Abstract
Cold tolerance and potential distribution of Myllocerus undecimpustulatus undatus Marshall, a polyphagous pest in the United States, were investigated. Adult survivorship after 2 days at 0 °C and − 5 °C averaged 60% and 18%, respectively. Four days of exposure resulted in survivorship of 11% at 0 °C and 4% at − 5 °C, respectively. Summer-collected weevils at − 5 °C through repeated cold exposure of 2 h survived 3 times longer than those subjected to sustained cold period of 10 h. Leaf consumption did not differ among summer-collected weevils at constant 20 °C and repeated cold exposure treatments; weevils under sustained cold exposure consumed less than weevils in repeated cold exposure treatments. Leaf area consumed after cold exposure was 2–4 times greater in winter-collected weevils compared to summer-collected weevils. Leaf consumption by winter-collected weevils decreased as the number of repeated cold exposure periods increased. Locality data from collections in Florida during 2000–2012 were used to produce a correlative model complemented by a mechanistic model from the cold tolerance data to project the potential distribution of M. undecimpustulatus undatus in North America. The models support the hypothesis that M. undecimpustulatus undatus could spread to areas of the southeastern and western United States. The predicted northern distribution followed an isothermal line about 33° North. The niche model defined an area along the western Gulf Coast as unsuitable for the weevil, possibly because the area receives greater annual rainfall than other areas of the southeastern United States and has aquic or udic soil unlike the well-drained sandy soil of peninsular Florida.
Highlights
Upon arrival to a new region, tropical insects face biotic and abiotic factors that might limit their establishment and subsequent colonization (Andrewartha and Birch 1954)
The objectives of this study were to (1) determine survivorship of adult M. undecimpustulatus undatus after cold temperature exposures, (2) measure survival and food consumption by adults after repeated cold exposure, and (3) use cold tolerance data and climate niche modeling to determine the potential distribution of M. undecimpustulatus undatus in North America
Adult M. undecimpustulatus undatus were collected from mature Australian pine, Casuarina equisetifolia L. (Casuarinaceae), in Fort Pierce, FL (27° 290 15.4300 N, 80° 240 33.7900 W) about 1 week prior to each trial
Summary
Upon arrival to a new region, tropical insects face biotic and abiotic factors that might limit their establishment and subsequent colonization (Andrewartha and Birch 1954). Species distribution models apply geographic information systems (GIS), along with computer software packages and climate databases, to predict a species’ spread (Elith and Leathwick 2009; Franklin 2010; Stratman et al 2014). These models have been used to predict the geographical distribution of adventive species, biological control agents, and crop pests into other regions (e.g., Lapointe et al 2007; Tognelli et al 2009; Stratman et al 2014). These concerns include the basis of selecting the predictor variables that limit a species’ distribution, the specific factors of the species’ geographic or environmental range that are estimated, the methods chosen to transform probabilities of suitability onto maps, incomplete data, and the models are hypotheses that should be supported with additional data (Araujo and Peterson 2012; Jarnevich et al 2015)
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