Abstract
Abstract This paper explores the agricultural groundwater management system of Mogwadi (Dendron), Limpopo, South Africa – an area associated with intensive use of hard rock aquifers for irrigation – and the potential contribution of seasonal forecasts. These relatively shallow aquifers are often perceived as ‘self-regulating’, yet climate variability and infrequent recharge episodes raise the question of whether seasonal forecasting could contribute to more sustainable groundwater use. Hydro-meteorological observations, interviews and repeat focus groups with commercial farmers were used to examine this question for the 2014–15 rainfall season, with follow-up interviews during the 2015–16 El Niño season. Two long-term borehole series showed effects of episodic recharge events and management interventions. Comparison of formal and informal management practices highlighted important contrasts: a perceived lack of formal coordination within governing bodies, contrary to high levels of informal coordination between farmers despite a persistent ‘tragedy of the commons’ problem. Seasonal forecast use was limited due to lack of awareness and understanding of their relevance, low credibility and trust of forecasts, and poor dissemination. Farmers expressed increased interest in such information after the 2015–16 drought, if tailored to their needs. Increased uptake is, however, contingent on complementary groundwater monitoring network improvements and enhanced cooperation between stakeholder groups.
Highlights
South Africa’s groundwater and climate variabilityMuch of southern Africa has a semi-arid rainfall regime (400–650 mm yrÀ1) with high inter-annual variability, presenting challenges for water resources management in the region
In East Africa (Tanzania), highly episodic recharge events have been observed to occur from anomalously intense seasonal rainfall associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole modes of climate variability (Taylor et al )
Interviews and workshops conducted highlighted varied understanding among farmers regarding the relationship between climate variability and groundwater levels, most felt that seasonal climate variability and long-term climate change pose a threat to groundwater resources and play an important role in management
Summary
South Africa’s groundwater and climate variabilityMuch of southern Africa has a semi-arid rainfall regime (400–650 mm yrÀ1) with high inter-annual variability, presenting challenges for water resources management in the region. Regional stream flows are unevenly distributed and display high levels of variability and widespread ephemeral. In East Africa (Tanzania), highly episodic recharge events have been observed to occur from anomalously intense seasonal rainfall associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole modes of climate variability (Taylor et al ).
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
