Abstract
AbstractMost alluvial plains in the world are protected by flood defences, for example, embankments, whose primary aim is to reduce the probability of flooding of the protected areas. At the same time, however, the presence of embankments at one area influences hydraulic conditions of downstream areas located on the same river. These hydraulic interactions are often neglected in current flood risk management. The aim of this study is to explicitly acknowledge hydraulic interactions and investigate their impact on establishing optimal embankment heights along a stretch of the IJssel River. We find that the current approach leads to a single solution, while taking into account hydraulic interactions substantially expands the number of promising solutions. Furthermore, under a reference scenario, the current approach is in fact suboptimal with respect to both downstream locations and the system as a whole. Under uncertainty, it performs adequately from a system viewpoint, but poorly for individual locations, mostly due to risk overestimation downstream. Overall, the current approach proves to be too short‐sighted, because spatial trade‐offs among locations are neglected and alternative solutions remain hidden. Acknowledging the effect of hydraulic interactions provides policy makers with a broader and more comprehensive spectrum of flood risk management strategies.
Highlights
The alluvial plains along most large lowland rivers around the world are protected against flooding by embankments or other flood defences
Most alluvial plains in the world are protected by flood defences, for example, embankments, whose primary aim is to reduce the probability of flooding of the protected areas
We find that the current approach leads to a single solution, while taking into account hydraulic interactions substantially expands the number of promising solutions
Summary
The alluvial plains along most large lowland rivers around the world (e.g., the Rhine, the Po, and the Elbe River) are protected against flooding by embankments or other flood defences. Van Mierlo et al (2007) illustrate how potential breaches upstream lead to a reduction of flood load downstream These examples illustrate the existence of complex, and yet understudied, hydraulic interconnections between planned interventions (e.g., raising embankment height) upstream and the associated unintended consequences (e.g., higher water levels or increased flood damage) downstream. This highlights the importance of considering what in the present paper is referred to as ‘hydraulic system behaviour’, i.e., the change in hydraulic loads at one location as a consequence of the state of the embankment system at other locations (Van Mierlo et al, 2007; Vorogushyn, Lindenschmidt, Kreibich, Apel, & Merz, 2012)
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