Abstract
This paper examines the role of divorce in the nexus between aging and housing demands. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2005 to 2017, we construct a dynamic panel model from the perspective of family to investigate the impact of aging population on housing demands, and the moderating effect of divorce. The study shows that in the sample period, when the moderating effect of divorce is not taken into account, the aging population has a significant inhibitory effect on housing demands, and divorce rates do not increase housing demands in general, but there are instead, differences in the significance levels of the impact of the number of residential transactions and the area in which they occur. After considering the moderating effect, an aging population has an obvious promoting effect on housing demand, but since the divorce rate has a weakening role, the promoting effect will gradually decline. Based on the data from this research, this paper puts forward some suggestions to housing market.
Highlights
Housing is an important part of people’s life
We found that: 1) The regression results of lnHUI,t−1 and lnAreaI,t−1 are significantly positive, indicating whether the number of housing transactions or housing transaction volume is affected by The influence of inertia factors will be affected by the trading volume of the real estate market in the previous year
This paper explored the role of divorce rate in the relationship between aging and housing demand by constructing a dynamic panel model of housing demand and using the system GMM approach
Summary
Housing is an important part of people’s life. The real estate market is the pillar of national economic development, but is important to everyday life. Fan Ziying and Hu Xianmin (2015) explored the panel data of divorce and housing price of prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2012. They found that the increase of housing prices in recent years was positively correlated with the increase of divorce rate. Current research has not yet taken divorce into account in studies on the impact of aging on housing demand, but the increasing divorce rate in China must surely be a cause for alarm. Tang Yun and Liang Ruobing (2016) mainly use Chinese divorce data to examine the impact of the purchase restriction on the marriage market. The results of the analysis and a discussion of these is presented before highlighting the ways this paper has contributed to our understanding in this area
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