. The subject of this study is technical and environmental investigation of the feasibility of the cofiring of Soma lignite with some dried agricultural residues in the Soma thermal power plant from the exergy analysis perspective, using THERMOFLEX simulation software. The use of biomass cofiring with poorquality coal could allow Turkey to comply with Kyoto commitments while benefiting from using indigenousfuel resources and reducing biomass waste disposal problems. Two technologies are considered; (1) direct cofiring, in which biomass is mixed with lignite in the same mill and fed into the boiler furnace and (2) parallel cofiring method, in which biomass is fired in a separate circulating fluidized bed boiler and produced steam is supplemented into the steam network of the power plant. The investigations reveal that both direct and parallel co-firing of the biomass could result in a significant decrease in fuel consumption, emissions and exergy destruction and a slight increase in the exergy efficiency of the Soma TPP. Olive waste, in particular, has a positive effect on general performance and emissions of the TPP, with fuel consumption, CO2, SO2 and dust emissions, in direct co-firing dropping by approximately 20, 4, 19 and 18 percent, respectively, and in parallel co-firing by 26, 3, 20 and 25 percent, respectively.

In this paper we discuss the global negotiations now underway and aimed at achieving new climate change mitigation and other arrangements after 2012 (the end of the Kyoto commitment period). These were initiated in Bali in December 2007 and are scheduled to conclude by the end of 2009 in Copenhagen. As such, this negotiation is effectively the second round in ongoing global negotiations on climate change and further rounds will almost certainly follow. We highlight both the vast scope and vagueness of the negotiating mandate, the many outstanding major issues to be accommodated between negotiating parties, the lack of a mechanism to force collective decision making in the negotiation, and their short time frame. The likely lack of compliance with prior Kyoto commitments by several OECD countries (some to a major degree), the effective absence in Kyoto of compliance/enforcement mechanisms, and growing linkage to non-climate change areas (principally trade) all further complicate the task of bringing the negotiation to conclusion. The major clearage we see that needs to be bridged in the negotiations is between OECD countries on the one hand, and lower wage, large population, rapidly growing countries (China, India, Russia, Brazil) on the other.

Despite the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, the US decision not to comply with its Kyoto commitments seems to drastically undermine the effectiveness of the Protocol in controlling GHG emissions. Therefore, it is important to explore whether there are economic incentives that might help the US to modify its current decision and move to a more environmentally effective climate policy. For example, can an increased participation of developing countries induce the US to effectively participate in the effort to reduce GHG emissions? Is a single emission trading market the appropriate policy framework to increase the signatories of the Kyoto Protocol? This paper addresses the above questions by analysing whether the participation of China in the cooperative effort to control GHG emissions can provide adequate incentives for the US to re-join the Kyoto process and eventually ratify the Kyoto Protocol. This paper analyses three different climate regimes in which China could be involved and assesses the economic incentives for the major world countries and regions to participate in these three regimes. The main conclusion is that the participation of the US in a climate regime is not likely, at least in the short run. The US is more likely to adopt unilateral policies than to join the present Kyoto coalition (even when it includes China). However, a two bloc regime would become the most preferred option if both China and the US, for some political or environmental reasons, decide to cooperate on GHG emission control. If the US decides to cooperate, the climate regime that provides the highest economic incentives to the cooperating countries is the one in which China and the US cooperate bilaterally, with the Annex B−US countries remaining within the Kyoto framework.

This paper presents the outcome and the lessons learned from the first round of the Energy+ procurement project of refrigerator-freezers carried out under the SAVE program. The aim of the project, that was preceded by a thorough market study, is to give procurement as a market transformation tool a trial run on a pan European level. According to the study this instrument could be a means to achieve market transformation on highly international markets with fairly standardised products where national initiatives would not be enough, and could constitute an opportunity for the European Union Countries to work together to fulfil their Kyoto commitments

The Denitrification-Decompostion (DNDC) model was used to estimate the impact of change in management practices on N2O emissions in seven major soil regions in Canada, for the period 1970 to 2029. Conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland would result in the greatest reduction in N2O emissions, particularly in eastern Canada wherethe model estimated about 60% less N2O emissions for thisconversion. About 33% less N2O emissions were predicted for a changefrom conventional tillage to no-tillage in western Canada, however, a slight increase in N2O emissions was predicted for eastern Canada. GreaterN2O emissions in eastern Canada associated with the adoption of no-tillage were attributed to higher soil moisture causing denitrification, whereas the lower emissions in western Canada were attributed to less decomposition of soil organic matter in no-till versus conventional tilled soil. Elimination of summer fallow in a crop rotation resulted in a 9% decrease in N2O emissions, with substantial emissions occurringduring the wetter fallow years when N had accumulated. Increasing N-fertilizer application rates by 50% increased average emissions by 32%,while a 50% decrease of N-fertilizer application decreased emissions by16%. In general, a small increase in N2O emissions was predicted when N-fertilizer was applied in the fall rather than in the spring. Previous research on CO2 emissions with the CENTURY model (Smith et al.,2001) allowed the quantification of the combined change in N2O andCO2 emissions in CO2 equivalents for a wide range of managementpractices in the seven major soil regions in Canada. The management practices that have the greatest potential to reduce the combined N2O andCO2 emissions are conversion from conventional tillage to permanent grassland, reduced tillage, and reduction of summer fallow. The estimated net greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction when changing from cultivated land to permanent grassland ranged from 0.97 (Brown Chernozem) to 4.24 MgCO2 equiv. ha−1 y−1 (BlackChernozem) for the seven soil regions examined. When changing from conventional tillage to no-tillage the net GHG emission reduction ranged from 0.33 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO2 equiv. ha−1 y−1 (Dark GrayLuvisol). Elimination of fallow in the crop rotation lead to an estimated net GHG emission reduction of 0.43 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO2 equiv.ha−1 y−1 (Dark Brown Chernozem). The addition of 50% more or 50% less N-fertilizer both resulted in slight increases in combined CO2 and N2O emissions. There was a tradeoff in GHG flux with greaterN2O emissions and a comparable increase in carbon storage when 50% more N-fertilizer was added. The results from this work indicate that conversion of cultivated land to grassland, the conversion from conventional tillage to no-tillage, and the reduction of summerallow in crop rotations could substantially increase C sequestration and decrease net GHG emissions. Based on these results a simple scaling-up scenario to derive the possible impacts on Canada's Kyoto commitment has been calculated.

In January 2008, the EU announced an ambitious new plan to unilaterally reduce carbon emissions beyond its Kyoto commitments. An exploration of EU climate-change policy reveals a desire to minimise risk in the face of uncertainty about the precise impact of global warming. In taking a global leadership role, the EU seeks to enhance its prestige, to demonstrate to the United States that emission reductions can be done relatively cheaply, and to develop more affordable technologies that can be passed on to developing nations. EU policy is rooted in the same longing for security that led to creation of the social welfare state across Western Europe following the Second World War while reflecting a growing willingness to project European social-democratic proclivities onto the world stage.

In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on CO2emissions using a sample of 170 countries over the period 1992–2009. We propose the use of a difference-in-differences estimator with matching to address the endogeneity of the policy variable, namely Kyoto commitments. Countries are matched according to observable characteristics to create a suitable counterfactual. We correspondingly estimate a panel data model for the whole sample and the matched sample and compare the results to those obtained using an instrumental variable approach. The main results indicate that Kyoto Protocol commitments have a measurable reducing effect on CO2emissions, indicating that a treaty often deemed a ‘failure’ may in fact be producing some non-negligible effects for those who signed it.