Abstract
For several years, the Zambian economy relied on the mining sector, which has been affected by fluctuations in commodity prices. The new century enhanced the calls for economic diversification, with the agricultural, manufacturing, and services sectors amongst those pronounced. This article focused on the role of agriculture in supporting the economy, particularly, the effect of agriculture on economic growth. The data analyzed was reviewed for the period 1983–2017. The ARDL Bounds Test was applied in order to meet the said objectives. The ECM results suggest that agriculture, manufacturing, services, and mining converge to an equilibrium and affect economic growth at the speed of adjustment of 90.6%, with the effect from agriculture, mining, and services being significant. The impact of agriculture on economic growth was significant in both the short-run and long-run, with coefficient unit effects of 0.428 and 0.342, respectively. The effects are strong because more than two-thirds of the rural population rely on farming, and agriculture has stood as a catalyst for food security. For the effect of agriculture to be much more profound, farmers must be supported with adequate infrastructure, accessibility to markets, farming inputs, better irrigation techniques, which would address the problem of reliance on rain, all of which were inconsistent in the last decade. Additionally, governments must ensure the institutionalization of food processing industries which add more value to the national income.
Highlights
Ending poverty, de-escalating malnourishment, and improving the living standards of the people are amongst the greatest 21st century developmental challenges experienced in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region
In seeking to answer how agriculture can lead to the country’s economic sustainability, the article seeks to focus on determining the relationship between agriculture and economic growth, determining whether agriculture does contribute to economic growth and examining to what extent agriculture contributes to economic growth, and making recommendations on how Zambia can apply agricultural policy to ensure food security, accelerate economic growth, and reaffirm its place as the breadbasket of Southern Africa and the continent at large
Well-structured agricultural and development policies will help the country in attaining some notable Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as the complete eradication of poverty and hunger, improved health and wellbeing, including decent work and economic growth
Summary
De-escalating malnourishment, and improving the living standards of the people are amongst the greatest 21st century developmental challenges experienced in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region. Auty [22] noted that the Zambian economy previously depended on the mining sector, which was not properly managed and hugely affected by economic shocks, such as declining copper prices, as occurred in the mid-1970s This re-emphasizes the need to have a diversified economy, with the agricultural sector as a potential alternative major contributor to GDP growth. Besides the problem of over-reliance on mining, mentioned earlier, the other challenges Zambia faces include the decline of the manufacturing sector, limitations in property rights, increased corruption, and inadequate infrastructure All these limitations can be addressed by directing attention towards agriculture and helping the nation reaffirm its place as Southern Africa’s breadbasket and complimenting other sectors such as the service industry. The following null and alternative hypotheses will be empirically tested: Hypothesis (H0): Agriculture does not have a significant impact on economic growth
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