Abstract
The capacity of US agriculture to increase the output of specific foods to accommodate increased demand is not well documented. This research uses geospatial modeling to examine the capacity of the US agricultural landbase to increase the per capita availability of an example set of nutrient-dense fruits and vegetables. These fruits and vegetables were selected based on nutrient content and an increasing trend of domestic production and consumption. Geographic information system models were parameterized to identify agricultural land areas meeting crop-specific growing requirements for monthly precipitation and temperature; soil depth and type; cropland availability; and proximity to existing production centers. The results of these analyses demonstrate that crop production can be expanded by nearly 144,000 ha within existing national production centers, generating an additional 0.05 cup-equivalents of fruits and vegetables per capita per day, representing a 1.7% increase above current total F&V availability. Expanding the size of national crop production centers can further increase the availability of all F&V by 2.5%–5.4%, which is still less than the recommended amount. Challenges to increasing F&V production in the US include lack of labor availability, barriers to adoption among producers, and threats to crop yields from environmental concerns.
Highlights
American consumers depend almost entirely on imports for some of their favorite foods, like cocoa and coffee [1,2], yet despite the growing importance of international food markets, the US still produces most of the food that the population consumes [1,3]
The goal of this study was to examine the capacity of the US agricultural land base to increase the per capita availability of selected fruit and vegetable (F&V)
The complex and specialized nature of F&V supply chains means that supply chain enterprises co-locate with areas of high agricultural production [23].We recognize that increased cultivation of F&V is most likely to occur near current production centers, so we focused our analysis on these areas
Summary
American consumers depend almost entirely on imports for some of their favorite foods, like cocoa and coffee [1,2], yet despite the growing importance of international food markets, the US still produces most of the food that the population consumes [1,3]. Increased consumer demand for many types of food, perishables, would likely spur increased domestic production of agricultural goods. The capacity of US agriculture to increase the output of specific foods to accommodate increased demand is not well documented. One way that shifts in consumer food demand may occur is if Americans improved their diet quality. Despite routine public health messaging and an ongoing national campaign [6] to increase F&V consumption, there has not been a meaningful improvement in consumption patterns for decades [7]. Americans continue to fall far short of meeting recommended daily F&V consumption amounts [8], modest increases have recently been documented [8,9]
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