Adding up the numbers: COVID-19 in South Africa

Background The incidence and prevalence of COVID-19 continues to escalate globally, with the consequence to quality of life, the economies of nations and various sectors of society. While there is substantial research on the impact and experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic, little remains known about the perceptions and lived experiences of families living with people diagnosed with COVID-19, particularly within the South African context. Purpose To explore the perceptions and lived experiences of family members living with people diagnosed with COVID-19 in South Africa. Methods A descriptive phenomenological design was used. Data were collected from 15 participants who were family members of people diagnosed with COVID-19 in South Africa. Purposive snowball sampling was used to identify and recruit participants, and data were collected at community level in KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape and Gauteng, South Africa. Individual in-depth interviews were used to collect the data, and an audio tape was used to record all interviews. Data were transcribed verbatim and analysed using a phenomenological data analysis processes. Ethical approval to conduct the study was obtained from the University of KwaZulu-Natal Research Ethics Committee—reference number: BREC00003228/2021. Results Four super-ordinate themes emerged in relation to the perceptions and lived experiences of family members living with people diagnosed with COVID-19 in South Africa. The superordinate themes were: (1) sources of information about COVID-19, (2) pandemic perceptions and experiences, (3) impact of diagnosis and related burden and (4) aftermath of living with a family member diagnosed with COVID-19. Discussion and conclusion Family members’ perceptions and lived experiences of COVID-19 are largely influenced by media, moreover, the impact of diagnosis has consequences for the physical, mental and emotional well-being of family members. Diagnosis disrupts family dynamics by depleting financial resources due to the caregiver burden experienced. The findings thus imply that provision of psychosocial support is imperative for families living with persons diagnosed with COVID-19.

In the wake of the unprecedented health crisis triggered by the global COVID-19 pandemic, countries are still grappling with the pandemic’s immediate health and socioeconomic consequences. This paper presents an extended SEIRD model with vaccination to study the evolution of COVID-19 in South Africa and Tunisia since the commencement of the vaccination campaign in each country, respectively. Epidemiologists often quantify a risk reduction following the implementation of non-pharmaceutical containment measures and vaccines when attempting to stem the spread of pandemics. However, an important question they often ask is the effectiveness of the non-pharmaceutical containment measures (social distancing and lockdowns) and the efficacy of such measures, including vaccines. Africa’s COVID-19 vaccine roll-out stands at 16% as of April 2022; however, the continent lags behind many developing countries even though it harbours about 16% of the world population. While proliferating literature quantifies the efficacy and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, very little has been done using the SEIRDV model in African countries. This study compares the model-predicted results with the available data to estimate the dynamics of the infected population, using data from 20-03-2021 to 30-12-2021. A simulation of the SEIRDV model is performed and fitted to the data. Simulating the model involves solving a system of Ordinary Differential Equations numerically by taking the initial values for the key model parameters as inputs. After simulating the SEIRDV model, the model parameters are compared with real-world COVID-19 and vaccination data in order to estimate the values of the different parameters that best fit the observed data. The results of the study showed an inverted U-shaped trend for the infection rate after vaccination, indicating that increasing the vaccination rates reduces the transmission rates. Therefore African countries must continue to scale up the vaccination campaigns, and the world needs to endeavour to ensure an equitable vaccination roll-out to developing countries.

COVID-19 is a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SAR–CoV-2) spread from person to person through infected air droplets of saliva and discharged from sneezes and coughs. This study seeks to contribute to knowledge and understanding of how coronavirus outbreaks could be addressed by examining communication and media strategies used by governments and public health institutions in South Africa and Ghana during the coronavirus pandemic. The study systematically analysed published data on COVID-19 in South Africa and Ghana from 2019 to 2020 to identify recurring themes to discuss issues regarding communication strategies in response to the outbreak. This study found various inadequacies and challenges to communication and media strategies to address the spread of COVID-19. The governments and public health institutions in South Africa and Ghana used multiple mass media channels to communicate different messages and create awareness about COVID-19. This article recommends the improvement of communication and media engagements between governments and health stakeholders in South Africa and Ghana to increase public awareness of the risks, threats and outcomes of COVID-19. The media in South Africa and Ghana must conduct fact finding of information about coronavirus from official sources in government and health institutions before dissemination to the public to minimise fake news, misinformation and disinformation. The governments and health institutions must not rely solely on traditional mass media strategies but also integrate indigenous communication strategies for engagements to address the challenges of mass media to increase public awareness about COVID-19 in South Africa and Ghana.

Lack of proper messaging at an outbreak of a novel disease causes panic with more serious damaging impacts on livelihoods, social-fabric of communities, economic landscapes, and political stability. There have been notable high levels of panic in South Africa and the globe with regard to the outbreak of COVID-19. The current lack of knowledge and poor communication has been attributed as a precursor to the skyrocketing global panic (Freimuth, Linnan, Potter, 2000). Fuelling this panic is the rate at which the incidence of new infections is increasing in countries outside of China, with Italy and Iran leading on a number of new infections and death cases. A Content Analysis method was used to analyze articles, media clips and social network reactions to the outbreak of COVID-19 in South Africa on the 6th of March 2020. The key to the investigation was to understand how authorities are communicating with the public on matters of national concern – regarding how they are prepared to deal and handle the outbreak. This study further compares the South African response to China at the outbreak of SARS in 2003. Codes to analyze texts extracted from targeted media and scientific sources and themes were generated and presented. Findings indicate that the general public does not have faith in government authorities, due to a lack of communication. It is perceived that lack of communication is indicative of a lack of preparedness. Contrary to evident panic in South Africa, scientific data indicates that there is no need to panic as a result of the outbreak of COVID-19. Further, a study from the French Institute for Health and Medical Research in 2020 on the prepardness of African countries to handle COVID-19 indicates that South Africa is one of the better-equipped countries in Africa to detect and handle any incidence of COVID-19. This study further recommends that authorities and policy-makers use communications to educate the public far earlier at the onset of epidemic outbreaks, regardless of where it happens as the air-traffic connects global countries, resulting in the potential for disease importation.

The South African government instituted a countermeasure against COVID-19 in March 2020, which had a significant impact on many individuals, particularly the youth. However, there is a limited understanding of how household characteristics influenced adolescents’ behavioral changes and their adoption of preventive measures during the pandemic. This study aimed to explore the relationship between the role of household characteristics and adolescents’ behavioral responses to COVID-19 in South Africa. Using the latest data from the South African National Income Dynamics-Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (Wave 5), which includes responses from 5581 (99.9%) youths aged 15 – 24, we analyzed changes in their behaviors and the preventive measures they adopted. The study controlled for various household, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents. We utilized cross-tabulations and an ordinal logistics regression model to determine the relationship between the covariates and the outcome of behavioral changes and preventive measures adopted. Our findings revealed that none of the respondents adopted all recommended precautionary measures for COVID-19, while 55.7% exhibited low behavioral changes, and only 2.7% exhibited higher behavioral changes throughout the pandemic. The results indicate that, at both the individual and household levels, factors such as gender, educational attainment, source of household income, and access to electricity increase the odds of behavioral changes against COVID-19 in South Africa. In addition, among household-level factors, adolescents without access to water were more likely to adopt one to three preventive measures compared to those with access to water (52.2% vs. 47.9%, p < 0.001). Therefore, to effectively prevent the spread of infection in South Africa, it is pertinent to address these household characteristics and encourage preventive measures tailored to these factors.

Background Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to ravage both the health and economy of South Africa. This study estimated the total present value of human life (TPVHL) losses associated with COVID-19 in South Africa. Methods The human capital approach (HCA) was used to value the 101,146 human life losses associated with COVID-19 in South Africa as of 30 May 2022 – assuming South Africa’s average life expectancy of 64.88 years and a 3% discount rate. The TPVHL was the sum of discounted values of human life (VHL) across the 17 age groups. The PVHL for each age group is the product of the sum of discounted years of life lost per person, gross domestic product per capita net of current health expenditure per person, and the number of COVID-19 deaths borne by a specific age group. During sensitivity analysis, the HCA model was reanalysed four times alternately, assuming a 5% discount rate, 10% discount rate, Africa’s highest average life expectancy of 78.76 years (Algeria females), and the world’s highest life expectancy of 88.17 years (Hong Kong females). Results The 101,146 human lives lost had a TPVHL of Int$7,566,656,063, and an average of Int$74,809 per human life lost to COVID-19. Subsequent re-calculation of the model with a 5% and 10% discount rates diminished the TPVHL by Int$1,177,446,403 (15.6%) and Int$2,997,459,371 (39.6%), respectively. Further, a reanalysis of the model with Africa’s highest average life expectancy and the world’s highest life expectancy triggered growth in the TPVHL of Int$8,846,142,813 (116.9%) and Int$15,363,165,669 (203.04%), respectively. Conclusions The average discounted value per human life lost to COVID-19 of Int$74,809 is five-fold the GDP per capita for South Africa in 2022, setting the country back a few years in terms of socio-economic development. Thus, COVID-19 continues to have a significant negative impact on the life and livelihoods of South Africans. The economic evidence complements the human rights case for increased domestic investment into health-related systems to bridge the gaps in coverage of health development-related services.

Covid 19 in South Africa created opportunity for criminals to enrich themselves at the expense of the poor. Public and private sector officials benefited due to irregular tenders and overpricing of personal protective equipments in South Africa as reported on media platforms. This article explores opportunistic crimes associated with Covid 19 and their impact on the fight against the pandemic. This qualitative article adopted a non-empirical research design: Systematic review, indirect observation schedules to identify and describe available research literature ‘using systematic and explicit accountable methods and pre-specified formalised tools for searching and integrating literature.
 The data was collected from January-July 2021. The collected data was analysed through inductive textual content analysis. Findings revealed that public officials benefited from irregular PPE tenders as well as friends and families of politicians. The findings further indicate that billions of Rands were looted from funds which were meant to fight Covid 19 in South Africa. Lastly the findings show that law enforcement agencies are not effective in dealing with cases of Covid 19 crimes. Based on the findings, the following recommendations were developed: Law enforcement agencies should be equipped with resources to deal with Covid 19 crimes and ensure successful prosecution of those crimes, Competition Commission should investigate the companies which benefited from irregular tenders and overpricing of PPE’s so that they could be held accountable. Public participation should be strengthened to combat crime.

A strange phenomenon of the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak hit the world in 2019. Although countries such as South Africa have procurement policies and procedures on parliamentary actions, the COVID-19 pandemic forced those protocols to be not followed. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of corruption on human rights and civil liberties during Covid-19 in South Africa. Ten participants representing different age groups from Polokwane in Limpopo province were purposively sampled for semi-structured interviews as victims of the lockdown who could not even visit their homes. One of the major findings is that not following government protocols led to serious violations of policies and human rights at large. The discussion in this study shows that the leading political party issued regulations that by far limit civil liberties without any proper justification or legitimacy. For a while, this kind of regulation and issuing of tenders through illegitimate processes has been politically discussed as one of the factors that impoverish the state and increase corruption. In this study, researchers recommend that the South African government must have a plan for managing unforeseen circumstances that can help in times of despair. This study contributes to scholarship as it exposes an academic view of how corruption becomes the result of infringing on human rights and civil liberties. Using an analytic theoretic framework, the negative impact of corruption on human rights and civil liberties in South Africa from 2019 to 2022 will be discussed to expose the seriousness of hasty decision-making by the government. Keywords: Corruption, Human Rights, Civil Liberties, COVID-19 Pandemic, Government Procedures

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered severe social and economic effects in South Africa, resulting in many people losing their jobs. This had a negative bearing on household income. Accompanied by long-existing social-economic disparities in South Africa, COVID-19 has adversely affected impoverished South African households that rely on government social protection programs to sustain their livelihoods. In response to the unanticipated effects of COVID-19, the government of South Africa quickly implemented social protection measures, including COVID-19 Social Relief of Distress Grant, Social Support Grants, the National Disaster Benefit, and the COVID-19 Temporary Relief Scheme, compensation fund, and the unemployment insurance fund (UIF). These measures were aimed at lessening the burden of the pandemic on poor households in both urban and rural communities. Utilizing a constructivist paradigm that adopts a qualitative approach, the chapter uses document analysis to explore the implementation of social protection measures during COVID-19 in South Africa. The chapter further assesses the challenges faced by the government of South Africa in rendering relief aid as a response to the effects of COVID 19. The findings of 4the chapter revealed that the distribution of COVID-19 aid was characterized by corruption. Lack of capacity among local municipalities was also noted; these struggled to deal with homeless people. Alleviating household poverty was also a challenge experienced by the government, as the money and food hampers were not enough to support the many hungry families. We conclude that apart from government support, stakeholder intervention was required to assist struggling families and unemployed people, as COVID-19 has uprooted the livelihoods of many citizens. We recommend that the government of South Africa should increase its role as a welfare provider as well as collaborate with stakeholders towards easing the brunt of COVID-19 in communities.

In South Africa, the first stringent COVID-19 lockdown led to joblessness, poverty and isolation from protective social networks stripping many families of the resources they needed to care for children. Whilst widespread hardship was reported, this viewpoint teases out the range of experiences to support policy-making for future pandemics. The authors draw on the findings from the National Income Dynamics Study: Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey and projects that elicited children’s perspectives. These sources reveal that children living in socially and spatially diverse families and locations had different experiences. Vital safety nets include a strong civil society, a culture of ubuntu in rural and peri-urban communities, and the school feeding programme in low-income neighbourhoods. However, permanently raising the child support grant above the food poverty line would protect children during pandemics, mitigate against hunger and reduce the hidden inequalities that exist around access to food between urban and rural areas.

This paper provides an introduction to this Special Issue of Development Southern Africa that evaluates the impact of COVID-19 in South Africa, one year into the pandemic. All of the papers use evidence from the National Income Dynamics Study – Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM), a five-wave longitudinal survey conducted from April 2020 to July 2021. As we write this article in June 2022, South Africa has just returned to the same level of GDP that it had at the end of 2019. This two-year period marks one of the most tumultuous in the country’s economic history. We showcase results pertaining to employment, income support, hunger, schooling, early childhood development, mental health, and vaccine hesitancy. We also reflect on the policy learnings that can be gleaned in each of these domains and draw on some of the international lessons learnt to point to the way forward.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to be a problem in South Africa. Individuals affected and infected by the disease suffer from stigma resulting in increased COVID-19 infections. In this paper, we developed a mathematical model to assess the effects of stigma on COVID-19 in South Africa, using low, moderate, and high stigma regimes in the population. The mathematical model was analysed and the basic reproduction number, R0, of the COVID-19 model with stigma was determined. The model was then fitted to data of the four COVID-19 waves for the new daily infected cases, and the estimated parameter values from different waves are presented. The effects of stigma on COVID-19 waves were examined using the four stigma regimes (high, moderate, low, and stigma-free regimes). Our results revealed that stigma is instrumental in the increase in the number of COVID-19 infections. It is also a significant contributor to sustaining COVID-19 in the population and probably in other infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases. The results obtained can influence policy directions with respect to stigma and its impact on the transmission dynamics of diseases.

The emergence and fast global spread of COVID-19 has presented one of the greatest public health challenges in modern times with no proven cure or vaccine. Africa is still early in this epidemic, therefore the extent of disease severity is not yet clear. We used a mathematical model to fit to the observed cases of COVID-19 in South Africa to estimate the basic reproductive number and critical vaccination coverage to control the disease for different hypothetical vaccine efficacy scenarios. We also estimated the percentage reduction in effective contacts due to the social distancing measures implemented. Early model estimates show that COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa had a basic reproductive number of 2.95 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.83–3.33). A vaccine with 70% efficacy had the capacity to contain COVID-19 outbreak but at very higher vaccination coverage 94.44% (95% Crl 92.44–99.92%) with a vaccine of 100% efficacy requiring 66.10% (95% Crl 64.72–69.95%) coverage. Social distancing measures put in place have so far reduced the number of social contacts by 80.31% (95% Crl 79.76–80.85%). These findings suggest that a highly efficacious vaccine would have been required to contain COVID-19 in South Africa. Therefore, the current social distancing measures to reduce contacts will remain key in controlling the infection in the absence of vaccines and other therapeutics.

Background: COVID-19 has emerged and spread at great speed globally and has presented one of the greatest public health challenges in modern times with no proven cure or vaccine. Africa is still early in this epidemic, therefore the spectrum of disease severity is not yet clear. Methods: We used a mathematical model to fit to the observed cases of COVID-19 in South Africa to estimate the basic reproductive number and critical vaccination coverages to control the disease for different hypothetical vaccine efficacy scenarios. We also estimated the percentage reduction in effective contacts due to the social distancing measures implemented. Results: Early model estimates show that COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa had a basic reproductive number of 2.95(95% credible interval [CrI] 2.83-3.33). A vaccine with 70% efficacy had the capacity to contain COVID-19 outbreak but at very higher vaccination coverage 94.44% (95% Crl 92.44-99.92%) with a vaccine of 100% efficacy requiring 66.10% (95% Crl 64.72-69.95%) coverage. Social distancing measures put in place have so far reduced the number of social contacts by 80.31% (95% Crl 79.76-80.85%). Conclusions: Findings suggest a highly efficacious vaccine would have been required to contain COVID-19 in South Africa. Therefore, the current social distancing measures to reduce contacts will remain key in controlling the infection in the absence of vaccines and other therapeutics. Funding Statement: This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Declaration of Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. Ethics Approval Statement: The authors stated that ethics approval was not required for this study.

The aim of this study is to predict the COVID-19 infection fifth wave in South Africa using the Gaussian mixture model for the available data of the early four waves for March 18, 2020-April 13, 2022. The quantification data is considered, and the time unit is used in days. We give the modeling of COVID-19 in South Africa and predict the future fifth wave in the country. Initially, we use the Gaussian mixture model to characterize the coronavirus infection to fit the early reported cases of four waves and then to predict the future wave. Actual data and the statistical analysis using the Gaussian mixture model are performed which give close agreement with each other, and one can able to predict the future wave. After that, we fit and predict the fifth wave in the country and it is predicted to be started in the last week of May 2022 and end in the last week of September 2022. It is predicted that the peak may occur on the third week of July 2022 with a high number of 19383 cases. The prediction of the fifth wave can be useful for the health authorities in order to prepare themselves for medical setup and other necessary measures. Further, we use the result obtained from the Gaussian mixture model in the new model formulated in terms of differential equations. The differential equations model is simulated for various values of the model parameters in order to determine the disease's possible eliminations.