Acid Rain Reduction Credits

Exploring the role of nuclear energy in the energy transition: A comparative perspective of the effects of coal, oil, natural gas, renewable energy, and nuclear power on economic growth and carbon emissions

Summary Cities, contributing more than 75% of global carbon emissions, are at the heart of climate change mitigation. Given cities' heterogeneity, they need specific low-carbon roadmaps instead of one-size-fits-all approaches. Here, we present the most detailed and up-to-date accounts of CO2 emissions for 294 cities in China and examine the extent to which their economic growth was decoupled from emissions. Results show that from 2005 to 2015, only 11% of cities exhibited strong decoupling, whereas 65.6% showed weak decoupling, and 23.4% showed no decoupling. We attribute the economic-emission decoupling in cities to several socioeconomic factors (i.e., structure and size of the economy, emission intensity, and population size) and find that the decline in emission intensity via improvement in production and carbon efficiency (e.g., decarbonizing the energy mix via building a renewable energy system) is the most important one. The experience and status quo of carbon emissions and emission-GDP (gross domestic product) decoupling in Chinese cities may have implications for other developing economies to design low-carbon development pathways.

To mitigate climate change, reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is of paramount importance. China, the largest global CO2 emitter, proposes to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060; transforming the energy structure represents one of the primary means of addressing carbon emissions; thus, it is essential to investigate the impacts of alternate energy sources throughout the country. Based on energy consumption and carbon emissions data from 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macau, due to the lack of data), the study here investigated the shares of coal, petroleum, natural gas, and non-fossil energy sources (i.e., hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, and biomass power), as they relate to total, per capita, and per unit GDP CO2 emissions via spatial regression. The results showed that: (1) The epicenters of coal and carbon emissions have shifted from the east to the central and western regions; (2) There is a significant correlation between energy structure and carbon emissions: coal has a positive effect, petroleum’s effects are positive at first, and negative subsequently; while both natural gas and non-fossil energy sources have a negative impact; (3) Provincial-level carbon emissions are affected by energy structure, carbon emissions in neighboring regions, and other factors.

Hydroelectricity, an option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from thermal power plants

SummaryIncreasing variable renewable energy (VRE) is one of the main approaches for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. However, we find a GHG increase risk associated with increasing VRE: VRE crowds out nuclear power (VRECON) but cannot fully obtain the left market share, which is obtained by fossil energy. We developed an integrated dispatch-and-investment model to estimate the VRECON GHG-boosting effect in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. In the above two markets, VRECON could increase the annual GHG emission by up to 136 MTCO2eq totally. Furthermore, we find that the VRECON GHG-boosting effect can be mitigated by combining wind and solar power. We argue that, for GHG abatement, policymakers should require the proper mix of wind and solar power in renewable portfolio standards and control nuclear power’s retirement pace to match the progress of VRE growth.

Table of Contents Introduction Part 1 Global Warming and Energy Production 1 Global climate change: Real or myth? What is the debate about? The IPCC and International Conventions The greenhouse effect Skeptical politicians and pundits Skeptical scientists Historical temperature and greenhouse gas record Last 10,000 years of climate - the Holocene Recent changes in temperature and CO2 Melting glaciers and rising seas Models Response to Singer and Avery Predictions of future global warming and consequences Sea level and acidification Global weirding 2 Where our Energy Comes From A brief history of energy Coal Oil and natural gas Uranium How much energy do we use and where does it come from? World energy usage What can be done to reduce our carbon-intensive energy economy? 3 The Good, Bad and Ugly of Coal and Gas Coal Anatomy of a coal-fired plant Carbon dioxide emissions and other pollutants Mining and health hazards How much is there? 50 Carbon Capture and Storage Natural Gas How much is there? Greenhouse gas emissions Fracking 4 The Siren song of renewable energy Solar Photovoltaic (PV) solar power Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Solar heating Limitations of solar power Wind Limitations of Wind Power Summary 5 Back to the Future: Nuclear Power Anatomy of a reactor Advantages of nuclear power Baseload power 82 Greenhouse gas emission Location and footprint Cost Subsidies for nuclear and renewables Advanced Reactor Technology Can nuclear replace coal? Arguments against nuclear power Part 2 Radiation and its Biological Effects 6 The world of the atom What is radiation? Black body radiation - the quantum The nuclear atom The quantum atom The nucleus Radioactivity: decay processes Fission Summary 7 How dangerous is radiation? Interactions of Radiation with Matter Electromagnetic radiation (photon) interactions Charged particle interactions Neutron interactions What is a dose of radiation? Effects of radiation on DNA and cells How does radiation cause cancer? What are the risks? Death from radiation Cancer from radiation Hereditary effects of radiation How bad is plutonium? Summing up 8 What comes naturally and not so naturally Natural Background Radiation Cosmic radiation Primordial terrestrial radiation Medical exposure Part 3 Risks of Nuclear Power 9 Nuclear Waste What is nuclear waste? The long and the short of storage Yucca Mountain Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Recycling spent nuclear fuel Making new fuel from recycled waste Summing up 10 About those accidents The Scare, March 16, 1979 Three Mile Island, March 28, 1979 How the accident happened Consequences of TMI Chernobyl, April 26, 1986 How the accident happened The hazardous radioisotopes Health consequences Environmental consequences A trip to Chernobyl Consequences for nuclear power Fukushima, March 11, 2011 How the accident happened Health and environmental consequences Consequences for nuclear power Public perception of risks from nuclear power 11 The Quest for Uranium Mining for uranium Shinkolobwe Shiprock Milling In Situ Recovery Enrichment Fuel fabrication World resources of uranium Megatons to Megawatts Is there enough uranium for a nuclear renaissance? Breeder reactors Thorium Summary 12 Now What? Myth 1: Radiation is extremely dangerous and we don't understand it Myth 2: There is no solution to the nuclear produced by nuclear power Myth 3: Nuclear power is unsafe and nuclear accidents have killed hundreds of thousands of people Myth 4: Uranium will run out too soon and mining it generates so much carbon dioxide that it loses its carbon-free advantage Myth 5: Nuclear power is so expensive it can't survive in the marketplace Afterword Appendix A: Global warming Earth's energy balance: Radiative forcing The emission scenarios of the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) Appendix B Glossary of terms, definitions and units Appendix C Glossary of acronyms and abbreviations Appendix D Selected Nobel prizes Index

Fair comparison of the climate impacts from different energy sources can be made only by accounting for the emissions of all relevant greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the full energy chain (FENCH) of the energy sources. FENCH-GHG emission factors of most of the non-fossil fuel energies are lower than those of the fossil fuels that are in the range of 500-1200 g CO2/kW h(e). The improvement rates concerning their CO2-to-energy ratios of OECD countries and some developing countries are discussed, showing the low performance of the latter from 1965-1996. Detailed FENCH-GHG systems analyses are given for nuclear power, hydropower, and wind and solar power. The FENCH-GHG emission factor of nuclear power is 8.9 g CO2-equiv./kW h(e) and applies to light-water nuclear power plants. The main contributions are from milling, conversion of lower-grade ore, enrichment, construction and operation of the power plant, and reprocessing (if relevant). For hydropower an emission factor is reported of 16 g CO2-equiv./kW h(e) for the best investigated flat-area cold climate power plants. The main, biogenic, emission source is the water reservoir. The information on high-altitude alpine reservoir-type and run-of- river hydropower generation is limited. These plants could probably have emission factors in the low range of 5-10 g CO2-equiv./kW h(e). The FENCH CO2-equivalent emission factors of wind power systems are in the order of 15 g CO2-equiv./kW h(e). The main source is associated with the materials for the turbine and for its foundation. Solar PV and solar thermal power are in an intermediate range their current values are 100-200 and 50-80g CO2-equiv./kW h(e), respectively. GHG emissions are mainly from silicon, which dominates the PV market.

Optimization of China’s electric power sector targeting water stress and carbon emissions

As the world moves towards cleaner forms of energy worldwide, gas will have an increasingly important role to play in the future energy mix. From this perspective, there has been growing interest in the relative greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities of a range of fossil fuels, and how various forms of LNG compare to not only coal, but also to renewables and nuclear across their life cycles. These issues are important for energy and GHG policy, especially with developments in carbon pricing. However, until recently there has been little information on the life cycle GHG emissions from Australian fossil fuel exports. This paper helps to complete the picture. Using a wide range of available data from government submissions by industry and the authors’ own project experience, life cycle GHG emissions estimates were developed for LNG derived from conventional natural gas sourced from Western Australia's North West Shelf and Queensland coal seam gas (CSG). A comprehensive assessment of GHG emissions was made for upstream operations, LNG production, transport, regasification, and end-user combustion for electricity generation (assumed to be in China). These life cycle emission estimates were compared to life cycle emissions for Australian black coal exported to China and used to generate electricity. Comparisons were also made with renewables and nuclear. The results show that the life cycle GHG intensity (tCO2-e/MWh) of electricity sent out is highly sensitive to the thermal efficiency of the end-use combustion technology. For most comparison scenarios, natural gas-fired power generation is less GHG intensive than black coal-fired power generation. The differences range from 17% to 56% less intensive for a variety of plant efficiencies. In some cases, coal was marginally less GHG intensive when comparing open-cycle gas technology with ultra-supercritical coal combustion. LNG derived from CSG was also found to be more GHG intensive than conventional gas. Modelling of upstream methane fugitive emission scenarios from CSG (using 100-year and 20-year methane Global Warming Potentials) had little impact on the life cycle GHG intensity rankings, such is the dominance of end-use combustion. When exported to China for electricity production, LNG was found to be 22–36 more GHG intensive than wind and concentrated solar thermal (CST) power and 13–21 times more GHG intensive than nuclear power

There’s a market growing in the United States, but unlike markets that trade in tangible commodities, this one trades in the absence of something no one wants: greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Hundreds of companies make it possible for individuals, organizations, businesses, and even events such as rock music festivals to proclaim themselves carbon-neutral by paying someone else to reduce their emissions. Worried about your carbon footprint? No problem. For fees of US$2–50 per ton of “avoided emissions,” an offset provider will funnel your money into an activity or technology that keeps greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. The question is, are offset buyers really getting what they paid for?

There has not been a nuclear power plant licensed since 1979 due to the radioactive releases at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant and an accident at Chernobyl. The public and federal government opinion regarding nuclear power has since changed because the nuclear power plants are operating with unprecedented reliability and economy. Nuclear has again become the focus of attention as the natural gas prices increase coupled with capacity shortages in California in 2000-2001. Sulfur dioxide produced by burning coal causes acid rain. Green house gases such as carbon dioxide and five others come from burning fossil fuel in the power plants. The amount of heat trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes global warming and serious disruptions to agriculture and other ecosystems. In December 1997, delegates from 159 countries gathered in Kyoto, Japan, and adopted a treaty that could limit the greenhouse gases. In order to reduce the greenhouse gases, the accord encouraged the fossil fuel dependent countries to develop renewable and alternative technologies. Nuclear power is an alternative technology. With the modular type construction, standardization, and one-step approval, the nuclear power can be revived. The new reactors are safer and more efficient than plants built in the past. Nuclear energy is clean, affordable and reliable and offers a potential and promise for this country and the rest of the world. The paper discusses different ways of reviving nuclear power.

People rely upon oil and this will continue for a few more decades. Other conventional sources may be more enduring, but are not without serious disadvantages. Power from natural resources has always had great appeal. Coal is plentiful, though there is concern about despoliation in winning it and pollution in burning it. Nuclear power has been developed with remarkable timeliness, but is not universally welcomed since construction of the plant is energy-intensive and there is concern about the disposal of its long-lived active wastes. Barrels of oil, lumps of coal, even uranium come from nature but the possibilities of almost limitless power from the atmosphere and the oceans seem to have special attraction. The wind machine provided an early way of developing motive power. The massive increases in fuel prices over the last years have however, made any scheme not requiring fuel appear to be more attractive and to be worth reinvestigating. In considering the atmosphere and the oceans as energy sources, the four main contenders are wind power, wave power, tidal and power from ocean thermal gradients. The renewable energy resources are particularly suited for the provision of rural power supplies and a major advantage is that equipments such as flat plate solar driers, solar power, wind machines, geothermal energy, wave, tidal, power from ocean gradients, etc., can be constructed using local resources and without the advantage results from the feasibility of local maintenance and the general encouragement such local manufacture gives to the build up of small scale rural based industry. This article gives some examples of small-scale energy converters, nevertheless it should be noted that small conventional engines are currently the major source of power in rural areas and will continue to be so for a long time to come. There is a need for some further development to suit local conditions, minimize spare holdings and maximize interchangeability both of engine parts and of the engine application. Emphasis should be placed on full local manufacture. Key words: Renewable energy technologies, biomass energy, solar energy, wind power, geothermal energy, wave and tidal power, greenhouse gases.

Scenario analysis of the Indonesia carbon tax impact on carbon emissions using system dynamics modeling and STIRPAT model

The reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, define the increase in the content of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere as the most likely cause of warming. The consequences of global warming are most pronounced in the Arctic zone of the planet, where temperature changes are significant. To provide an information basis for taking additional measures in the field of mitigating the effects of anthropogenic impact on climate change, reliable data on changes in GHG content in the Arctic are required. Based on monitoring data of meteorological conditions and concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and water vapor in the surface layer of the atmosphere on the Island of Bely (Arctic zone of the Russian Federation) in the summer seasons 2015—2017 the authors investigated the cycles of GHG content variability. There was no evidence of a linear relationship between the average temperature and GHG content in the summer seasons for three years. The highest average daily temperature in the summer season corresponded to the hottest 2016. No differences in mean daily GHG concentrations exceeding the standard deviation were found for three years. For all greenhouse gases, dramatic changes can be observed from a high positive Spearman coefficient to a negative one and vice versa. To demonstrate the contribution of period-related harmonics, a Fourier analysis period gram is constructed. Analysis of time series associated with cross-correlation of GHG concentrations and temperature show that methane and water vapor concentrations contain periodic components: month, decade, week and day. The identified periodic components should be considered when constructing predictive models to describe the seasonal dynamics of fluctuations in the concentration of CH4 and H2O depending on temperature. No significant periodic delays in the CO2 time series are detected, indicating a strong noise level. The data obtained during the monitoring is used as a basis for creating models that predict trends in the content changes of major GHGs.

Halving carbon emissions from tropical deforestation by 2020 could help bring the international community closer to the agreed goal of <2 degree increase in global average temperature change and is consistent with a target set last year by the governments, corporations, indigenous peoples' organizations and non‐governmental organizations that signed the New York Declaration on Forests (NYDF). We assemble and refine a robust dataset to establish a 2001–2013 benchmark for average annual carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation at 2.270 Gt CO2 yr−1. Brazil did not sign the NYDF, yet from 2001 to 2013, Brazil ranks first for both carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation and reductions in those emissions – its share of the total declined from a peak of 69% in 2003 to a low of 20% in 2012. Indonesia, an NYDF signatory, is the second highest emitter, peaking in 2012 at 0.362 Gt CO2 yr−1 before declining to 0.205 Gt CO2 yr−1 in 2013. The other 14 NYDF tropical country signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.317 Gt CO2 yr−1, while the other 86 tropical country non‐signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.688 Gt CO2 yr−1. We outline two scenarios for achieving the 50% emission reduction target by 2020, both emphasizing the critical role of Brazil and the need to reverse the trends of increasing carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation in many other tropical countries that, from 2001 to 2013, have largely offset Brazil's reductions. Achieving the target will therefore be challenging, even though it is in the self‐interest of the international community. Conserving rather than cutting down tropical forests requires shifting economic development away from a dependence on natural resource depletion toward recognition of the dependence of human societies on the natural capital that tropical forests represent and the goods and services they provide.