Accuracy of scaled GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates

Abstract. Accurate estimation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) at a high spatiotemporal resolution is important for reliable assessments of regional water resources and climate variability. Individual components of TWS include soil moisture, snow, groundwater, and canopy storage and can be estimated from the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model. The spatial resolution of CABLE is currently limited to 0.5∘ by the resolution of soil and vegetation data sets that underlie model parameterizations, posing a challenge to using CABLE for hydrological applications at a local scale. This study aims to improve the spatial detail (from 0.5 to 0.05∘) and time span (1981–2012) of CABLE TWS estimates using rederived model parameters and high-resolution meteorological forcing. In addition, TWS observations derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are assimilated into CABLE to improve TWS accuracy. The success of the approach is demonstrated in Australia, where multiple ground observation networks are available for validation. The evaluation process is conducted using four different case studies that employ different model spatial resolutions and include or omit GRACE data assimilation (DA). We find that the CABLE 0.05∘ developed here improves TWS estimates in terms of accuracy, spatial resolution, and long-term water resource assessment reliability. The inclusion of GRACE DA increases the accuracy of groundwater storage (GWS) estimates and has little impact on surface soil moisture or evapotranspiration. Using improved model parameters and improved state estimations (via GRACE DA) together is recommended to achieve the best GWS accuracy. The workflow elaborated on in this paper relies only on publicly accessible global data sets, allowing the reproduction of the 0.05∘ TWS estimates in any study region.

The gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) provides an unprecedented opportunity to detect the spatial and temporal variation of the terrestrial water storage (TWS) for regional to continental scales. However, the GRACE system's coarse temporal resolution (∼monthly) and data discontinuity missing perplexed the TWS research during the operation. In this article, the data assimilation (DA) method was employed to integrate the vertical deformation obtained from the small baseline subset (SBAS) InSAR processing into the NASA catchment land surface model (CLSM), which improved the estimation of the TWS. First, we used a one-dimensional ensemble Kalman filter for DA research to estimate the TWS in Dali Prefecture, southwestern China. Finally, we compared the estimated TWS with the GRACE-based TWS from December 2, 2018 to January 21, 2021. The unbiased root-mean-square of the open loop (OL; without DA) method and the SBAS-InSAR DA method are 61 mm and 30 mm in Dali Prefecture, respectively. Results revealed that the numerical difference between the estimated TWS and the GRACE TWS retrievals was significantly decreased by the SBAS-InSAR DA method than the OL method. In addition, the temporal resolution of the SBAS-InSAR DA-based TWS was improved to 12 days compared with GRACE-based TWS. Furthermore, we recovered the discontinuous deletion and blank of GRACE-based TWS from 2015 to 2018 by the SBAS-InSAR DA method.

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays an important role in the global water cycle. Measuring dynamic changes in TWS is essential for water resources management, weather-related hazard monitoring and agricultural production. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its following mission (GRACE-Follow on) have provided monthly terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) at a quasi-global scale. Water resource management in Nigeria faces increasing challenges due to climate variability, population growth, and land use changes. This study presents a satellite-based, remote sensing approach in the estimation of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) dynamics across Nigeria’s twelve River Basin Development Authorities (RBDAs), utilizing data from the GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite missions. The research aims to quantify monthly TWS anomalies, and additionally, it estimates groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) by integrating GRACE-derived TWS with soil moisture and surface water datasets. Results reveal pronounced seasonal fluctuations in TWS, with wet seasons (April – October) showing positive anomalies and dry seasons (November – March) marked by deficits. Southern basins like Lower Benue and Cross River exhibited higher water retention, while northern basins such as Sokoto faced persistent water stress. Long-term trends indicate a decline in TWS recovery during recent wet seasons, particularly in 2024, suggesting the impact of climate change and increased evapotranspiration. Numerically, there is over 1000 percentage change in TWS between 2004 to 2024. Groundwater remained relatively stable, acting as a buffer during dry spells, whereas surface water and soil moisture showed more dynamic responses to rainfall and evaporation. The study concludes that satellite-based monitoring offers a robust framework for understanding Nigeria’s hydrological dynamics. It recommends basin-specific interventions, including improved dam infrastructure, climate-resilient land use practices, and groundwater recharge strategies. These insights are vital for informing national water policies and enhancing resilience against future hydrological uncertainties.

Characterization of spatio-temporal patterns for various GRACE- and GLDAS-born estimates for changes of global terrestrial water storage

<p>Sea level rise (SLR) projections rely on the accurate and precise closure of Earth’s water budget. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has provided global-coverage observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies that improve accounting of ice and land hydrology changes and how these changes contribute to sea level rise. The contribution of land hydrology TWS changes to sea level rise is much smaller and less certain than contributions from glacial melt and thermal expansion. Although land hydrology TWS plays a smaller role, it is still important to investigate to improve the precision of the overall global water budget. This study analyzes how data assimilation techniques improve estimates of the land hydrology contribution to sea level rise. To achieve this, three global TWS datasets were analyzed: (1) GRACE TWS observations alone, (2) TWS estimates from the model-only simulation using Catchment Land Surface Model, and (3) TWS estimates from a data assimilation product of (1) and (2). We compared the data assimilation product with the GRACE observations alone and the model-only simulation to isolate the contribution to sea level rise from anthropogenic activities. We assumed a balanced water budget between land hydrology and the ocean, thus changes in global TWS are considered equal and opposite to sea level rise contribution.  Over the period of 2003-2016, we found sea level rise contributions from each dataset of +0.35 mm SLR eq/yr for GRACE, -0.34 mm SLR eq/yr for model-only, and a +0.09 mm SLR eq/yr for DA (reported as the mean linear trend). Our results indicate that the model-only simulation is not capturing important hydrologic processes. These are likely anthropogenic driven, indicating direct anthropogenic and climate-driven TWS changes play a substantial role in TWS contribution to SLR.</p>

<p>In this study, we use temporal solutions of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission to study the surface mass variations of hydrological origin in North America. The most recent release (RL06) of GRACE Level 2 data from three processing centers (CSR, JPL, GFZ) and mascon products are used in a combination scheme to produce estimates of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes for the period 2002–2016. The land hydrology signal is isolated from GRACE data by removing the contribution of two major non-hydrologic processes, i.e., the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and the ice mass melting from the glaciated areas of Alaska, Greenland and the Canadian Arctic.</p><p>The examination of long-term TWS trends revealed strong signatures of the 2011–2015 droughts in California and Texas, as well as accumulation of TWS in the central part of North America. Negative long-term TWS trends associated with ice melting were found around the Hudson Bay region. The TWS changes are dominated by a strong annual and semi-annual signal with higher magnitude in Alaska and along the west coast of North America.</p><p>An additional study on the estimation of groundwater storage (GWS) changes is performed using the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) model. The GLDAS data are pre-filtered using the same strategy as GRACE data to ensure spectral consistency between them. The general behavior of GWS agrees well with the TWS, especially in terms of positive long-term GWS trends in central North America and strong annual signal in Alaska. Positive GWS trends are also identified in the east US coast.</p>

We use more than 5,000 Global Positioning System (GPS) permanent stations whose observations are processed by the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL) and located in Europe to classify them as reliable for hydrogeodetic studies, a so-called hydrogeodetic benchmarks. Benchmarks are defined by investigating whether the GPS-observed daily vertical displacements are positively and significantly correlated with hydrological model, whose Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) estimates are converted into model-predicted daily vertical displacements. Due to the complexity of the hydrospheric phenomenon, we propose that these correlations are considered at three different temporal scales, assumed a-priori as short-term, seasonal and long-term. First, the GPS-observed vertical displacements are decomposed using non-parametric wavelet decomposition and then, we correlate these decomposed displacements with high-resolution nested regional Community Land Model 5.0 (CLM5), which is more reliable than global models and represents the spatial resolution of 12 km. We prove that GPS-observed displacements at benchmark points show high correspondence to the vertical displacements derived by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We then use these benchmarked points and invert the GPS-observed displacements into TWS fields for several European basins. We demonstrate that these TWS estimates exhibit consistent and interpretable spatial patterns and are better correlated at all three temporal scales with external datasets, such as climate indices, than TWS estimates derived from the conventional approach used to date. The research is crucial for future hydrogeodetic analyses that take a step forward towards daily temporal resolution of hydrosphere-related products.

As the “Water Tower of Asia” and “The Third Pole” of the world, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) shows great sensitivity to global climate change, and the change in its terrestrial water storage has become a focus of attention globally. Differences in multi-source data and different calculation methods have caused great uncertainty in the accurate estimation of terrestrial water storage. In this study, the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB), located in the southeast of the QTP, was selected as the study area, with the aim of investigating the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of terrestrial water storage change (TWSC). Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data from 2003 to 2017, combined with the fifth-generation reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) data and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data, were adopted for the performance evaluation of TWSC estimation. Based on ERA5 and GLDAS, the terrestrial water balance method (PER) and the summation method (SS) were used to estimate terrestrial water storage, obtaining four sets of TWSC, which were compared with TWSC derived from GRACE. The results show that the TWSC estimated by the SS method based on GLDAS is most consistent with the results of GRACE. The time-lag effect was identified in the TWSC estimated by the PER method based on ERA5 and GLDAS, respectively, with 2-month and 3-month lags. Therefore, based on the GLDAS, the SS method was used to further explore the long-term temporal and spatial evolution of TWSC in the YZRB. During the period of 1948–2017, TWSC showed a significantly increasing trend; however, an abrupt change in TWSC was detected around 2002. That is, TWSC showed a significantly increasing trend before 2002 (slope = 0.0236 mm/month, p < 0.01) but a significantly decreasing trend (slope = −0.397 mm/month, p < 0.01) after 2002. Additional attribution analysis on the abrupt change in TWSC before and after 2002 was conducted, indicating that, compared with the snow water equivalent, the soil moisture dominated the long-term variation of TWSC. In terms of spatial distribution, TWSC showed a large spatial heterogeneity, mainly in the middle reaches with a high intensity of human activities and the Parlung Zangbo River Basin, distributed with great glaciers. The results obtained in this study can provide reliable data support and technical means for exploring the spatio-temporal evolution mechanism of terrestrial water storage in data-scarce alpine regions.

Natural and human-induced terrestrial water storage change: A global analysis using hydrological models and GRACE

Accurate terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimation is important to evaluate the situation of the water resources over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). This study exploits the TWS observation from the new temporal gravity field model, HUST-Grace2016 (Huazhong University of Science and Technology), which is developed by a new low-frequency noise processing strategy. A novel GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) post-processing approach is proposed to enhance the quality of the TWS estimate, and the improved TWS is used to characterize the drought and flood events over the YRB. The HUST-Grace2016-derived TWS presents good agreement with the CSR (Center for Space Research) mascon solution as well as the PCR-GLOBWB (PCRaster Global Water Balance) hydrological model. Particularly, our solution provides remarkable performance in identifying the extreme climate events e.g., flood and drought over the YRB and its sub-basins. The comparison between GRACE-derived TWS variations and the MODIS-derived (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) inundated area variations is then conducted. The analysis demonstrates that the terrestrial reflectance data can provide an alternative way of cross-comparing and validating TWS information in Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake, with a correlation coefficient of 0.77 and 0.70, respectively. In contrast, the correlation is only 0.10 for Tai Lake, indicating the limitation of cross-comparison between MODIS and GRACE data. In addition, for the first time, the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) vertical velocity data is incorporated with GRACE TWS in the exploration of the climate-induced hydrological activities. The good agreement between non-seasonal NCEP/NCAR vertical velocities and non-seasonal GRACE TWSs is found in flood years (2005, 2010, 2012 and 2016) and drought years (2006, 2011 and 2013). The evidence shown in this study may contribute to the analysis of the mechanism of climate impacts on the YRB.

Hydrology and land surface and models (HM and LSM) are essential tools for estimating global terrestrial water storage (TWS), an important component of the global water budget for assessing the accessibility and long-term variability of water supplies. With the expansion of open-source and open-data policies, the community can now perform model TWS simulation from source codes as well as directly exploit end-user hydrologic products for water resource applications. Regardless of the model effectiveness and usability, an accuracy assessment is necessary to quantify the model’s global and regional strengths, weaknesses, and reliability. This paper compares the most recent global TWS estimates from six models, namely the PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB), Noah, Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP), Catchment LSM, and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), and Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE)—the latter of which is cross validated for the first time. TWS observations from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellite missions between 2002 and 2021 are used to validate the model. The analyses show that Noah-MP outperforms other models in terms of global average correlations and root mean square errors. PCR-GLOBWB performance is superior in irrigated regions because of the inclusion of human intervention components in the model. CABLE, a core LSM of the Australian climate model, significantly outperforms all others in Australia. CLSM performs reasonably well, but the TWS long-term trend appears to be incorrect due to an overestimated groundwater component. Noah performs similarly (but inferiorly) to Noah-MP, most likely due to model physics sharing. VIC has the least agreement with GRACE and GRACE-FO. The evaluation also sheds some light on the role of forcing data in model performance, particularly for ready-to-use products such as GLDAS, where incorporating MERRA-2 or ERA5 data into GLDAS Noah simulations may potentially improve its TWS accuracy, which has previously been overlooked due to limited modeling capacity. Despite each model’s unique strength, the ensemble mean TWS, particularly when Noah-MP and PCR-GLOBWB are included, yields better TWS estimates than an individual model result. The findings of this study could serve as a benchmark for future model development and the data published in this paper could aid in the scientific advancement and discoveries of the hydrology community.

The accuracy of global water balance estimates is limited by the lack of observations at large scale and the uncertainties of model simulations. Global retrievals of terrestrial water storage (TWS) change and soil moisture (SM) from satellites provide an opportunity to improve model estimates through data assimilation. However, combining these two data sets is challenging due to the disparity in temporal and spatial resolution at both vertical and horizontal scale. For the first time, TWS observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and near‐surface SM observations from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) were jointly assimilated into a water balance model using the Ensemble Kalman Smoother from January 2010 to December 2013 for the Australian continent. The performance of joint assimilation was assessed against open‐loop model simulations and the assimilation of either GRACE TWS anomalies or SMOS SM alone. The SMOS‐only assimilation improved SM estimates but reduced the accuracy of groundwater and TWS estimates. The GRACE‐only assimilation improved groundwater estimates but did not always produce accurate estimates of SM. The joint assimilation typically led to more accurate water storage profile estimates with improved surface SM, root‐zone SM, and groundwater estimates against in situ observations. The assimilation successfully downscaled GRACE‐derived integrated water storage horizontally and vertically into individual water stores at the same spatial scale as the model and SMOS, and partitioned monthly averaged TWS into daily estimates. These results demonstrate that satellite TWS and SM measurements can be jointly assimilated to produce improved water balance component estimates.

Abstract. Observations of changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) obtained from the satellite mission GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) have frequently been used for water cycle studies and for the improvement of hydrological models by means of calibration and data assimilation. However, due to a low spatial resolution of the gravity field models, spatially localized water storage changes, such as those occurring in lakes and reservoirs, cannot properly be represented in the GRACE estimates. As surface storage changes can represent a large part of total water storage, this leads to leakage effects and results in surface water signals becoming erroneously assimilated into other water storage compartments of neighbouring model grid cells. As a consequence, a simple mass balance at grid/regional scale is not sufficient to deconvolve the impact of surface water on TWS. Furthermore, non-hydrology-related phenomena contained in the GRACE time series, such as the mass redistribution caused by major earthquakes, hamper the use of GRACE for hydrological studies in affected regions. In this paper, we present the first release (RL01) of the global correction product RECOG (REgional COrrections for GRACE), which accounts for both the surface water (lakes and reservoirs, RECOG-LR) and earthquake effects (RECOG-EQ). RECOG-LR is computed from forward-modelling surface water volume estimates derived from satellite altimetry and (optical) remote sensing and allows both a removal of these signals from GRACE and a relocation of the mass change to its origin within the outline of the lakes/reservoirs. The earthquake correction, RECOG-EQ, includes both the co-seismic and post-seismic signals of two major earthquakes with magnitudes above Mw9. We discuss that applying the correction dataset (1) reduces the GRACE signal variability by up to 75 % around major lakes and explains a large part of GRACE seasonal variations and trends, (2) avoids the introduction of spurious trends caused by leakage signals of nearby lakes when calibrating/assimilating hydrological models with GRACE, and (3) enables a clearer detection of hydrological droughts in areas affected by earthquakes. A first validation of the corrected GRACE time series using GPS-derived vertical station displacements shows a consistent improvement of the fit between GRACE and GNSS after applying the correction. Data are made available on an open-access basis via the Pangaea database (RECOG-LR: Deggim et al., 2020a, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.921851; RECOG-EQ: Gerdener et al., 2020b, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.921923).

Terrestrial water storage changes over the Pearl River Basin from GRACE and connections with Pacific climate variability

We use monthly measurements of time‐variable gravity from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite mission to quantify changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the Lena river basin, Eurasia, during the period April 2002 to September 2010. We estimate a TWS increase of 32 ± 10 km3/yr for the entire basin, equivalent to an increase in water thickness of 1.3 ± 0.4 cm/yr over a basin of 2.4 million km2. We compare TWS estimates from GRACE with time series of precipitation (P) minus evapotranspiration (ET) from ERA‐Interim reanalysis minus observational river discharge (R). We find an excellent agreement in annual and inter‐annual variability between the two time series. Furthermore, we find that a bias of −20 ± 10% in P‐ET is sufficient to effectively close the water budget with GRACE. When we account for this bias, the time series of cumulative TWS from GRACE and climatological data agree to within ±3.8 cm of water thickness, or ±9% of the mean annual P. The TWS increase is not uniform across the river basin and exhibits a peak, over an area of 502,400 km2, centered at 118.5°E, 62.5°N, and underlain by discontinuous permafrost. In this region, we attribute the observed TWS increase of 68 ± 19 km3 to an increase in subsurface water storage. This large subsurface water signal will have a significant impact on the terrestrial hydrology of the region, including increased baseflow and alteration of seasonal runoff.