Advancing backcasting for transformative water management

Structuring the Discussion on the Multiple Threats of Climate Change to Fisheries around Impact Pathways and Adaptation Pathways

Patchwork Earth: navigating pathways to just, thriving, and sustainable futures

Assessing nature-based solutions for transformative change

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: Trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity

Social Dimensions of Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems

Knowledge co-production for Indigenous adaptation pathways: Transform post-colonial articulation complexes to empower local decision-making

Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

The language of transformational change is increasingly applied to climate policy, and particularly in climate finance. Transformational change in this context is used with respect to low-carbon development futures, with the emphasis on mitigation and GHG metrics. But, for many developing countries, climate policy is embedded in a larger context of sustainable development objectives, defined through a national process. Viewed thus, there is a potential tension between mitigation-focused transformation and nationally driven sustainable development. We explore this tension in the context of operationalizing the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which has to deal with the fundamental tension between country ownership and transformational change. In relation to climate finance, acceptance of diverse interpretations of transformation are essential conditions for avoiding risk of transformational change becoming a conditionality on development. We further draw lessons from climate governance and the development aid literature. The article examines how in the case of both the Clean Development Mechanism and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions, there has been limited success in achieving both development objectives and ‘nationally appropriate’ mitigation. The development aid literature points to process-based approaches as a possible alternative, but there are limitations to this approach.Policy relevanceThe concept of transformational change has gained prominence in climate finance. The conundrum facing the GCF is that it seeks to support transformational change in the climate realm, in a context where countries may have competing priorities. Balancing or even transcending this tension is a fundamental design challenge for the GCF. A primary focus on mitigation, particularly if metrics of performance are tied exclusively to GHG reduction, raise concerns about diluting ownership by recipient countries and evokes concerns of conditionality or worse. The literature on development assistance has explored options notably conditions on process and adequate capacity, and suggests that there are no short cuts to building domestic ownership. Actors on climate change need to avoid the risk that transformational change is perceived as, and becomes, an imposed condition. The risk that transformation change, operationalized in the context of unequal power relations, becomes an imposition on development, needs to be avoided.

Robust climate change adaptation pathways in agricultural water management

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

The need “transforming our world” is recognised not only by academics but also in the commitment of national governments to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. While transformation is clearly needed to address the paramount challenges of climate change and sustainable development, there is less clarity on what transformation entails in practice and how it can be shaped in order to both tackle climate change and achieve climate justice. The chapter will outline definitions and framings of transformation and transformative change from a human rights–based perspective and focus on two key aspects: first, it will introduce the debates on broader socio-economic transformation for sustainable development, which is intrinsically linked to climate change mitigation and addressing the causes of climate change. It will explore the justice dimensions of changing production and consumption patterns and outline the eco-social approach to policy and practice that prioritises sustainable and just social and ecological outcomes over profit-making. This section will illustrate transformative eco-social approaches such as the alter-globalisation movement and social and solidarity economy (SSE). Second, the chapter will introduce the debates on transformative adaptation to climate change and illustrate approaches that aim to tackle the impacts of climate change. It will start with an overview of definitions of transformative adaptation and focus on those that integrate justice questions into their approaches. The chapter will close by bringing together the common threads from the different transformative approaches to address climate change, which can inform rights-based decision-making and policy-making for climate justice.

Framing the application of adaptation pathways for rural livelihoods and global change in eastern Indonesian islands

Abstract. Maps are a crucial asset in communicating climate science to a diverse audience, and there is a wealth of software available to analyse and visualise climate information. However, this availability makes it easy to create poor maps as users often lack an underlying cartographic knowledge. Unlike traditional cartography, where many known standards allow maps to be interpreted easily, there is no standard mapping approach used to represent uncertainty (in climate or other information). Consequently, a wide range of techniques have been applied for this purpose, and users may spend unnecessary time trying to understand the mapping approach rather than interpreting the information presented. Furthermore, communicating and visualising uncertainties in climate data and climate change projections, using for example ensemble based approaches, presents additional challenges for mapping that require careful consideration. The aim of this paper is to provide background information and guidance on suitable techniques for mapping climate variables, including uncertainty. We assess a range of existing and novel techniques for mapping variables and uncertainties, comparing "intrinsic" approaches that use colour in much the same way as conventional thematic maps with "extrinsic" approaches that incorporate additional geometry such as points or features. Using cartographic knowledge and lessons learned from mapping in different disciplines we propose the following 6 general mapping guidelines to develop a suitable mapping technique that represents both magnitude and uncertainty in climate data: – use a sensible sequential or diverging colour scheme; – use appropriate colour symbolism if it is applicable; – ensure the map is usable by colour blind people; – use a data classification scheme that does not misrepresent the data; – use a map projection that does not distort the data – attempt to be visually intuitive to understand. Using these guidelines, we suggest an approach to map climate variables with associated uncertainty, that can be easily replicated for a wide range of climate mapping applications. It is proposed this technique would provide a consistent approach suitable for mapping information for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5).

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 54:49-68 (2012) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01085 Winter wheat yields in the UK: uncertainties in climate and management impacts Kyungsuk Cho1,*, Pete Falloon2, Jemma Gornall2, Richard Betts2, Robin Clark2 1Korea Meteorological Administration, 61 Yeoeuidaebang-ro 16-gil, Dongjak-gu, Seoul 156-720, Korea 2Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK *Email: cks0716@korea.kr ABSTRACT: Winter wheat is an important UK cereal, suited to the current climate. However, recent climate projections show changes in temperature and precipitation are likely, potentially affecting UK crop yields. Assessments of future yields contain several sources of uncertainty including those associated with climate and potential adaptation. Here we address these uncertainties using the CERES-Wheat model fed with an ensemble of regional model projections and different sowing dates and fertiliser regimes. In all of the 13 administrative regions in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), increases in temperature accelerated the development rate of wheat, a result that was robust across the ensemble. This generally leads to positive impacts on yield and a northward shift in cultivation, with some decreases in the south. Uncertainties in yield became greater towards 2100, a result of corresponding increases in the uncertainty of climate changes. Sensitivity analysis suggests that CO2 fertilisation could compensate for yield losses due to changes in temperature and precipitation in most regions. Earlier sowings appear to be more beneficial in the future over the UK, whilst later sowings increase the risk of yield losses. In a warmer climate, increasing the amount of fertiliser did not improve yields and in fact increased the risk to productivity. Critically, adjustments to sowing date and fertiliser addition did not mitigate the loss of yield experienced in southern regions, suggesting limited adaptation potential in this case. We propose that regional yield changes may not be critical for wheat production in the UK as a whole, as losses in some regions are more than compensated for by gains in others. KEY WORDS: UKCP09 · SRES A1B · Uncertainty · CERES-Wheat · UK winter wheat · Yield Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Cho K, Falloon P, Gornall J, Betts R, Clark R (2012) Winter wheat yields in the UK: uncertainties in climate and management impacts. Clim Res 54:49-68. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01085 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 54, No. 1. Online publication date: August 03, 2012 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2012 Inter-Research.

ABSTRACTFlood management in urban areas requires innovative and adaptive strategies to address the growing challenges posed by climate change, land use transformations, and socio‐economic developments. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the complex interactions within an urban area using integrated modeling approaches, offering critical insights into potential future challenges. These approaches incorporate climate, land use, hydrological, hydraulic, and damage models, complemented by an adaptation pathways map and recommendations for the most effective strategies, conducted in a flood‐prone urban area. The analysis projects an increase by 2080 of 3.39°C in temperature, 46% in precipitation, and 29% in flood‐related damages. The study underscores the substantial impact of land use changes on flood damages, highlighting the need for integrating land use planning into flood mitigation strategies. A rigorous evaluation identified a combination of measures—including concrete dyke construction, dredging, afforestation, and forest conservation—as effective actions for mitigating flood risks in the region near the Caspian Sea. Forest conservation and afforestation reduce peak flood discharge by 12.2% and 23.1%, respectively, for a 100‐year return period. Economic evaluations were performed for all adaptation pathways to assess their feasibility and cost‐effectiveness. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the study determined that the optimal strategy is the simultaneous implementation of concrete dyke construction, dredging, and forest conservation. Additionally, six adaptation pathways were defined through the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) method to provide a structured roadmap for implementing and adjusting flood management measures over time. These pathways aim to reduce potential future flood damage to negligible levels. Overall, this research highlights the importance of adopting integrated and adaptive strategies to address the multi‐faceted challenges posed by environmental changes, ensuring effective flood management amidst growing deep uncertainties.