Addressing a Problem of Regional Socio-Economic System Control with Growth in the Social and Engineering Fields Using an Index Method for Building a Transitional Period

Abstract

In the paper, a problem of socio-economic system management, as exemplified by one of the regions of the Russian Federation, is solved. An algorithm of an optimal control using an index method for building a transitional period and with an ability to take into account growth rates in the engineering and social fields is created. Terms of reference are given on the basis of a regional economic system macro-level model, with production capital and human capital viewed as development factors. A human capital modeling underlying hypothesis is an assumption that it is built on three main aggregative premises: healthcare, education and culture. Including human capital factor in the macro model and an ability to consider progress growth rates are two distinctive features of a given management problem statement. The problem solving algorithm comprises two steps: building the quasi magistral itself and figuring an optimized trajectory which would propel and economic system to the quasi magistral. A gateway period is a transitional period where an optimal control is built using an index method. A transitional period can be diminished by speeding up progress growth rates in the social and engineering fields. In this paper, a two-stage way to build an optimized investment distribution is used upon a model which contains more than to factors for the first time. In this case, a quasi-stationary state is an optimized balanced growth half line. As a statistical base for the analysis, a demographic data and an Udmurt Republic human capital and production capital investment volume data are used. For an unknown parameters’ identification, a period of years 1998–2018 is drawn upon. Optimized investment rates which enable an economic system to reach balanced growth trajectory by the year 2025 are calculated. The proposed method can be used for an optimal control of socio-economic systems, as well as for comparing and estimating their growth rates in the social and engineering fields.