ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on future U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph"><figure id="F1" class="figure"><div class="graphic-wrapper"><img class="article-figure figure" src="2015-01-0974_fig0001.jpg" alt="No Caption Available"/></div></figure></div><div class="htmlview paragraph">ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method to estimate vehicle sales. Specifically, it estimate sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.</div></div>
43
- 10.4271/2013-01-0381
- Apr 8, 2013
138
- 10.4271/2015-01-0973
- Apr 14, 2015
38
- 10.2172/983839
- Jul 1, 2010
- Research Article
12
- 10.3390/en15134722
- Jun 28, 2022
- Energies
Electric Technology Vehicles (ETVs: hybrid, electric, and plug-in hybrid) may reach price parity with incumbent internal combustion vehicles (ICEVs) in the near future. Climate policy for transportation will depend on the degree to which consumers prefer ETVs, and price parity is a key factor. In this study, we explore the interaction between future cost reductions and the economically motivated adoption of ETVs. We construct a model of the U.S. personal vehicle market accounting for heterogenous use and vehicle preferences, in which adoption induces cost reductions that increase future market share. Model results indicate that price parity is reached for most consumers in a number of cost scenarios, but not with constant ICEV costs and modest ETV cost declines. A price parity future suggests that government support could be temporary and phased out after a successful market transition. However, if ETVs continue to be more expensive than ICEVs, then lasting government support is needed. Heterogeneity is essential to understanding the market transition: treating consumers as heterogeneous results in an ETV market share 23% higher than assuming average consumers. Future work can clarify ETV support policy by resolving uncertainty in cost trajectories and modeling dynamic and heterogenous consumer markets.
- Research Article
6
- 10.1088/2634-4505/acc548
- Mar 1, 2023
- Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability
Electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure buildout is a major greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy among governments and municipalities. In the United States, where petroleum-based transportation is the largest single source of GHG emissions, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 will support building a national network of 500 000 EV charging units. While the climate benefits of driving electric are well established, the potential embodied climate impacts of building out the charging infrastructure are relatively unexplored. Furthermore, ‘charging infrastructure’ tends to be conceptualized in terms of plugs and stations, leaving out the electrical and communications systems that will be required to support decarbonized and efficient charging. In this study, we present an EV charging system (EVCS) model that describes the material and operational components required for charging and forecasts the scale-up of these components based on EV market share scenarios out to 2050. We develop a methodology for measuring GHG emissions embodied in the buildout of EVCS and incurred during operation of the EVCS, including vehicle recharging, and we demonstrate this model using a case study of Georgia (USA). We find that cumulative GHG emissions from EVCS buildout and use are negligible, at less than 1% of cumulative emissions from personal light duty vehicle travel (including EV recharging and conventional combustion vehicle driving). If an accelerated EVCS buildout were to stimulate a faster transition of the vehicle fleet, the emissions reduction of electrification will far outweigh emissions embodied in EVCS components, even assuming relatively high carbon inputs prior to decarbonization.
- Research Article
131
- 10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.055
- May 24, 2018
- Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models
- Research Article
- 10.3390/logistics8040117
- Nov 11, 2024
- Logistics
Background: Urban mobility management faces growing challenges that require the analysis and optimization of sustainable solutions. Digital twins (DTs) have emerged as innovative tools for this assessment, but their implementation requires standardized procedures and languages; Methods: As part of a broader methodology for continuous DT validation, this study focuses on the conceptual validation phase, presenting a conceptualization approach through formalization using Specification and Description Language (SDL), agnostic to simulation tools. The conceptual validation was achieved through stakeholder engagement in the Bolzano context, producing 41 SDL diagrams that define both elements common to different urban realities and specific local data collection procedures; Results: The feasibility of implementing this stakeholder-validated conceptualization was demonstrated using Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) for traffic simulation and optimization criteria calculation, and its framework SUMO Activity GenerAtion (SAGA) for generating an Activity-Based Modeling (ABM) mobility demand that can be improved through real sensor data; Conclusions: The SDL approach, through its graphical representation (SDL/GR), enables conceptual validation by enhancing stakeholder communication while defining a framework that, while adapting to the monitoring specificities of different urban realities, maintains a common and rigorous structure, independent of the chosen implementation tools and programming languages.
- Research Article
9
- 10.1016/j.fuel.2022.126183
- Nov 11, 2022
- Fuel
Economic analysis of the benefits to petroleum refiners for low carbon boosted spark ignition biofuels
- Research Article
2
- 10.3389/fenrg.2023.1223874
- Sep 5, 2023
- Frontiers in Energy Research
The growth of the aviation industry coupled with its dependence on energy dense, liquid fuels has brought sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) research to the forefront of the biofuels community. Petroleum refineries will need to decide how to satisfy the projected increase in jet fuel demand with either capital investments to debottleneck current operations or by integrating bio-blendstocks. This work seeks to compare jet production strategies on a risk-adjusted, economic performance basis using Monte-Carlo simulation and refinery optimization models. Additionally, incentive structures aiming to de-risk initial SAF production from the refiner’s perspective are explored. Results show that market sensitive incentives can reduce the financial risks associated with producing SAFs and deliver marginal abatement costs ranging between 136-182 $/Ton-CO2e.
- Research Article
7
- 10.1016/j.trb.2018.07.011
- Aug 27, 2018
- Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
On the implications of using composite vehicles in choice model prediction
- Research Article
8
- 10.1038/s41598-023-44727-x
- Oct 24, 2023
- Scientific Reports
The sustainable development of urban agglomerations plays a pivotal role in national and global efforts to reduce emissions. By focusing on the efficient exchange and optimization of energy consumption across various sectors, the sustainable development of energy systems within urban agglomerations can be achieved. However, the overall impact of the cross-sector energy optimization and complementarity has not been quantitatively analyzed. Here, we focused on the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration in China and proposed an optimization framework for energy, environment, and economy. The framework considered four sectors: transportation sector, power sector, industry sector, and building sector, in order to determine the most sustainable development pathway for the urban agglomeration. The optimization model considers total costs and greenhouse gas emissions reduction as the objectives and utilizes technologies as constraints to optimize the pathway. We found that this optimization strategy resulted in a 53.1 billion tons increase in CO2 emissions reduction in the region. The results of emission reduction varied across sectors, ranging from 4.5 to 22.2 billion tons CO2 equivalent, and across cities, ranging from 7.1 to 4688.1 Mt. The results suggest that the core cities in the urban agglomeration can take on a leadership role. By promoting cross-sector collaboration and implementing energy recycling, the energy efficiency of surrounding cities can be greatly improved, leading to the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration.
- Research Article
2
- 10.1115/1.4051890
- Aug 12, 2021
- Journal of Mechanical Design
Abstract Design optimization studies that model competition with other products in the market often use a small set of products to represent all competitors. We investigate the effect of competitor product representation on profit-maximizing design solutions. Specifically, we study the implications of replacing a large set of disaggregated elemental competitor products with a subset of competitor products or composite products. We derive first-order optimality conditions and show that optimal design (but not price) is independent of competitors when using logit and nested logit models (where preferences are homogeneous). However, this relationship differs in the case of random-coefficients logit models (where preferences are heterogeneous), and we demonstrate that profit-maximizing design solutions using latent-class or mixed-logit models can (but need not always) depend on the representation of competing products. We discuss factors that affect the magnitude of the difference between models with elemental and composite representations of competitors, including preference heterogeneity, cost function curvature, and competitor set specification. We present correction factors that ensure models using subsets or composite representation of competitors have optimal design solutions that match those of disaggregated elemental models. While optimal designs using logit and nested logit models are not affected by ad hoc modeling decisions of competitor representation, the independence of optimal designs from competitors when using these models raises questions of when these models are appropriate to use.
- Research Article
4
- 10.3390/futuretransp2010010
- Feb 11, 2022
- Future Transportation
Transport sector models help provide strategic information for the future development of the transportation sector. Such long-term scenarios are typically challenged by uncertainties. Moreover, certain trends, such as the transition to zero-emission transportation systems and modal shifts, as well as connected, shared and autonomous vehicles, are already apparent today. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of these trends on greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their implementation in transport sector modeling thus far. The investigations are structured into the four main parts of transport sector greenhouse gas emission calculation: activity, modal share, energy intensity and fuel carbon intensity. Our analysis of the related effects reveals their importance to the transportation sector of the future. Current models and scenarios widely consider trends such as the modal shift and electrification. However, other trends such as the sharing economy and automated driving are not commonly regarded in the context of transport sector modeling. The coupling of the different types of models and collaboration among researchers from the different fields is recommended for filling this gap.
- Conference Article
138
- 10.4271/2015-01-0973
- Apr 14, 2015
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery life. The input data for most light-duty vehicles can be automatically imported. Those inputs can be modified to represent variations of the vehicle or powertrain. The vehicle and its components are then simulated through speed-versus-time drive cycles. At each time step, FASTSim accounts for drag, acceleration, ascent, rolling resistance, each powertrain component's efficiency and power limits, and regenerative braking. Conventional vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, all-electric vehicles, compressed natural gas vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles are included. Powertrains with electric-traction drive can optionally be simulated using electric roadway technologies such as dynamic wireless power transfer. FASTSim also has an interface for running large batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim's calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's website (see <a href="http://www.nrel.gov/fastsim" target="_blank">www.nrel.gov/fastsim</a>). <figure id="F1" class="figure"><div class="graphic-wrapper"><img class="article-figure figure" src="2015-01-0973_fig0001.jpg" alt="No Caption Available"/></div></figure></div></div>
- Research Article
2
- 10.4271/2010-01-2306
- Oct 19, 2010
- SAE International Journal of Passenger Cars - Electronic and Electrical Systems
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">In recognizing the potential for large, damaging impacts from climate change, California enacted Executive Order S-03-05, requiring a reduction in statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Given that the transportation light-duty vehicle (LDV) segment accounts for 28% of the state's GHG emissions today, it will be difficult to meet the 2050 goal unless a portfolio of near-zero carbon transportation solutions is pursued. Because it takes decades for a new propulsion system to capture a large fraction of the passenger vehicle market due to vehicle fleet turn-over rates, it is important to accelerate the introduction of these alternatives to ensure markets enter into early commercial volumes (10,000s) between 2015 and 2020.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph"> This report summarizes the results and conclusions of a modeling exercise that simulated GHG emissions from the LDV sector to 2050 in California. Specifically, the analysis addressed two policy questions: (1) what fraction of the on-road fleet in 2050 needs to be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) <sup><span class="xref">1</span></sup> in order for the LDV sector to achieve an 80% GHG reduction, and (2) what annual ZEV sales are necessary between 2015 and 2025 to initiate these fleet volumes? </div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Two scenarios were developed revealing how difficult it will be to achieve this goal. Scenario 1 achieves a 66% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 using aggressive assumptions. This scenario assumes ZEV sales reach a quarter of a million units annually by 2025 and become 100% of new vehicle sales by 2050. Scenario 2 was developed to show what would be required to achieve the full 80% GHG goal. To achieve this, two key parameters were modified with more aggressive and less certain assumptions. A steeper ZEV sales projection was simulated that achieves half a million ZEVs annually by 2025 and becomes 100% of new vehicle sales by 2040. Additionally, the availability of biofuels was increased to 1.7 billion gallons gasoline equivalent (BGGE), where it was limited to 1 BGGE in Scenario 1.</div></div>
- Conference Article
9
- 10.4271/2010-01-2336
- Oct 19, 2010
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The U.S. National Highway Transportation and Safety Agency's (NHTSA) early estimates of Motor Traffic Fatalities in 2009 in the United States [<span class="xref">1</span>] show continuing progress on improving traffic safety on the U.S. roadways. The number of total fatalities and the fatality rate per 100 Million Vehicle Miles (MVM), both show continuing declines. In the 10 year period from 1999 through 2009, the total fatalities have dropped from 41,611 to 33,963 and the fatality rate has dropped from 1.5 fatalities per 100MVM to 1.16 fatalities per 100MVM, a compound annual drop of 2.01% and 2.54% respectively.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph"/><div class="htmlview paragraph">The large number of traffic fatalities, and the slowing down of the fatality rate decline, compared to the decade before, continues to remain a cause of concern for regulators. The new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards requiring vehicle manufacturer to meet a fleet wide fuel economy of 35.5 mpg by 2016, has made it even more challenging to maintain the declining rate of fatalities per 100MVM. Automakers' pursuit of vehicle down-sizing and light-weighting strategies works counter to improving safety, as smaller and lighter vehicles feature lower degree of crashworthiness compared to larger and heavier vehicles (greater track width and wheelbase both have positive impact on vehicle stability and safety).</div><div class="htmlview paragraph"/><div class="htmlview paragraph">In Europe, the European Transport Safety Council (ETSC) estimates [<span class="xref">2</span>] show that 39,000 people lost their lives in road collisions in 2008 across Europe; 15,400 less than in 2001 but still far from the 27,000 deaths limit which the European Union (EU) set for itself in its 2010 Road Safety Target. The average annual progress since 2001 has been 4.4% instead of the 7.2% needed, which could delay the EU in reaching the 2010 target until 2017. In the EU 79 people are killed per million inhabitants in 2008 compared to 113 in 2001. Disparity in road death rates across Europe has decreased since 2001, and in 2008 there was no longer any EU country with more than 150 road deaths per million inhabitants.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph"/><div class="htmlview paragraph">The development of passive safety systems has reached near saturation point and now offers limited potential to reduce fatalities. To reduce fatality rates even further, the focus has shifted to active safety systems and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). The recent spate of safety recalls involving electronic malfunctioning is likely to lower consumer confidence in advance safety systems in the short-term and impede the adoption of ADAS systems, as consumers are likely to be less willing to pay extra for ADAS systems.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph"/><div class="htmlview paragraph">Even as vehicle makers are finding it hard to meet the stricter and contradictory regulations for safety and fuel efficiency; competitive pressures are forcing them to introduce advanced safety systems to achieve highest safety ratings on their vehicles and to differentiate their products. Such systems include Blind Spot Detection (BSD), Lane Departure Warning (LDW), Adaptive Front Lighting (AFL), Night Vision Systems (NVS), Driver Drowsiness Warning (DDW) and Occupant Monitoring systems.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">In today's market environment, where demand is weak and margins tight, it is critical for vehicle manufacturers to offer consumers vehicles with features and functions they value most and avoid costly development and consumer dissatisfaction with implementations.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph"/><div class="htmlview paragraph">In this paper, Frost &amp; Sullivan analyzes consumer attitudes towards safety and their preferences and willingness to pay for safety features. The analysis is discussed under the following categories. <ol class="list nostyle"><li class="list-item"><span class="li-label">1</span><div class="htmlview paragraph">Consumer attitude and concerns for safety</div></li><li class="list-item"><span class="li-label">2</span><div class="htmlview paragraph">Consumer perceptions toward current active and passive safety systems and collision vulnerability</div></li><li class="list-item"><span class="li-label">3</span><div class="htmlview paragraph">Buyer behavior and the influence of safety in the vehicle purchasing process</div></li><li class="list-item"><span class="li-label">4</span><div class="htmlview paragraph">Safety content and system feature preferences</div></li><li class="list-item"><span class="li-label">5</span><div class="htmlview paragraph">Willingness to pay for safety and optimal safety packages</div></li></ol></div><div class="htmlview paragraph"/><div class="htmlview paragraph">The analysis is based on an online survey of a sample of vehicle owners across vehicle segments and demographic attributes. The study was conducted by Frost &amp; Sullivan in 2008, in the U.S., and in Europe in 2009.</div></div>
- Conference Article
2
- 10.4271/2018-36-0035
- Sep 3, 2018
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The worldwide concerns and some countries stricter legislations regarding the CO<sub>2</sub> emission of light duty vehicles are motivating new technologies adoption, such as hybrids and electric battery vehicles, and discussions about what fuel economy data comparison between different countries.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">International discussions were done about the need to reevaluate the existing standardized driving cycles due to large emission and fuel economy differences when compared to the real road values, leading to the creation of a new cycle called WLTC (Worldwide Harmonized Light Duty Vehicle Test Cycle).</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Light duty vehicle fuel economy tests are usually performed on a chassis dynamometer using standard driving cycles under controlled laboratory conditions. Each country regulation defines the standard cycles used for the fuel economy tests. For instance, in USA, it is used five test cycles to obtain the fuel economy (EPA<sub>5cycles</sub>) and in Europe is being used the NEDC (New European Test Cycle), that will be substituted by the WLTC cycle in the next years. In Brazil, it is used the FTP-75 (Federal Test Procedure) for the urban part and the HWFET (Highway Fuel Economy Test) for the highway, both cycles were based on USA legislation.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">This paper will present a bibliography review and fuel economy comparisons of some Internal Combustion Engines (ICE), Hybrid and electric battery vehicles based on different standardized cycles (EPA<sub>5cycles</sub>, NEDC and WLTC). It will also include an explanation of different testing cycles and comparisons of their main characteristics. The aim of this paper is to start the discussion of how the test cycle change can affect different vehicles technologies regarding fuel economy results.</div></div>
- Research Article
143
- 10.4271/2013-01-2421
- Sep 24, 2013
- SAE International Journal of Engines
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">With increasing energy prices and concerns about the environmental impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a growing number of national governments are putting emphasis on improving the energy efficiency of the equipment employed throughout their transportation systems. Within the U.S. transportation sector, energy use in commercial vehicles has been increasing at a faster rate than that of automobiles. A 23% increase in fuel consumption for the U.S. heavy duty truck segment is expected from 2009 to 2020. The heavy duty vehicle oil consumption is projected to grow while light duty vehicle (LDV) fuel consumption will eventually experience a decrease. By 2050, the oil consumption rate by LDVs is anticipated to decrease below 2009 levels due to CAFE standards and biofuel use. In contrast, the heavy duty oil consumption rate is anticipated to double. The increasing trend in oil consumption for heavy trucks is linked to the vitality, security, and growth of the U.S. and global economies.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">An essential part of a stable and vibrant U.S. economy is a productive U.S. trucking industry. Studies have shown that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is strongly correlated to freight transport. As the economy grows, the freight tonnage increases as well as the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Over 80% of all U.S. freight tonnage is transported by diesel power and over 75% is transported by trucks. The improved efficiency of heavy-duty engines and vehicles has been quickly overwhelmed by the increase in annual VMT. This results in heavy-duty vehicles consuming a growing share of the total transportation-related petroleum. Given the vital role that the trucking industry plays in the economy, improving the efficiency of diesel engines is a central focus of this paper.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Trucks are the mainstay for trade, commerce, and economic growth. Sustaining a U.S. trucking industry that is competitive in global markets requires innovation. The truck manufacturing and supporting industries are faced with numerous challenges to reduce oil consumption and greenhouse gases, meet stringent emissions regulations, provide customer value, and improve safety. A key part of the strategy to meet these requirements is to improve the efficiency of the internal combustion engine (ICE) powering the trucks. The performance, low cost, and fuel flexibility render the ICE the leading candidate to power commercial vehicles for many decades.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Historically, diesel engine technologies have taken more than 10 years after first introduced to diffuse throughout the commercial vehicle marketplace. This rate is faster when fuel economy provides a business advantage to the vehicle's owner. Increased efficiency and reduced emissions of diesel engines can be realized through technologies that improve engine design and better integrate systems. Engine manufacturers have a growing need to refine the capability to innovate, design, develop, and validate engine efficiency improvements. Therefore, the primary purpose of this paper is to provide guidelines and tools that allow a systematic approach to engine design and development that focuses on satisfying regulatory requirements, achieving greater fuel efficiency, and improving transportation freight efficiency. The on-highway heavy-duty diesel engine is used to illustrate the processes; however, the general principles may be applied to other diesel and natural gas engine applications, such as off-highway or power generation.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">For the past two decades, engine manufacturers have focused on reducing engine emissions to near zero levels while maintaining or slightly increasing fuel efficiency. With the implementation of the new EPA/NHTSA commercial vehicle GHG regulations in 2011, the need to reduce fuel consumption has been explicitly linked to the ability to manufacture and sell engines. The forward looking technology roadmaps in this paper provide a framework for improving engine efficiency over the next 10 to 15 years. The list of improvements consists of engine components, aftertreatment, and powertrain advancements.</div></div>
- Conference Article
15
- 10.4271/2015-01-1196
- Apr 14, 2015
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Fast charging is attractive to battery electric vehicle (BEV) drivers for its ability to enable long-distance travel and to quickly recharge depleted batteries on short notice. However, such aggressive charging and the sustained vehicle operation that results could lead to excessive battery temperatures and degradation. Properly assessing the consequences of fast charging requires accounting for disparate cycling, heating, and aging of individual cells in large BEV packs when subjected to realistic travel patterns, usage of fast chargers, and climates over long durations (i.e., years). The U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office has supported the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's development of BLAST-V-the Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Tool for Vehicles-to create a tool capable of accounting for all of these factors. We present on the findings of applying this tool to realistic fast charge scenarios. The effects of different travel patterns, climates, battery sizes, battery thermal management systems, and other factors on battery performance and degradation are presented. We find that the impact of realistic fast charging on battery degradation is minimal for most drivers, due to the low frequency of use. However, in the absence of active battery cooling systems, a driver's desired utilization of a BEV and fast charging infrastructure can result in unsafe peak battery temperatures. We find that active battery cooling systems can control peak battery temperatures to safe limits while allowing the desired use of the vehicle.</div></div>
- Research Article
66
- 10.4271/2015-01-1306
- Apr 14, 2015
- SAE International Journal of Materials and Manufacturing
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Battery second use-putting used plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) batteries into secondary service following their automotive tenure-has been proposed as a means to decrease the cost of PEVs while providing low cost energy storage to other fields (e.g., electric utility markets). To understand the value of used automotive batteries, however, we must first answer several key questions related to battery degradation, including: How long will PEV batteries last in automotive service? How healthy will PEV batteries be when they leave automotive service? How long will retired PEV batteries last in second-use service? How well can we best predict the second-use lifetime of a used automotive battery? Under the support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed a methodology and the requisite tools to answer these questions, including the Battery Lifetime Simulation Tool (BLAST). Herein we introduce these methods and tools and demonstrate their application. Under our assumed second use duty cycle of daily peak shaving, we have found that repurposed automotive batteries can last ten years or more in second use service when managed properly. In this role, capacity fade from automotive use has a much larger impact on second use value than resistance growth. Where capacity loss is driven by calendar effects more than cycling effects, average battery temperature during automotive service, which is often driven by climate, is found to be the single factor with the largest effect on remaining value. Installing hardware and software capabilities onboard the vehicle that can both estimate remaining battery capacity from in-situ measurements, as well as track average battery temperature over time, will thereby facilitate the second use of automotive batteries.</div></div>
- Conference Article
1
- 10.4271/2018-01-1100
- Apr 3, 2018
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Light-duty vehicles are responsible for over 16% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States. Human driving behavior has a significant impact on vehicle efficiency, the emission of GHG and primary pollutants, and safety. With environmental health in mind, both academia and industry have the opportunity to develop advanced sensor and complementary control technologies to manage the human role.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">To explore this hypothesis, the research reported herein began with a comprehensive study of demonstration projects and academic publications which test and evaluate modern technologies to mitigate threats associated with safety and efficiency. The research identified the environmental signals to detect, the corresponding sensors to detect these signals, and the sensor technologies to study in greater depth. Of all the sensor technologies, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications technologies emerged as the most promising. A major requirement identified is a planning tool designed to assess advanced vehicle sensor technologies on traffic flow, fuel economy, and emissions.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">In response, a major focus of the research was then directed to (1) developing the Fuel Economy and Traffic of Connected Hybrids (FETCH) planning tool, and (2) evaluating the utility of FETCH for a simple V2V-enabled automatic re-routing control on a custom roadway. The major outcomes of this research work are (1) the FETCH tool, (2) a research plan for utilizing FETCH to explore the variety of scenarios evolving for the advanced control of hybrid vehicles, and (3) an example research result of FETCH.</div></div>
- Conference Article
1
- 10.4271/2024-01-2710
- Apr 9, 2024
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">As GHG and fuel economy regulations of light-duty vehicles have become more stringent, advanced emissions reduction technology has extensively penetrated the US light-duty vehicle fleet. This new technology includes not only advanced conventional engines and transmissions, but also greater adoption of electrified powertrains. In 2022, electrified vehicles – including mild hybrids, strong hybrids, plug-ins, and battery electric vehicles – made up nearly 17% of the US fleet and are on track to further increase their proportion in subsequent years.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has previously used its Advanced Light-Duty Powertrain and Hybrid Analysis (ALPHA) full vehicle simulation tool to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of light-duty vehicles. ALPHA contains a library of benchmarked powertrain components that can be matched to specific vehicles to explore GHG emissions performance. Recently, EPA has updated the ALPHA model with key changes including the addition of new models for electrified vehicle architectures and a robust structure which allows batch processing of large numbers of simulations. This enables large scale characterization of current and future fleets over the EPA city, highway and US06 regulatory drive cycles.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">This paper focuses on how ALPHA can be used to approximate fleetwide GHG emissions using a narrow set of engines, electric motors, transmissions, propulsion batteries, and architectures. Simulations of the 2022 model year light-duty fleet show a good overall correlation between modeled GHG emissions and certification results, with the average difference between ALPHA simulation and certification values under 0.2% when the values are production weighted.</div></div>
- Conference Article
37
- 10.4271/2014-01-1961
- Apr 1, 2014
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">This paper explores the benefits that would be achieved if gasoline marketers produced and offered a higher-octane gasoline to the U.S. consumer market as the standard grade. By raising octane, engine knock constraints are reduced, so that new spark-ignition engines can be designed with higher compression ratios and boost levels. Consequently, engine and vehicle efficiencies are improved thus reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet over time. The main objective of this paper is to quantify the reduction in fuel consumption and GHG emissions that would result for a given increase in octane number if new vehicles designed to use this higher-octane gasoline are deployed.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">GT-Power simulations and a literature review are used to determine the relative brake efficiency gain that is possible as compression ratio is increased. Engine-in-vehicle drive-cycle simulations are then performed in Autonomie to determine an effective, on-the-road vehicle efficiency gain. With the possible efficiency gain determined at an individual vehicle level, a fleet model is then used to calculate the aggregate benefit for the LDV fleet. Our simulations indicate that roughly 69% of all LDVs on the road by 2040 will be of this higher-octane variety that uses premium gasoline (98 or 100 RON). Meanwhile, premium gasoline is projected to account for approximately 80% of the total gasoline demand by 2040. Ultimately by redesigning vehicles to take advantage of premium gasoline, fleet fuel consumption and GHG emissions can be reduced by 4.5-6.0% over the baseline case, where no additional higher-octane vehicles are introduced.</div></div>
- Conference Article
1
- 10.4271/2016-01-0010
- Apr 5, 2016
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Micro hybrid Systems are emerging as a promising solution to reduce the fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in emerging markets, where the strict emission requirements are being enforced gradually. Micro hybrid Systems reduce the fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in a conventional vehicle with 12 V electrical system, by optimizing the electrical energy generation, storage, and distribution, with functions like Intelligent Alternator Control, Engine Stop/Start, and Load Management.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">With the advent of Connected Car Systems, information about the vehicle is seamlessly provided to the customer not just through the Human Machine Interface systems within the vehicle, but to other mobile devices used by the customers. In a vehicle with Micro Hybrid System, as the key feature is fuel efficiency improvement, it becomes essential to provide the information of improvement in fuel efficiency, in addition to the fuel consumption, so that the user appreciates the effectiveness of the system. However, real time mapping of the improvement, with respect to a base vehicle is challenging.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">In this paper, influence of Intelligent Alternator Control system functions, on the fuel economy returned by the vehicle are discussed, before the concept developed for the estimation of improvement in fuel economy. For the estimation of improvement in fuel economy, a novel concept was developed in which the alternator input torque is estimated under the influence of the IAC system, and the engine torque demand is estimated to arrive at an estimate of the total fuel consumption. A virtual base alternator model is implemented for comparing and estimating the improvement in the fuel economy. The concept was validated under controlled conditions and estimations were found to be accurate up to 63%.</div></div>
- Conference Article
1
- 10.4271/2023-01-0269
- Apr 11, 2023
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Increasing concerns due to global warming have led to stringent regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from diesel engines. Specifically, for GHG phase-2 regulation (2027), more than 4% improvement is needed when compared to phase-1 regulation (2017) in the light heavy-duty (LHD) diesel engine category. At the same time, California Air Resources Board (CARB) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have proposed the new Low NOx standards that require up to 90% reduction in tailpipe (TP) NOx emissions in comparison to the current TP NOx standards that were implemented in 2010. In addition, CARB and EPA have proposed new certification requirements – Low Load Cycle (LLC) and revised heavy-duty in-use testing (HDIUT) based on the moving average window (MAW) method that would require rigorous thermal management. Hence, strategies for simultaneous reduction in GHG and TP NOx emissions are required to meet future regulations.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">This paper presents potential pathways to achieve the GHG phase-2 and the ultra-low NOx (ULN) regulations with minimum changes in engine design, while meeting the constraints that need to be considered for engine performance stability, component durability, and vehicle drivability. Experimental evaluations were performed focusing on transient cycles such as heavy-duty Federal Test Procedure (hereafter referred as FTP), LLC, and custom transient cycles for HDIUT assessment. We used a model-year (MY) 2021 production Isuzu diesel engine and an advanced dual-dosing aftertreatment system comprising of a close-coupled SCR (ccSCR), diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), diesel particulate filter (DPF), selective catalytic reduction (SCR), and Ammonia Slip Catalyst (ASC). Conventional thermal management techniques such as multi-injection, intake, and exhaust throttling were implemented to achieve the emissions targets. In addition to the proposed system design, this paper presents following test results from a full-scale system evaluation: <ol class="list nostyle"><li class="list-item"><span class="li-label">1</span><div class="htmlview paragraph">Achieve rapid and sustained turbine-out exhaust temperatures (&gt;200°C) while meeting the engine-out emissions constraints for soot and total hydrocarbon (THC) emissions.</div></li><li class="list-item"><span class="li-label">2</span><div class="htmlview paragraph">A summary of TP NOx, TP N2O and GHG emissions over a composite FTP and LLC.</div></li><li class="list-item"><span class="li-label">3</span><div class="htmlview paragraph">HDIUT assessment results and observations for LLC and custom transient cycles.</div></li><li class="list-item"><span class="li-label">4</span><div class="htmlview paragraph">Robustness evaluation of TP NOx emissions for composite HDT, LLC and custom transient cycles by imposing component variations.</div></li></ol></div></div>
- Conference Article
5
- 10.4271/2014-01-2903
- Oct 13, 2014
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Next-generation vehicles which include Electric Vehicles (EV) and Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) are researched and expected to reduce carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions in the future. In the national new-car sales in 2012 of Japan, the total sales of hybrid vehicles kept 26.5% share. In the field of passenger cars, this share was 29.7%. And, this share rose about four times compared to that of 2008 [<span class="xref">1</span>].</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Also, small delivery hybrid trucks are increased in the commercial vehicle class. Fuel economy of hybrid trucks in the catalog specifications is relatively better than that of the diesel tracks which have no hybrid systems. Nevertheless, hybrid trucks' users report that advantages of fuel economy of hybrid trucks at the real traffic driving conditions are small.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">In this report, in order to research that the actual traveling fuel economy of hybrid truck' users has no advantage compared with the diesel truck' users, the traveling fuel economy of hybrid trucks and diesel trucks was surveyed by using the chassis dynamometer system. Then, the measure to improve the fuel economy of hybrid truck was identified by using the hybrid power-train bench test system.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">(1) Chassis dynamo meter test</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Test vehicles of hybrid truck and diesel truck are suited the new long-term emission regulation. Test vehicles were set 4, 135kg. Fuel economy of each vehicle was investigated by using chassis dynamometer system. Improvement of fuel economy of hybrid truck was compared to diesel truck at JE05 mode, Urban, Rural and Highway. The test result, improvement of fuel economy of this hybrid trucks in the urban was low. And, when average vehicle speed was high, improvement of fuel economy of hybrid truck was increase. This result was equal to the data of hybrid trucks' users. For one thing, driving speed of hybrid trucks' users was low. In other words, this driving pattern was similar to urban mode. So, hybrid trucks could not get regeneration power in this urban mode. Thus, these trucks could not assist engine power by electrical-motor.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">(2) Hybrid power-train bench test</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Control methods of improved fuel economy of hybrid trucks were investigated by using HEV power-train bench test system, which is possible to reproduce virtual HEV in the test room without producing a prototype of HEV. Control methods of improved fuel economy at JE05 urban mode were investigated. As the result, Improvement of fuel economy of this truck, which was operated at the optimal engine operation line, was 29.4% compared to diesel truck. This engine was operated at high efficiency conditions, which is in lower engine speed and higher engine torque. At the same time, electrical-motor of this truck was operated the production power or the regeneration power.</div></div>
- Conference Article
- 10.4271/2024-01-2375
- Apr 9, 2024
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The present study aims to determine the comparative performance evaluation in terms of fuel economy (kmpl) and wide open throttle (WOT) power derived from set of different blends of high octane gasoline fuel(s) i.e., Neat Gasoline (E0), E10 &amp; E20 (With different dosages of additives) in high compression ratio (HCR) motorcycle on chassis dynamometer facility.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">With the Government of India focus on use of alcohol as co-blend of gasoline with the endeavour to save foreign exchange and also to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The commercially available blended fuels, E10 &amp; E20, have high research octane number (RON, 92-100) and as per the available literature high RON fuel have the better anti-knocking tendencies thereby lead to higher fuel economy.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">There are various routes to formulate high octane fuel (refining technologies, additive approach &amp; ethanol blending route) in the range of 92-100 octane number which are currently commercialized in Indian market. In the present study, ethanol based high octane fuel blend(s) along with doping of novel indigenous type of additives (multifunctional additive &amp; octane booster) to achieve the utilization benefits in terms of fuel economy (FE) &amp; power improvement.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">The findings of present study largely suggest that with the high octane fuel blends (only ethanol) the fuel economy and Wide Open Throttle (WOT) power reduces. On the other hand, by adding gasoline multi-functional additive (GMFA) in combination of octane booster in the ethanol blended fuels, fuel economy and WOT power are compensated fairly. Fuel economy and Wide Open Throttle (WOT) power were investigated under operating conditions (Indian driving cycle - IDC). On adding ethanol only by 10% and 20% in gasoline the fuel economy is lowered by 1.9% and 4.94% respectively. The loss in fuel economy is reduced by 0.74% and 3.36% through addition of indigenously developed GMFA with Octane Booster in E10 &amp; E20 gasoline blends.</div></div>
- Conference Article
6
- 10.4271/2014-01-2799
- Oct 13, 2014
<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The fuel economy of vehicles is today in everyone's focus. Governments, original equipment manufacturers, and consumers alike are all demanding improvements.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Historically, reducing oil viscosity has resulted in improved fuel economy; however, lower viscosities can lead to reduced or “weakened” lubricant films, which may fail to hold up under higher temperatures and heavy loading associated with axle operations. The fluid development challenge is to bridge the gap between fuel economy and operating temperature control.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Achieving both fuel economy and durability are not always compatible objectives. The real challenge is to build in the high torque protection historically associated with higher viscosity grades, like SAE 75W-90, while delivering the axle efficiency of lighter grades such as an SAE 75W-85 grade. In previous work, it has been shown that critical factors for achieving the proper efficiency-durability balance include viscosity, traction, fluid film thickness and additive chemistry. [<span class="xref">1</span>,<span class="xref">2</span>,<span class="xref">3</span>,<span class="xref">4</span>,<span class="xref">5</span>]</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Axle oils are subjected to different modes of energy dissipation: losses related to loading and losses that are independent of loading i.e., churning or spin losses. In designing versatile axle lubricants, an understanding of fluid rheological properties under both high and low loading is important. High loading is indicative of certain operations such as taxis, while lower loading is consistent with normal city-highway driving.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">The term durability has many manifestations however here it is used principally to describe a fluid's effect on operating temperature under high speed conditions (as in motorway and autobahn situations). An important consequence of poor or insufficient fluid durability is bearing failure; therefore, bearing life testing has been included in this investigation.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">The growing need for improved fuel economy is also a global issue due to the relationship between reduced fuel consumption and reduced CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">The challenge for vehicle manufacturers is to match the proper fluid with the application to provide the required durability protection while maximizing fuel efficiency.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">This paper will describe the use of controlled laboratory testing methods for the development of axle fluids that maximize both the fuel efficiency and durability performance across the spectrum of the new viscosity classifications.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">The relationship of viscosity and fluid formulation choices will be examined with respect to inherent fluid properties, as well as the impact of these fluid properties on axle efficiency and temperature performance characteristics.</div></div>
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