Abstract
Earthquake precursors are vitally important for warning and risk evaluation, but shedding light on them is a complex task for seismologists and geologists. We attempted to illuminate the precursory rules of fault failure by traditional biaxial-direction shear tests for a zigzag-type gouge with different size and arrangement of simulated faults manufactured from polymethyl methacrylate materials. Shear stress, acoustic emissions, and vibration signals were recorded and comparatively analyzed. Two important findings were obtained: (1) the linearly increasing trend of shear stress peaks generated by foreshocks may indicate the foreshock effect before a larger earthquake triggered by natural fault gouge failure; and (2) four kinds of earthquake precursors were discovered, and earthquake intensity and precursors may be dependent on the time of macro-fracture formation and the quantity of micro-fractures initiated before mainshock. The study contributes to interpreting earthquake shear-slip characteristics and may even help provide warnings of failure and instability.
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