Affordability and performance in the industrial property market

Abstract

PurposeThe aim of the present study is to assess the significance of cash flow and profitability survey data in the modelling and forecasting of industrial rents. These data, taken from the British Chambers of Commerce regional surveys of the manufacturing sector, are used as a partial proxy for the affordability of industrial space occupiers. In the absence of direct profitability measures existing studies approximate this information indirectly through output and to some extent employment variables.Design/methodology/approachA cross‐section time‐series framework is deployed to model regional industrial rents using a set of output and employment variables. The empirical model is subsequently augmented with the inclusion of the cash flow and profitability measures.FindingsConsistent with the findings of existing studies, changes in output are a significant influence on the variation of real industrial rents. Supportive evidence for turnover and profitability is found in four regions. In these regions cash flow variables contain additional information and improve the forecast performance of the base model. The empirical findings also extend to obtaining estimates after the BCC survey data are normalised with respect to the overall growth and the input costs manufacturers face in each of the regions.Originality/valueThe present study extends existing work on industrial rents by introducing more direct turnover and profitability series. Greater use of such series in property performance forecasting over short‐term horizons has the potential of resulting in smaller errors.