Agriculture and climate change: The socially optimal production, land use, and GHG emissions

We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of private and social optimum in dairy production when society accounts for greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient runoff to waterways. The private farmer maximizes revenue from milk production by choosing herd size, diet, fertilization and land allocation between crops. Changes in the diet impact milk production, manure composition, and land allocation between crops. A critical radius emerges for the choices of crops and fertilizer type (mineral and manure); it is independent of the chosen crops in the private optimum but not in the social optimum. Fertilizer intensity is higher in the manure fertilized fields than in the fields where mineral fertilizer is used. Moreover, manure application rate decreases in distance to the farm centre. In contrast to what has generally been thought, the socially optimal fertilizer application follows the same spatial pattern than the private fertilization but at a lower level of intensity. A simulation model applied to the Finnish agriculture is used to further examine the features of the model. Acknowledgement : The work presented is part of the BONUS GO4BALTIC project: . The BONUS GO4BALTIC project is supported by BONUS (Art 185), funded jointly by the EU and national funding institutions in Denmark (the Innovation Fund), Estonia (Estonian Research Council ETAG ), Finland (Academy of Finland), Poland (NCBR) and Sweden (FORMAS). The work has also received funding from Stockholm University Baltic Sea Center project Baltic Eye.

Major US electric utility climate pledges have the potential to collectively reduce power sector emissions by one-third

BackgroundCultivated peatlands are widespread in temperate and boreal climate zones. For example, in Europe about 15% of the pristine peatland area have been lost through drainage for agricultural use. When drained, these organic soils are a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To reach climate goals, the agricultural sector must reduce its GHG emissions, and one measure that has been discussed is changing land use from cropland to ley production or perennial green fallow. This management change leads to lower reported emissions, at least when using the IPCC default emission factors (EF) for croplands and grasslands on organic soils (IPCC 2014). However, there was a limited background dataset available for developing the EFs, and other variables than management affect the comparison of the land use options when the data originates from varying sites and years. Thus, the implications for future policies remain uncertain. This protocol describes the methodology to conduct a systematic review to answer the question of whether ley production or perennial green fallow can be suggested as a valid alternative to annual cropping to decrease GHG emissions on organic soils in temperate and boreal climate.MethodsPublications will be searched in different databases and bibliographies of relevant review articles. The comprehensiveness of the search will be tested through a list of benchmark articles identified by the protocol development team. The screening will be performed at title and abstract level and at full text level, including repeatability tests. Eligible populations are organic agricultural soils in temperate and boreal climate regions. Interventions are grasslands without tillage for at least 3 years, and comparators are annual cropping systems within the same study as the intervention. The outcome must be gas fluxes of either carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), or methane (CH4), or any combination of these gases. Studies will go through critical appraisal, checking for internal and external validity, and finally data extraction. If possible, a meta-analysis about the climate impact of perennial green fallow compared to annual cropping on organic soils will be performed.

Estimating the CAP greening effect by machine learning techniques: A big data ex post analysis

Clear-felling, a predominant method for forest regeneration in areas with wet soils, has profound implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This technique, by removing the forest cover, exposes the soil to increased sunlight, which can raise soil temperatures and enhance decomposition rates. Consequently, this process can significantly boost the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The absence of canopy cover also impacts soil moisture due to the decrease in plant transpiration, potentially leading to conditions that promote anaerobic processes in wet soils, thereby increasing methane (CH4) emissions. We monitored soil GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O) emissions in clear-felling sites before and after the harvesting. The study findings reveal a notable increase in CO2 emissions following the harvest, with an average rise of 226 mg CO2·m-2·h-1, representing a 120% increase. The CO2 emissions from mineral and organic soils did not significantly differ. While clear-felling had minimal impact on CH4 emissions from mineral soils, emissions from organic soils saw approximately a sixfold increase. Meanwhile, N2O emissions remained largely unchanged in both soil types post-clear-felling. When converted to CO2 equivalents, the emission results reveal a significant elevation in GHG emissions post-clear-felling, particularly from organic soils which witnessed a near threefold increase, whereas emissions from mineral soils roughly doubled. The study results highlight the implications of even-aged forest management strategies on wet soil GHG emissions.

Taking Stock of Strategies on Climate Change and the Way Forward: A Strategic Climate Change Framework for Australia

Globally, annual emissions from managed organic soils accounts for up to 5% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Climate-wise management and restoration of degraded organic soils could reduce GHG emissions quickly and at relatively low costs. The European Union (EU) Member States that have large areas of organic soils with high GHG emissions are Sweden, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Poland, Netherlands, and the Baltic countries. To meet the climate targets and objectives of the Paris Agreement the land-use sector is indispensable and mitigation policies targeting organic soils will be needed. The international regulatory framework is broad and quite unspecific. In contrast, the European Union has initiated binding regulation for the land-use sector through the EU Climate Law, the EU LULUCF regulation, and the proposed EU Nature Restoration Law. However, even this regulatory approach is not on track to deliver on its binding ambitions, indicating the need for more effective implementation measures also on organic soils in the EU and its member states. Furthermore, we argue that appropriate policy selection should consider current knowledge regarding the climate impacts of management options of organic soils. Lastly, we need more studies on GHG emissions, and standardized methods for GHG inventories, to resolve uncertainties surrounding the impacts of management to GHG emissions. Successful policy implementation requires more efforts but also improved scientific justification through continuous consideration of climate policy integrity and strengthening of the reliability of GHG inventories.

The European Union (EU) has proposed legislative revisions to achieve climate neutrality in EU by 2050. The Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation, adopted in 2018, is being revised to ensure that accounted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from LULUCF are balanced by equivalent accounted removals of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. This study focuses on the impact of targeted tree introduction in agricultural land in Latvia, specifically afforestation of drained organic soil and implementation of agroforestry systems (riparian buffer strips), on national GHG reduction targets for the LULUCF sector. The potential contributions of selected measures were evaluated using evaluation methods including GHG emissions factors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines and recent scientific studies. The study differentiated between different land use categories by GHG emissions from soil and CO2 removals in living biomass, dead wood, litter, mineral soil, and organic soil. Basic scenarios were compared with additional scenarios that included afforestation of drained organic soils and implementation of agroforestry systems. The study analysed the possibilities of achieving LULUCF sector goals for 2030, 2035, and 2050 with the selected scenarios. According to the basic scenarios, the LULUCF sector has been a continuous source of GHG emissions since 2019, partly compensated by forest management by 2040, but after 2040 forest management becomes a source of GHG emissions as well. The study shows that afforestation of organic soils currently used for agricultural production can reduce GHG emissions and ensure the achievement of national LULUCF targets for 2021-2025, with a significant decrease in GHG emissions by 3.9 million t CO2 eq. during the 2021-2025 period if compared to the basic scenario. However, the study finds that national target of net GHG removals is not achieved for 2026-2030 according to both basic and afforestation scenarios if no additional measures, e.g., establishment of the shelter belts, are implemented.

How do sand addition, soil moisture and nutrient status influence greenhouse gas fluxes from drained organic soils?

The paper analyses the current ecological consequences of agricultural growth in Russia’s main regions (oblast level) during 2011–2019. Our main hypothesis was that local environ­mental risks, like waste concentration, would be closely related to global climate risks such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production of crops, meat, milk, eggs, and from land use change (LUC) activities leading to a larger carbon footprint. We first analyze official data for agricultural waste and find that 30% of it is concentrated in just two regions (Belgorod and Kursk), while they produce only 10% of agricultural value of Russia. Next, we find that manure nutrients have a high concentration in regions where the livestock production is not balanced with appropriate nutrient use on croplands (Dagestan, Astrakhan, Leningrad, and Pskov regions) which might lead to the pollution of soils and local waters. Next, we test the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model to evaluate proper agricultural protein production quantities in Russian regions and respective GHG emissions from crop, livestock and land use change activities. We find that 21% of the GHG emission in 2019 came from the conversion of former abandoned agricultural land into cropland (starting from 2011). While some regions such as Krasnodar, Rostov, and Stavropol increase productivity with low carbon footprint, others, like Amur and Bryansk, increase production by cropland expansion without respective productivity growth which leads to higher carbon footprint. Our results for livestock operations show that the main hypothesis did not hold up because regions which increase meat production, like Belgorod, Kursk, Pskov, and Leningrad, have a lower carbon footprint due to the production of pork meat and poultry which have lower GHG emissions due to specific digestion. On the other hand, these regions experience a higher environmental footprint due to the large concentration of waste which could be harmful for local eco­systems. Finally, we use the model to project possible future development up to 2030. Our results show the possible growth of crop and livestock products in most of the regions driven by external demand for food. The extensive scenario shows additional GHG emissions from cropland expansion, while the intensive scenario reveals a larger growth rate accompanied by productivity growth and lower carbon footprint, which is essential in harmonizing the current agricultural and climate policy of Russia.

Approximately 8.6% of Swedish agricultural soils are classified as organic soils (Berglund et al. 2010). In the early 19th century, the Swedish government drained peatlands to make land suitable for agricultural production (Berglund 2008). When drained, organic soils are a significant source of CO2 because of the breakdown of organic materials (Ballantyne et al. 2014). In order to reach climate national and international climate goals, the agricultural sector has the important task of reducing its climate impact and thus greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For this purpose, the European Union and some Nordic countries see potential in changing land use on organic soils to ley production or perennial green fallow as an alternative to rewetting peatlands. However, there is lacking scientific consensus about the effectiveness of reducing GHG emissions using these interventions. In many studies, different sites or years are compared, which limits the comparability between land uses because of the many variables that influence the outcome (Kasimir-Klemedtsson et al. 1997; Maljanen et al. 2001; Lohila et al. 2004; Beetz et al. 2013), and thus the conclusions that can be taken for future policies. This systematic review aims to answer the question of which land use(s) can be suggested as a valid alternative for decreased GHG emissions on organic soils in temperate and boreal climates. The review will be conducted by establishing a detailed review protocol, following the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence (CEE) guidelines (Pullin et al. 2022), including a methodology for literature search, eligibility screening, data extraction, and critical appraisal. After implementation of the protocol, and if enough valid data can be found, data synthesis, interpretation and a scientific publication about the outcomes will follow. Sources: Beetz, S., Liebersbach, H., Glatzel, S., Jurasinski, G., Buczko, U., & Höper, H. (2013). Effects of land use intensity on the full greenhouse gas balance in an Atlantic peat bog. Biogeosciences, 10(2), 1067–1082. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1067-2013Berglund, K. (2008). Torvmarken, en resurs i jordbruket igår, idag och även i morgon. In Svensk mosskultur - Odling, torvanvändning och landskapets förändring. (Vol. 41, pp. 483–498). Runefelt, Leif.Berglund, Ö., & Berglund, K. (2010). Distribution and cultivation intensity of agricultural peat and gyttja soils in Sweden and estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from cultivated peat soils. Geoderma, 154(3), 173–180. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2008.11.035Andrew S Pullin, Geoff K Frampton, Barbara Livoreil, & Gillian Petrokofsky. (2022). Guidelines and Standards for Evidence Synthesis in Environmental Management. Guidelines and Standards for Evidence synthesis in Environmental Management. Version 5.1. https://environmentalevidence.org/information-for-authors/ [5-01-23]Kasimir-Klemedtsson, Å., Klemedtsson, L., Berglund, K., Martikainen, P., Silvola, J., & Oenema, O. (1997). Greenhouse gas emissions from farmed organic soils: a review. Soil Use and Management, 13(s4), 245–250. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-2743.1997.tb00595.xLohila, A., Aurela, M., Tuovinen, J.-P., & Laurila, T. (2004). Annual CO2 exchange of a peat field growing spring barley or perennial forage grass. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 109(D18). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004715Maljanen, M., Martikainen, P. J., Walden, J., & Silvola, J. (2001). CO2 exchange in an organic field growing barley or grass in eastern Finland. Global Change Biology, 7(6), 679–692. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2001.00437.x

Drained organic soils have high rates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a problem that can only be mitigated by re-wetting. In agricultural regions, the suitability of re-wetting as a mitigation option depends on the extent and use of organic soils, economic conditions, and the availability of other land to ensure continued agricultural production. Here we analyse the conditions for GHG savings from farmed organic soils for Switzerland, a densely populated country where scarce agricultural land is protected by regional quota systems and where there is a minimum self-sufficiency target for food production. We present a new estimate of the extent of organic soils (32,702 ha). Agriculture dominates the use (61 %) and GHG emissions (89 %) of these soils, and their GHG emissions amount to 25 % of the national 2050 emission reduction goal for agriculture. At national level, only 1.2 % of agriculture (by area) takes place on organic soils, suggesting that losses in agricultural production associated with re-wetting of these soils may be manageable. In some regions, however, organic soils are very important for agriculture, and alternative means to reduce GHG emissions need to be sought for these regions. We explore future paths for such regions, considering economic viability and the availability of land.

Agricultural waste can have a catastrophic impact on climate change, as it contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if not managed sustainably. Swine-digestate-manure-derived biochar may be one sustainable way to manage waste and tackle GHG emissions in temperate climatic conditions. The purpose of this study was to ascertain how such biochar could be used to reduce soil GHG emissions. Spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) and pea crops in 2020 and 2021, respectively, were treated with 25 t ha−1 of swine-digestate-manure-derived biochar (B1) and 120 kg ha−1 (N1) and 160 kg ha−1 (N2) of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer (ammonium nitrate). Biochar with or without nitrogen fertilizer substantially lowered GHG emissions compared to the control treatment (without any treatment) or treatments without biochar application. Carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) emissions were directly measured using static chamber technology. Cumulative emissions and global warming potential (GWP) followed the same trend and were significantly lowered in biochar-treated soils. The influences of soil and environmental parameters on GHG emissions were, therefore, investigated. A positive correlation was found between both moisture and temperature and GHG emissions. Thus, biochar made from swine digestate manure may be an effective organic amendment to reduce GHG emissions and address climate change challenges.

This study compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 under current policies and those under 2030 mitigation targets for nine key non-G20 countries, that collectively account for about 5 % of global total emissions today. These include the four largest non-G20 fossil CO2 emitting Parties to the UN climate convention pre- Paris Agreement (Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine) and one of the largest land-use GHG emitters in the world (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Other countries assessed include major economies in their respective regions (Chile, Colombia, Morocco and the Philippines). In addition to economy-wide GHG emissions projections, we also assessed the projected GHG emissions peak year and the progression of per capita GHG emissions up to 2030. Our GHG emissions projections are also compared with previous studies.On economy-wide GHG emissions, Colombia, Iran, Morocco, and Ukraine were projected to likely meet or significantly overachieve their unconditional 2030 targets with existing policies, while DRC and Thailand would come very close to their targets. Kazakhstan and the Philippines would need to strengthen their action to meet their targets, while Chile recently raised its 2030 target ambition. Only Colombia and Ukraine are projected to have peaked their emissions by 2030. Per capita GHG emissions excluding land-use under current policies were projected to increase in all countries from 2010 levels by 8 % to over 40 % depending on the country. While the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on 2030 emissions is highly uncertain, our assessment on the target achievement would not change for most countries when the emission reductions estimated for 2020 in the literature were assumed to remain in 2030.The findings of this study highlight the importance of enhanced and frequent progress-tracking of climate action of major emitters outside G20, as is currently done for G20 members, to ensure that the global collective progress will become aligned with the pathways toward Paris climate goals.

Climate change is one of the greatest environmental, social and economic challenges of our days and warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions caused by human activities are the most significant driver of the observed climate changes since the mid- 20th century. Managed nutrient rich organic soils are one of the largest key sources of GHG emissions in Boreal and Temperate cool and Moist (TCM) climate regions in Europe. In these regions managed organic soils usually are drained forests and fens or mires that when efficiently drained can increase GHG emissions. The total area of managed organic soils in EU is 34.5 mill. ha (7% of the EU area). Organic soils can have high GHG emission as well as carbon storage potential depending on chosen management strategies. Based on the research and results obtained within the framework of the LIFE program project “Demonstration of climate change mitigation potential of nutrient rich organic soils in Baltic States and Finland” (LIFE OrgBalt), the authors have developed a functional land management model – a tool for sustainable and climate friendly management of nutrient rich organic soils. The model is designed to allow the user to assess the performance of organic soils depending on the planned land use type (scenario), based on the land use performance criteria: financial return, economic return, financial deficit and the optimal amount of public funding, reduction of GHG emissions and ecosystem services assessment. Based on the findings and using the developed model, it is possible to implement deliberative management decisions of managed nutrient rich organic soils, to evaluate potential management costs, plan the expected financial return, assess the benefits of climate mitigation and take into account nature values.