After Crimea: Southeast Asia in Russia’s Foreign Policy Narrative

Abstract

The deterioration of Russia’s relations with the West over the Crimea in 2014, and the ongoing crisis in the Ukraine, has led to a new emphasis on the Asia Pacific in the country’s foreign policy. However, it remains a matter of debate whether Russia’s “pivot to the East” represents a fundamental strategic shift or merely a tactical geopolitical manoeuver. In addition, it remains open to question whether Russia’s Asian pivot encompasses countries across the region other than just China which remains at the heart of the Kremlin’s Asia-Pacific policy. This article examines Southeast Asia in current Russian foreign policy and strategic thinking, assesses Russia’s stance towards the region with regard to bilateral ties and multilateral mechanisms and presents an outline of the future development of Russia’s engagement with Southeast Asia. The arguments put forward in the article suggest that Southeast Asia is at least secondary to China within the Asian pivot, while the pivot itself is at least secondary within Russia’s overall foreign policy. The main value of Southeast Asia for Moscow lies in its image-building strategy, with the West as the primary audience. We can therefore assume that there is unlikely to be any groundbreaking developments in Russia’s relations with Southeast Asia for the foreseeable future, although the former will welcome cooperative initiatives from the latter.