Abstract
The immunity profile against H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the commercial poultry value chain network in Egypt was modeled with the use of different vaccination scenarios. The model estimated the vaccination coverage, the protective seroconversion level, and the duration of immunity for each node of the network and vaccination scenario. Partial budget analysis was used to compare the benefit-cost of the different vaccination scenarios. The model predicted that targeting day-old chick avian influenza (AI) vaccination in industrial and large hatcheries would increase immunity levels in the overall poultry population in Egypt and especially in small commercial poultry farms (from <30% to >60%). This strategy was shown to be more efficient than the current strategy of using inactivated vaccines. Improving HPAI control in the commercial poultry sector in Egypt would have a positive impact to improve disease control.
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